KAW

[Metaplanero @metaplanero]

1/ Everyone debates MetaPlanet's stock price. Almost nobody can explain the machine underneath it

In 24 months a near-dead Tokyo hotel became Asia's largest Bitcoin holder (40,177 BTC) using one repeatable engine

Here's how the capital machine actually works 👇

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

A story most people in this space don’t know:

Years before #Metaplanet, @DylanLeClair walked away from a business degree to study one thing obsessively. He published on-chain and macro work on a public feed, for free, when nobody was paying and before treasury companies even existed.

He was (and still is) young, yet had the foresight, curiosity and discipline to self-teach and articulate a view that was far from obvious at the time.

The world is now catching up to where he already was. I remember the day he announced he was joining Metaplanet as Director of Bitcoin Strategy — and having watched closely ever since, I’ve been impressed over and over.

My single most important investment criterion: find people smarter and more capable than me, then align with them.

I’m on team Dylan.

$MPJPY $MTPLF

[Ben Stong MD @BenjaminStongMD]

Do you know what you own? Whether you own $ASST or $MSTR or $MPJPY it’s important to understand what you have. Each one uses leverage, it’s a different type of leverage. ASST runs on the Preferred debt, with infinite duration. On top of that @strategy has an unassailable stack with infinite optionality. @Metaplanet is building an Asian investment bank capitalized on $BTC. Bought more shares today🫡 @DylanLeClair @gerovich

[云映萱 @yx53834975]

讲得太清楚了，一针见血！

[Metaplanero @metaplanero]

1/ Japan's crypto market just consolidated overnight

SBI Holdings is acquiring Bitbank for ¥46.7B (~$289M)

Combined with SBI VC Trade, the group now holds ~¥1.1 trillion in custody across 2.92M accounts, the largest regulated crypto operator in Japan, past bitFlyer (¥960B) and Coincheck (¥800B)

What does it mean for Metaplanet? 👇

[Yves-André Graf @GrafYves]

Signal amongst the noise.

@thebtcpharaoh hits the nail on the head.

The evidence points to something more fundamental: the market repricing duration risk across Strategy's entire capital stack (and, by extension, Strive $ASST).

What's fascinating is that $MSTR has become a real-world laboratory for capital structure innovation. Common equity, convertibles, fixed-rate perpetuals, variable-rate perpetuals, and each has a different sensitivity to Bitcoin, interest rates, and credit risk.

This wasn't just a Bitcoin selloff. It was a reminder that these preferreds are financial instruments first. When the market reprices the risk-free rate, perpetual securities with no maturity can move sharply, even if Bitcoin itself hasn't changed.

The takeaway for investors: owning $STRC, $STRF, $STRD, $STRK, or $SATA isn't simply another way to gain Bitcoin exposure. You're also expressing a view on duration, credit spreads, and Strategy's ability to keep optimizing its capital structure.

Understanding which risk you're being paid to take is just as important as understanding Bitcoin.

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

First Mover Takes the Arrows. Last Mover Takes the Notes.

$STRC closed at $88.6 on Thursday, after briefly touching $82.6 at the session lows — a record low, ~17% below the $100 it's designed to hold. At the low, the effective yield was 13.9%, and at the close it was 13.0%.

Similarly, $SATA closed at $97.7 after briefly hitting $92.9. At the low, the effective yield was 14.0%, and at the close it was 13.3%. So essentially, the rate differential between SATA & STRC has pretty much closed. The market is not demanding $ASST pay a premium (for now) despite its much smaller size, likely due to the consistency / track record of their dividend reserve and higher frequency dividend payments (daily vs bi-weekly).

As we all know, STRC and SATA are perpetual preferreds that "seek" par through a variable rate mechanism. While price holds par, the ATM prints shares and buys BTC. And while it may look like (and has been marketed as) a money-market instrument, it isn't. It's perpetual duration disguised as a stablecoin.

So when Warsh walked into his first FOMC and took the 2026 cut off the table — hike odds now ~66%, 2-year yields at a one-year high — the repricing of the discount rate hit perpetual paper hardest. Add a leverage flush — not just from holders who parked "cash" there, but from degens and other defi platforms levered against the paper on the assumption it carried no risk — and the peg did what soft pegs do under stress: it cascaded down.

Now — let's talk about #Metaplanet. No preferred listed yet. Everyone's been frustrated at how 'late' they are. Japanese rules demand stable recurring cash flow to fund obligations, and even monthly dividends have never been done there. So as a result the MARS and Mercury listings have slipped compared to initial guidance.

But late is a gift. Lucky or not, it's been a blessing in disguise.

