KaldurCrypto

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Nothing has changed with my $BTC swing long.

I'm expecting to hold this for 1.5–2 years.

I expect BTC above 80K in Q1 next year, and above 110K around Q4 2027.

~488 days to go.

If you can't be patient, don't follow me. However, you might regret it later.

[NoName @WhaleNoName]

🚨 FACT: BTC BEAR MARKETS LAST EXACTLY 365 DAYS

Another fact - bull markets last exactly 1064 days

Look at the chart

This pattern has repeated three cycles in a row without missing

And now we're currently on day 255 of this bear market

Good news: We still have 100+ days prepare money before the bottom is in
Bad news: Most traders will go bust before then

The final stretch of every bear cycle is designed to break conviction

Red candles, fake bounces, "Bitcoin is dead" headlines - all of it peaks in the last 100 days

That's not a coincidence - that's the flush that creates the next bull market

I'm not going bust

I predicted the BTC 2025 ATH (check the pinned thread)

All the local moves and bear market patterns you could have known too if you'd been following me

The next updates will be the most important ones as we're standing on the verge of a structure change

I'll let you know as soon as I start actively loading spot

Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner

[shinigamiXBT @shinigamiXBT]

30mins of alpha

today's free stream done on @shinicord

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

Bitcoin Bottom Indicators to Watch

[The Order Book @OrderBookShow]

Tradermayne lays out the precise allocation strategy for deploying 100k into bitcoin:native on the way down.

"You want to deploy a hundred thousand dollars into spot Bitcoin only. Okay. Maybe you put in 10 to 20 upon the breakdown into, you know, the mid 50s, and then around 50k, maybe you put in another 20 to 30k, okay, so at this point you're halfway deployed. And then we get down to 40K, and then you put in your remaining spot, or maybe you put in, I don't know, 30 to 40 here. And then if it dips even a little lower, maybe an extra 10."

Feat. @Tradermayne @krakenpro

[Ardi @ArdiNSC]

$BTC

One thing I've noticed from years of backtesting Bitcoin is just how reliable weekly RSI divergence has become for identifying when a cycle top is approaching.

In both the 2021 and 2025 cycle, RSI began making macro lower highs while price continued pushing to fresh highs.

Momentum was fading relatively aggressively, even as we saw price grinding higher to reach new all-time highs.

By the time the third RSI drive completed, the divergence with price was quite significant, and both cycles were followed by sizeable corrections within a short period of time.

2017 was the slight outlier, largely because Bitcoin was still in a very early stage of adoption, with enough momentum behind it to push roughly 100x over a few years.

But we've started to see over the last few cycles, that once RSI starts diverging on the weekly, the probability that the cycle is entering its final stages begins increasing.

Your job now is to remember it for the next cycle.

[Killa @KillaXBT]

Bitcoin will create a ATH between next year October & February 2028.

Do as you wish with that information.

[TechLead @techleadhd]

Why I Sold All My Bitcoin... it's over.

(Full video below)

[Mayne @Tradermayne]

bitcoin:native

Assuming this bear market plays out like every other one.

Buying in the deep fibs (61.8-78.6) has always been good long term value.

4 year cycle in control.

[KaldurCrypto @KaldurCrypto]

@BluntedBeats Will it ever go back to ath next cycle?

[Peter @peterwong_xyz]

Stop Waiting

[Minty @DeFiMinty]

My Crypto Cheat Sheet

[JACKIS @i_am_jackis]

Some bitcoin:native metrics show bottoming signals, while the others signal a further drop

Are we bottomed here during a historicly negative sentiment? Or are we about to fall of a cliff amidst the $STRC worries?

Let's look at those metrics 👇 short 🧵

[XO @Trader_XO]

Why a high win rate isnt the holy grail?

Ok nothing new here but just sharing from my own experience:

In 2018, when I first started trading with leverage, I made the same mistake many new traders make, which is ultimately trying to chase a high win rate and if it wasnt a high win rate, it wasnt good enough.

A few losses would throw me off my process leading to over-leveraging, adjust entries on the fly, taking unplanned trades or skipping planned trades - just to name a few.

What's key to understand is that profitability isn’t about avoiding losses. It’s about expectancy.

Consider a simple model:

Account size: $100,000
Risk per trade: 1% ($1,000)
Win rate: 45% (45 wins, 55 losses)
Reward/Risk: +2R on wins, -1R on losses
Outcome after 100 trades: $135,000 (+35%)
Expectancy: +0.35R per trade

Even with a win rate below 50%, this system has positive expectancy, carries edge, and produces profits.

It isn’t flawless, yet there is so much room for improvement with a focus on trade selection, timing, and risk allocation, applying a better filter to select A+ trades and sizing up on them.

But the foundation is solid. Journaling and reviewing are what transform a basic edge into a sharper, more consistent one over time.

The math is simple. The real challenge is staying the course long enough to let it play out.

Most aspiring traders never make it to 100 trades because they are rattled by variance, size up too quickly, or abandon their process after a drawdown and eventually blow up, been there and done it many times in 2018-2019.

I would get to around 30-40 trades before taking a huge loss (-50% drawdown or completely blowing out) - hence of my "trading goals" was just to make it through to 100 trades, amongst many goals at that time.

The true edge isn’t just in the numbers, it’s in the discipline to stick to the process and the patience to refine it (the real work away from staring at the screen all day). That’s what separates compounding from blowing up.

Its a tough game to crack, let the numbers show you the way. Dont think about the end goal but the process that will help you get there.

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

Buy 500 days before halving

Sell 500 days after halving

Thank me later

[Selina @selinaai_]

🚨 BREAKING: Claude can now map out your retirement better than most people charging $2,000 ever will.

Here are 6 prompts to figure out exactly when and how you can retire.

(Save this before it disappears).

[Mushfiq Sajib @heysajib]

🚨BREAKING: PEOPLE CAN TELL YOU'RE USING CHATGPT & CLAUDE.

The structure, the tone, the polish. It all gives it away.

5 prompts that fix it: 👇

[𝗰𝘆𝗰𝗹𝗼𝗽 @nobrainflip]

2021: the two targets everyone predicted were $100k $BTC and $10k $ETH.

$BTC got its $100k in Dec 2024.
$ETH never got its $10k.

And since 2021 top, $ETH has done nothing but bleed vs $BTC: ratio went 0.086 -> 0.027, lowest in ~10 months.

Conviction has fully flipped. Now it's "$BTC wins, $ETH is finished."

I'm fading that. Here's why the loudest call is wrong again:

Start with what almost nobody frames right: $BTC and $ETH are the same TYPE of asset.

Supply already distributed. No insider unlocks waiting to dump. 10+ years proving neither gets inflated away or rugged.

Almost nothing built after them can say that. These two can. They're the only 2 blue chips.

So this isn't $BTC vs some shitcoin. It's the two clean assets, and the question is which one carries less risk from here.

And rn, $BTC is the one carrying all the open problems.

1/ Saylor.

$BTC has Strategy. $ETH has Bitmine. Same trade, mirror image.

Strategy: 845,000 $BTC, cost basis ~$75.5k. $BTC ~$66k now, so they're ~13% underwater, ~$8B in the red.

Funded by ATM equity + preferred stock that pays dividends in cash ($692M paid out already). And $BTC throws off $0 to cover any of it.

So Strategy services those dividends by selling stock, or eventually $BTC. