I write the Onchain Edge — a weekly 5-min crypto breakdown + Bitcoin dashboard to help crypto traders cut noise, manage risk, and trade with conviction.
@RHerman One thing in backtesting that works really well is to split your backtesting data into two sets. The first timeframe for backtesting, the second timeframe is what you use to forward test your model. Also look into MAE and MFE
Bitcoin onchain metrics worked differently in 2017 than 2024.
MVRV hit 3.5 at the 2018 top. It barely crossed 2.8 in 2024.
Static thresholds miss cycle tops.
I rebuilt OnchainEdge from scratch.
I didn't rebuild this to fit the backtest. I rebuilt it to fix the flaws. The thresholds were broken. The sell logic was buggy. Flat dollar deployment didn't scale with portfolio.
v2 adapts. Percentage-based deployment scales.
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He created the most powerful financial system of the 21st century.
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Here’s the story of the ghost wallet that could crash the entire market:
🧵
So who is Satoshi?
Maybe Hal Finney.
Maybe someone we’ve never heard of.
Maybe it doesn’t matter.
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A system so strong, its creator had to disappear.