Metaplanet gets to design after watching two live instruments go through various stress tests — not to mention, they have the opportunity to take advantage of much lower bitcoin prices (assuming they capture this bear) and fund in yen. Although not entirely like-for-like given the embedded option, Mercury pays a 4.9% fixed dividend. So put that next to STRC's 11.50% and SATA's 13% and you see the power and advantage of a funding base in JPY, compared to USD.

And the critical differentiating factor here, is that the coupon doesn't have to come from selling BTC or issuing more equity. Metaplanet runs an operating business that scales with the size of its bitcoin treasury. Its Bitcoin Income Generation desk generated ~¥2.97B in Q1 — and via Project Nova and the Siiibo acquisition (now Metaplanet Securities), that income stack will expand into fees and platform revenue that don't depend on the BTC price.

So with that in mind, I think we've learned a few things over the past couple of weeks that can be used to Metaplanet's advantage when they finally launch MARS, to set it up for even better success:

1. Fund the coupon from operations. Pre-fund a dividend reserve (or maintain enough continuous reserve in the BIG bucket — and increasingly the wider Project Nova income stack) so a temporary depeg never forces a bitcoin sale or non-accretive issuance. That in and of itself reduces the probability of a depeg.

2. Cap duration. A perpetual with a slow reset is the worst of both. Add a call/step-up or a faster reset cadence so the instrument tracks rates instead of absorbing them in price.

3. Don't wire your buy engine to par. If issuance dies below par, you've built a machine that doesn’t work when its potentially most accretive to activate it. Retain optionality, the lower price is an effective rate increase anyway.

4. Aim for the highest frequency distributions possible — there is room for further innovation here, which will further reduce the funding cost. Whether directly or indirectly (via 3rd party platforms), find ways to offer holders streaming dividends.

5. Market it honestly. "Par-seeking high-yield perpetual." The holders who thought they owned money market funds may never come back.

The Pharaoh's view: Metaplanet, the latecomer, gets to ship version three (following STRC and SATA) — in the cheapest funding currency on earth, with an operating business behind the coupon. The first mover takes the arrows. The last mover takes the notes.

$MPJPY $MTPLF @gerovich @DylanLeClair

[THE BITCOIN PHARAOH @thebtcpharaoh]

Very important post on #Metaplanet $MPJPY $MTPLF

You're not paying attention to what's happening at this Japanese hotel company.

[Jeremy Garcia @jerimican5445]

💪 @UncleDividends

[Ben Stong MD @BenjaminStongMD]

Why did @Metaplanet buy a $30M stake in $JPYC Inc, a Yen denominated stablecoin company?

The obvious: Metaplanet will use the Yen denominated Stablecoin to transact digitally in Japan. JPYC represents an upgrade to the legacy banking system. Although legacy banks may use JPYC to improve the current custody, lending, and payment systems, it also provides MP independence from the legacy rails.

The conversion: Metaplanet will generate yields in Yen via JPYC. Because they are investors, they will get relief on the fees associated with transactions in JPYC creating higher yields. JPYC can be converted to USDC.

The Arbitrage: MP has an automated trading desk based in Miami, Metaplanet Asset Management. They will probably establish a native trading desk in Japan. This will enable them to arbitrage the FX (foreign exchange) rates in real time 24/7/365 between $JPYC and $USDC: The Yen Carry trade amplified to buy more $BTC and increase the treasury.

Income generation > more BTC > yield products grow > more income to pay interest on dividends > buy more BTC > recursive loop over and over.

This works in both bull and bear markets and gives $MPJPY further optionality to increase CEBE BTC yield in any market.

[Metaplanero @metaplanero]

1/ Yesterday Dylan LeClair, Director of BTC Strategy at Metaplanet, posted this:

https://t.co/UnybLjxTei

That tweet is not random. It's a direct hint at how MARS will probably launch.

Let me explain why 👇

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

Metaplanet was a dying hotel company.

Now they hold 40k+ BTC and just bought a whole securities firm for $13M to start slinging Bitcoin bonds & yield products to every salaryman in Japan.

Glow-up of the fucking century.

Japan’s about to get violently orange-pilled while Metaplanet prints on both sides.

[Metaplanero @metaplanero]

Read this great thread to complement my post today, highly recommended 👇

[Peter Duan @BTCBULLRIDER]

Metaplanet just paid $13M for a little known business that never turned a profit.

While the market saw it as rounding error, the astute investor realized this is the most important license in Japanese retail capital markets.

Here's why the market missed it (and how it can become your edge).

