Justin Pyvis

Econ PhD. Writing. Walking. Past lives as lead policy economist (WA Treasury) and macro analysis (Hong Kong).

[John Cochrane @JohnHCochrane]

Growth is not a strategy. Growth is what happens when free people are left alone to pursue their desires, constrained by respect for others property and liberty. I don’t live to fulfill some dreamers coercive “strategy”

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

Sorry, the Stiglitz chat was even more recent - January! https://t.co/56lpbL1m3S

[Jim Chalmers MP @JEChalmers]

Had a wide ranging conversation with Nobel-prize-winning economist Professor Joseph Stiglitz about intergenerational fairness and our Labor government’s economic plan in a time of global uncertainty.

If you’re interested, you can read our interview in @THEMONTHLY here: https://t.co/ZZPnO1UCwd

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

Your friendly reminder that Jim Chalmers is a big fan of Mazzucato and discussed policy with Stiglitz as recently as November. If you view his attacks on capital through their degrowth lens it makes perfect sense.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

Correct. https://t.co/NtwFOYvmtG

[Davey @TheRealDavey2]

The current 50% CGT discount is not a "benefit".

The Government has insisted that the existing 50% CGT discount is an unfair “benefit” – a giveaway tilted toward the wealthy that the Budget can no longer justify handing out, and which it is now time to take back. But there is a sleight of hand buried in that very framing, and it deserves to be named. The entire debate has been conducted on the premise that the 50 per cent discount is a benefit the taxpayer receives – something handed out, like a subsidy, that the Government may now sensibly withdraw. This framing should be rejected outright.

The discount is not money the Government gives to anyone. It is money the Government refrains from taking. Those are not the same thing, and the difference is not pedantic. The capital being taxed was earned, saved out of already-taxed income, and put at risk by the person who owns it. When the Government declines to tax half of the resulting gain, it is not bestowing a gift; it is simply leaving the taxpayer in possession of more of what was already theirs. To call that a “benefit” the taxpayer enjoys is to start from the assumption that the money belonged to the Government in the first place, and that anything the taxpayer keeps is a concession granted by the state’s generosity. It is precisely backwards. The default is not that the Government owns your capital and graciously lets you keep some. The default is that the capital is yours, and the tax is the imposition that must be justified.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

https://t.co/YhtPTTydLH

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

Horseshoe theory.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

"His reasoning is unknown." And then you follow it up with this. Ugh I hate clickbait.

[2001 Live @25YearsAgoLive]

Enron executive Lou Pai completes the sale of 340,000 shares of Enron stock, cashing out $250 million and formally leaving the company. His reasoning is unknown.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

@DrCameronMurray @SouthVarangian @urbanizationist Adjust for population and don't pick the base year as the start of a big economic downturn in NZ and it's already not as clear. Many, many other things also going on during this specific period of time.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

@kackles74 @MarkDiStef To be perfectly clear, I was responding to Mark's insinuation that Kiwis are moving across *because* Albo > Luxon, i.e. that the Budget's CGT changes aren't a big deal. That can't be true because Kiwis in Australia are already exempt from CGT.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

Kiwis don't pay capital gains tax when living in Australia.

[Mark Di Stefano @MarkDiStef]

You can say that again Matthew — 60,000 kiwis have migrated permanently here since Luxon became prime minister!!!

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

@MarkDiStef Higher wages, lower average income tax (up to ~A$150,000), no capital gains taxes on investments (NZ slugs residents an annual FIF tax). It's about the whole package; if you have a Kiwi passport it's very advantageous to make the move.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

@ZjubNZ @TaxPawspective Agree averaging's the consistent fix. But you're being generous to Treasury. Brown calls indexing a "concession", when it's just not over-taxing. That's spin. And Johnson's "interest-free loan" only makes sense if accrual is the correct base, which is contested and, IMO, wrong.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

And just like that, the YIMBY movement lost public support. Can we please stop injecting our normative preferences into this debate? Remove restrictions on supply. Productivity rises. Affordability rises. Nominal house prices may rise or fall.

[Jonathan O'Brien @jonobri]

It’s not complicated: house prices should go down.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

@peter_tulip I mean that headline says "on housing". If that was all Chalmers did, I'm not sure they'd be as opposed.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

@ZjubNZ Public choice hitting hard in this post.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

I'm sure net zero/taxes contributed. But Boags will continue to be made on the mainland (production started moving over in 2016). Tassie is a very small market. And contra the article, there are other breweries, probably with better tasting beer.

[Matt Barrie @matt_barrie]

Net zero Boags

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

@MHReddell @zdnzau Geneva does quite a bit and it's not even Switzerland's largest airport.

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

If Pocock had his way, we'd still be waiting to make sure our copper wires could handle email without driving up people's phone bills.

[David Pocock @DavidPocock]

The data centre boom might present opportunities for 🇦🇺, but we have to be honest about the downsides and have an actual plan to deal with them.

If new data centres are built without enough new energy and storage, households and businesses could end up paying the price through higher power bills. Their impact on water also needs to be considered.

Govt should ensure genuinely additional renewable energy is entering the grid before major new data centres begin drawing power.
https://t.co/B2e0ZJRmGy

[Justin Pyvis @JustinPyvis]

Good news for the RBA.