I wrote this thread because I think standard trade economics misses the main effect.
It works with models where substitution to domestic alternatives is fast, and our reliance on foreign input is bounded by GDP share (15%).
These assumptions are not good for supply networks.
So much of what people think about China's economy, trends in manufacturing jobs, and global surpluses/deficits is both factually confused and economically confused. This excellent @BaldwinRE piece confines itself to some of the factual issues. https://t.co/5IvwDXZkd6
Excessive force. Unnecessary arrests. The policing problem seems intractable.
A new large-scale RCT with Chicago police offers a glimmer of hope. And insight into *one* overlooked reason (obviously not the only reason) for the problems of policing
https://t.co/Ms7FpOFfSO🧵