A 🧵:

[Metaplanero @metaplanero]

1/ Everyone thinks Siiibo is how Metaplanet will sell BTC products to all of Japan

It isn't

Siiibo's own FAQ restricts the platform to investors with ¥10M+ in financial assets (top 25% of Japanese households)

The actual mass retail path is something different and most analysts haven't traced it

Here's how it works 👇

[Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair]

With Pending Acquisition of Siiibo Securities, Metaplanet Poised to Bring Bitcoin Yield to Japanese Households; Would Represent First Step in Plan to Create of Bitcoin-Centric Ecosystem in Japan - Benchmark Equity Research

[増田隆幸｜NADA NEWS編集長 @masuda0327]

メタプラネットの証券会社買収についてコラムを書きました（私事で1週間強、休みだったので3週間ぶり。）
ビットコイントレジャリーから、金融プラットフォームへ。金商法移行を見据えた拡張となりそうです。
https://t.co/P3w54fUcsy

[Metaplanero @metaplanero]

Metaplanet 3350 +12% upside and DN3 +7%. Friday’s news seems to be getting a positive reaction.

Some guy said he wanted to ‘see if this actually showed up in the price’, all condescending and now he’s deleted the tweet. I was looking for it to reply with this information.

You may like or dislike Metaplanet, you might even be losing money because you entered at an incoherent level when the price didn’t match the fundamentals. But what you can’t do is dismiss a BTCTC that is actually building a Bitcoin‑based ecosystem.

Just a reminder: it’s not all about stacking BTC like headless chickens. It’s far better to build a solid capital structure that goes beyond simple accumulation.

[GraveyardGamma @GraveyardGamma]

Metaplanet are going to miss its 100,000 Bitcoin target this year. Truth hurts. I own it anyway, and the reason why is inherently bullish.

My thoughts are the company holds 40,177 BTC and has told the market it will reach 100,000 by December and 210,000 by the end of 2027. To clear this year's number they need roughly 60,000 more coins, about 3.8 billion dollars at current prices. Next year's leg is another 7 billion. That is a ten billion dollar acquisition programme, and the engine built to fund it has stalled.

That engine is the moving strike warrant facility, Japan's version of an at-the-market raise, authorised for up to 5.4 billion dollars. Its defining feature is also its current problem: it only issues accretively when the stock trades above the value of the Bitcoin it already holds. Right now Metaplanet trades at roughly 0.88 times its Bitcoin on an enterprise basis. Below that line, selling equity destroys Bitcoin per share, so the company correctly refuses to use it. The primary funding rail for the entire accumulation plan is switched off, by design, exactly when the targets demand it most. Issuance discipline is the right call. It also makes the December number unreachable on the current share price.

This is why the Siiibo Securities acquisition is the most important thing the company has done, and why it is being underpriced as a 13 million dollar footnote. The strategic problem Metaplanet had to solve was circular: it cannot buy aggressively until the stock re-rates, and the stock does not re-rate until the market believes accumulation will continue. Siiibo breaks the loop. A licensed Type I securities operation lets Metaplanet originate and distribute Bitcoin-linked bonds, security tokens, and treasury-backed preferred shares directly into Japanese households, a funding channel that works whether or not the common equity trades at a premium.They are building a second rail precisely because the first one fails below net asset value.

My base case is therefore a path. Through the back half of this year, accumulation runs on debt and the 500 million dollar Bitcoin-backed credit line rather than equity, taking holdings to somewhere around 60,000 to 70,000 BTC by December. Short of the 100,000 goal, but still close to 50 %  growth on the stack. The genuine inflection is sequenced into the next three quarters: upper house passage of Japan's FIEA bill that reclassifies crypto as a regulated security, the Siiibo close on July 13, the eighth quarter of income-business track record landing in November that clears the exchange's stated objection to the preferred listings, and the Mars and Mercury preferreds re-filing into a 1,190 trillion yen pool of household savings earning nothing. As those land, the multiple recovers above 1.0, the warrant engine switches back on, and the preferred and securities rails open in parallel. That combination is what carries the company toward 150,000 to 180,000 BTC by the end of 2027, near the 210,000 target but most realistically a step behind it.

The investable insight is that the accumulation target and the share price are not two questions. They are one. Metaplanet can only resume buying at scale once the stock recovers, and the stock recovers as the catalysts let it, which means forward Bitcoin per share and the re-rating are the same event observed twice. at 0.88 times its own coins, its a levered Bitcoin accumulator that just bought the one piece of infrastructure that keeps the engine running through a sub-NAV winter. Miss the target, win the decade. I am positioned for the second one.

I promise you, this could be entirely wrong and it’s just my usual approach of stepping back and thinking about things. Make up your own mind.

(p.s I have been nothing but right so far) Would absolutely love to be wrong here and they smash their target. Let’s see

[RB @market2kk]

Metaplanet is moving from "Bitcoin collector" to "financial factory" by acquiring Siiibo Securities. Metaplanet is fast tracking its ability to build regulated Bitcoin-based investment products in Japan. It’s a major shift in strategy with this acquisition ₿ #Bitcoin #Metaplanet