Justin

Political Consultant. Former City of Dallas Chief of Staff. My #txlege model, running here:

[Justin @JustinVos]

Redid my Texas Legislative Election Model. It accounts for a Dem +11 environment, factors in Cash On Hand (a candidate can increase their percentage by up to 3% based on this), how the district trends via the Texas Partisan Index, past election results, and how the incumbents vote record reflects the District.

Lean D, Dem Flips:
House District 34 - Villalobos
House District 118 - Lujan (open)

Lean R, Rep Flips:
Senate District 9 - Remhet

Tossups:
House District 121 - LaHood
House District 37 (Dem Flip) - Lopez
House District 112 - Button
House District 52 - Harris
House District 94 - Tinderholt (open)
House District 63 - Bumgarner

Model can be seen here:
https://t.co/GRuigl7qo8

#txlege

[Justin @JustinVos]

@RTR_bronin Land leases are usually a government scam. City of Dallas will lease land to people for $1 for 100 years. Just a form of tax abatement.

[Lia Assimakopoulos @Lassimak]

Here is the initial rendering of the Stars' planned arena and entertainment district at The Shops at Willow Bend in Plano:

[Justin @JustinVos]

1) Sports Teams want parking revenue, do not care about transit (although there are 4 bus routes going to this location and naturally they would have surge routes when the team moves there.

2) Games start at 7:30 on weekdays, after rush-hour. Slightly inconvenient for 30 to 40 weekday games.

3) Vacancy means nothing. The property sits conveniently between downtown Dallas and fastest growing region of the state. Victory Park and Uptown are the southern most regions of the new “loop” Frisco being the northern tip.

4) The area around city hall is failing because developers are not developing the land adjacent to the building. (https://t.co/7rxUHWSW5F)

The other reason is that over 85% of the cities homeless have been moved there due to the city putting all their homeless services within a 1.5 mile radius of City Hall. The Bridge (0.4 miles away), Dallas Life (0.5 miles away), Stewpot (1.4 miles away), Our Calling (1.4 miles away), Austin Street Center (1.5 miles away)…

The city could take drastic steps to solve these problems but it would take real courage. Push developers to develop their promised projects in a timely matter, move the homeless support services to a wrap-around service model at the executive airport. Incentives building owners to convert office spaces into mixed use buildings. Create a more walkable environment to promote an eat, work, play conclave (they could be creative maybe turn parts of main or commerce into a pedestrian only road.)

[Justin @JustinVos]

@shermfirm @lukemaciastx @KyleBiedermann He had competitive general elections in 2018 and 2020.

[Justin @JustinVos]

@TXTylerNorris Why couldn’t she fit this all on one page. This is maddening.

[Justin @JustinVos]

@EBrooksUncut At some point we’ll get Woodruff back.

[Justin @JustinVos]

This is probably correct.

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

TEXAS POLL By @QuantusInsights

SEN
🟥 Ken Paxton: 45%
🟦 James Talarico: 43%
––
GOV
🟥 Greg Abbott: 49%
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 41%
––
LT GOV
🟥 Dan Patrick: 49%
🟦 Vikki Goodwin: 40%
––
AG
🟥 Mayes Middleton: 47%
🟦 Nathan Johnson: 39%

6/3-4 | LV | R42-D30
https://t.co/vug0dhLB9O

[Cryptid Politics @CryptidPolitics]

The Dallas Mavericks drafting Luka Doncic AND Jalen Brunson in the same draft AND not having either one of them now is generational incompetence.

[Justin @JustinVos]

Downtown Dallas in two images. If you know you know. Has nothing to do with sports teams.

[Justin @JustinVos]

@TheUNT6 Games start at 7:30PM

[ESPN Madison @ESPNMadison]

Pablo Sanchez appears and the Brewers rattle off 7 runs in the 2nd inning…

Coincidence? #ThisIsMyCrew

[Bral Turlick @kneary22]

What’s funny about the whole Pablo Sanchez situation is that people have zero understanding of his purpose, history and significance.

[Tom Tiffany @TomTiffanyWI]

I regret to inform @WisDems that you cannot milk a bull.

But considering they think men can get pregnant, I guess thinking you can milk a bull tracks too.

[Justin @JustinVos]

Businesses operate with common sense unlike the Dallas city government. If anyone used the slightest bit of discernment this was a foregone conclusion.

[Justin @JustinVos]

The Dallas Mavericks are going to Valley View. To believe they are going to build at the Dallas City Hall site you would have to believe that all these things will happen:

The City of Dallas agrees to sell its prime City Hall property.

Voters approve disposing of the adjacent plaza (protected parkland).

Additional nearby land—currently earmarked for developer Mike Hoque’s Newpark mixed-use district—is sold or repurposed for the Mavericks.

The Bridge Homeless Recovery Center is successfully relocated from its downtown site.

Only then could the team assemble the 30–50+ acres required for a full arena plus entertainment district. In today’s sports business environment, franchises increasingly serve as anchors for large-scale real estate development.

Team owners profit far more from the surrounding mixed-use land (retail, offices, hotels, housing) than from the arena or team operations alone.

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Early vote in California as of May 30:
Republican: 154,820 (41.3%)
Democratic: 154,276 (41.2%)
Other/No Party: 65,826 (17.6%)

https://t.co/LoaFtH5fgo

[FischerKing @FischerKing64]

These Texas Senate candidates illustrate the bind democrats are in. They put forward white male candidates, hoping that just being white and male will be enough to warm over some moderate Republicans. But they always promote policies that are very off-putting to people on the right. Beto wanted gun restrictions, Talarico talks about God being "non-binary." You have to support this kind of thing to rise in the democrat party - but you can't win on those policies in a state like Texas.

[Justin @JustinVos]

@LelandFreeman Team Braums!

[Justin @JustinVos]

@chriswithans @Alt_Azn Ruined the Lion King Super Nintendo video game too

[FischerKing @FischerKing64]

Pratt is running against people who have had serious sounding titles - but their ‘experience’ is turning LA into an open sewer.

[Justin @JustinVos]

Jon Bonck beats Shelly deZevallos.

Lujan up over Carlos De La Cruz. <- race to watch.

#txlege