Keith Alan

Family 1st | Content Strategies 🎬 🎙️🎥 | Fishing Fanatic 🎣 | Chart Surfer🏄‍♂️ | CoFounder @TeamBlacknox 💼 | CoFounder @MI_Algos🔥📈📉
No financial advice

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

Where will $BTC price go from here?https://t.co/WjxKDuFMaa

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

This is one of the nastiest traps I've ever seen for bitcoin:native.

Here's what I'm watching in the aftermath. https://t.co/OmukVv3SXp

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

After a D close below the 50-Day SMA, $BTC bulls are fighting to reclaim it. If they fail to do so by tonight's close, I'm looking for a support test in the $78k - $80k range.

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

You forgot to mention that due to his concerns of a Blue Wave dominating mid-terms, EL TACO will say and do anything he can to pump the market, and change perceptions including keeping oil prices in check, minimizing headlines about wars, Epstein files, ICE, Ballrooms, and AI threats, and promising $5000 checks to voters for a Republican win. If the Blue Wave succeeds, he will challenge the outcome by screaming of cheating and fraud with precisely zero evidence.

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

I’VE WATCHED BITCOIN SINCE 2017 - I’VE NEVER SEEN THIS https://t.co/m9v2cRs1xe
I've been studying BTC intently since 2017, and I can't recall a time where I saw liquidity and orderflow dynamics choreographed as well, or as blatantly as this.
Wednesday we saw what appeared to be an epic battle in the Bitcoin order book, and the market watched to see if it would lead to a durable breakout.
The day began with a buy wall of BTC price approaching the Q4 Open at $83.5k and a buy wall appearing at $83k, push price higher, squeeze shorts, and bait late buyers into a bull trap.

But shortly after that buy wall appeared at $83k and price began to move up, large blocks of ask liquidity started stacking above $84k with secondary resistance laddered up to $85,250. Price then ate through resistance at $84k before support replenished at that level, corralling active traders into a very narrow range - at that point the bull trap was baited and set. After spending roughly 7 hours trading in an elevated range and luring more traders into longs, price rejected from $85k and a selloff began that unwound a week’s worth of market buying and retraced the entire move. The cascade that followed invalidated the attempt and liquidated over $500M in late longs.

Now price is fighting for support at the 50-Day SMA for the 9th time in a 2 week period. Before you react and get caught in the next directional trap, remind yourself that wicks don’t count - confirmation comes after closes.
If you missed a short from the top of the range, this isn’t the place to chase one, because price is flirting with a technical support/resistance flip at the 50-Day SMA, and it certainly isn’t the place to open a long - for the exact same reason.

BTC price can develop 3 different ways from here:
Find support before a CHoCH at the LL, close above the 50-Day SMA, then aim for a retest of resistance in the range between the 21-Day SMA and the Q4 Open

Lose support at the LL, validate a CHoCH from HH/HL and extend the downtrend
Chop in the range above the adjacent low and below the adjacent high - high risk

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

At first glance, this break above the 4Hr trend, the prior consolidation range, and the Q4 Open appears to be extremely bullish for bitcoin:native, however momentum is beginning to fade as RSI approaches overbought territory.

Zooming out to the D chart we can see that it's one intra-day candle still searching for acceptance.

Regardless of where the wicks go, validation doesn't come before the close.

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

Is Bitcoin going to breakout, or is this another fakeout ahead of the TradFi open?

bitcoin:native is attempting to break above the consolidation range and reclaim the 21-Day SMA.

A ladder of sell walls stacked above $84k is impeding upward progress in the order book, but so far they haven't been challenged because the Timescape R/S Flip line at the Q4 Open has served up another rejection at $83,555.

What breaks first - $82,750 or $84,250?

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

We won't know with 100% certainty until after the breakout has been confirmed. Unfortunately, we can't trade hindsight, so we must use the available data to determine if this is a range to push buttons in.

My outlook...
In low timeframes - trading risk is elevated in this range
In high timeframes - DCA below 50-Day SMA and HODL

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

Is Bitcoin building a durable base—or simply delaying a deeper flush?

Another rejection at the 21-Day SMA has created another lower high, sending bitcoin:native price back into the consolidation range for fresh test of the 50-Day SMA.

So far, repeated defenses of the 50-Day show that buyers are still protecting this range. IMO - That makes it worth watching for incremental DCA entries into a longer-term position.

The caveat: bulls still haven’t reclaimed the Quarterly Open near $83.5k. Until they do, downside risk remains elevated.

If the 50-Day SMA fails, the next structural support levels are:

• Macro trendline: ~$78.3k
• 50-Week SMA + range low: $75k–$76.1k
• Full range failure: $69k–$72k flush target

Does the 50-Day hold again, or are we headed for the lower support zones before a durable breakout?

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

@jameslavish

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

After a volatile morning (Eastern Time) bitcoin:native price has stablized, but don't allow yourself to gain a false sense of security.

After a flush below $80k, reclaiming the 50-Day SMA is indeed bullish for bitcoin:native, however the fact that price made a Lower Low, and the relief rally was met with a hard rejection from the Timescape R/S Flip Line at $82.5k increases the probability that we'll see another support test before a clean break above the Yearly Open at $87.5k - If price can flip the Quarterly Open at $83.5k, I'll reevaluate.

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

@eamunoz_72 Here's the latest BTC analysis. https://t.co/9KbOMG9FYT

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

Here's the description.

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

@eamunoz_72 It's not there yet. Been experimenting with new edit software so it's taking a little longer to post. The edit will be posted today.

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

Buckle up for another round of economic data.

Yesterday's report triggered a selloff across crypto and TradFi markets. Let's see if today's metrics fuel more downward momentum or trigger a reversion back above the 50-Day SMA.

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

UPTOBER FAIL - WHEN WILL BITCOIN PRICE RECOVER? https://t.co/dPEoPDk0ca

[Keith Alan @KAProductions]

Equities are pairing back gains alongside bitcoin:native on hotter than expected inflation numbers.

But Bitcoin Dominance is holding above 60% while ethereum:native and Alts dump.