Kerry Boyd Anderson

Membership Editor at War on the Rocks

[War on the Rocks @WarOnTheRocks]

Most Lebanese can't explain why they're at war. The strategic decisions are being made in Tehran. (Members Only)

Listen here: https://t.co/hoLY0EiQkG

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

I love the book Persepolis. Satrapi was an outstanding artist and storyteller.

[Karim Sadjadpour @ksadjadpour]

RIP Marjane Satrapi, a brilliant mind and a wonderful soul, gone far too soon. Like many Iranians she remained dedicated to her homeland despite decades in exile:

“I call Iran home because no matter how long I live in France, and despite the fact that I feel also French after all these years, to me the word ‘home’ has only one meaning: Iran.”

“No matter how much I am in love with Paris and its indescribable beauty, Tehran with all its ugliness will in my eyes forever be the ‘bride’ of all cities around the world.”

https://t.co/yu63M4aorC

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Check out the War on the Rocks explainer on the war with Iran. Updated weekly! https://t.co/JMEqvz0xGw

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Color me cynical, but it seems like there's no way Hezbollah would agree. And Israel knows that. So negotiations are mostly to display to Washington that Israel is trying to be reasonable while knowing it can continue the war.

[Barak Ravid @BarakRavid]

Update: Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon ceasefire terms. My report on @axios
https://t.co/YHUG2svz4a

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

As always, it was very interesting talking with @faysalitani about Lebanon!
https://t.co/LvXJs5atvi

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

💯👇

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Listen I think it's entirely plausible that Trump said this to Netanyahu. It's almost a rite of passage for every American president since Clinton

But one thing we should remember from the Biden years is that the "POTUS swore at Netanyahu" news cycle is often followed, some days or weeks later, by Netanyahu finding a way to continue doing the thing that prompted the call in the first place https://t.co/w3Jyn0sAFl

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Does the Quad still matter? We asked four experts to consider the perspectives from the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan. (for War on the Rocks members) https://t.co/ZEqJBxf4DB

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Kind of remarkable that America maintained a no-contact policy for decades only to have, in the past eight months, face-to-face meetings between presidential envoys and Hamas leaders, and now apparently a White House phone call with Hezbollah

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Essential listening!

[Ryan Evans @EvansRyan202]

Re-upping the latest episode of the pod. We have episodes forthcoming on China, European security, US drone training, and Army special ops

All free. Click here to subscribe via your podcast app of choice

https://t.co/6OY1oOJjJu

[Joyce Karam @Joyce_Karam]

This is a one big regional mess:

- Iran saying violation of Lebanon ceasefire is violation of Iran ceasefire and will pull out of talks on extending its ceasefire
- Lebanon Gov wants ceasefire but Hezbollah not agreeing to the term and Beirut stuck in spiral
- Israel still getting hit hard in north by drones and rockets. Netanyahu about to respond by striking Beirut and after consulting US
- Saudi trying to push for restraint while Kuwait in line of fire

We re back on escalation ladder

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Tasnim News Agency - affiliated with the IRGC - reports that #Iran's negotiating team is suspending the exchange of texts and messages with the US through mediator Pakistan, citing ongoing Israeli military operations in #Lebanon.

Tehran's stated ground is that Lebanon was a precondition for any ceasefire arrangement, and that arrangement has now been violated. Iranian negotiators say talks will not resume until Israeli operations Lebanon stop and Israeli forces withdraw from occupied Lebanese territory.

The announcement also carries a threat: full closure of the Strait of Hormuz - after some incremental ease of transit over the past couple of weeks - and "activation of the Bab al-Mandab front" as punitive measures against Israel and its allies.

This comes days after reports of a tentative US-Iran MOU to extend the ceasefire 60 days and launch nuclear talks. That was the cautious optimism of last week, but this is what followed it.

What this suggests is that the U.S. - and likely Israel - have consistently underestimated how structurally central Lebanon is to Tehran's position. The assumption appears to have been that enough pressure on Iran would render its Lebanon commitments rhetorical. That calculation looks wrong.

Lebanon matters to Iran both strategically and ideologically, and the pressure from the Islamic Republic's own support base to act - not just signal - on Lebanon has been building. Accepting a deal while Israel continues operations there would carry serious domestic costs. That's not a detail Tehran can paper over.

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

@HamidRezaAz @rmslim We ran an interesting piece making that point on Lebanon https://t.co/6GPZ2YvBAe

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

With events in Iran and Lebanon, much of the world's attention has shifted away from Gaza. But the conflict there isn't over. I talked with @elgindy_ about the situation in Gaza
https://t.co/0kJaXwO72C

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Very interesting episode on Germany's proposal for associate E.U. membership for Ukraine

[War on the Rocks @WarOnTheRocks]

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently proposed partial E.U. membership for Ukraine. Ukraine’s refusal was a surprise to few. (Members Only)

Listen here: https://t.co/egRo9NUimc

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Who knows? But this is pretty interesting

[Ali Hashem علي هاشم @Alihashem]

A well-informed source told me that Trump’s Truth Social post about lifting the blockade was, in fact, the first condition before moving to the next steps of the understanding.
According to the source, the Iranian side insisted on a formal public announcement first. Trump appears to have framed it as a secondary issue, while Tehran sees it as a key confidence-building measure before entering the more sensitive files.
So far, there has been no direct discussion of the nuclear file itself. The process is expected to move gradually through an MOU, where every step will be matched by a reciprocal step.
The same sources say a ceasefire announcement between Hezbollah and Israel is also expected as part of the broader framework currently taking shape.

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Check out the War on the Rocks page dedicated to analysis on the war with Iran — updated weekly!
https://t.co/JMEqvz0xGw

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Interesting 👇

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

This is quite in line with #Iran’s plans for the post-war regulation of the Strait of Hormuz.

Tehran has also denied any intention to establish a “toll booth” system and instead speaks of fees related to environmental protection, navigational safety, and other maritime services.

The emphasis appears to be less on generating revenue and more on securing recognition of Iran’s regulatory role in the Strait.

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Really good NYT episode on seafarers stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz closure: https://t.co/cRAsV5Tbx9

[Kerry Boyd Anderson @KBAresearch]

Very thought-provoking piece on Gaza from @andymilburn8
https://t.co/mcI4DLDs6X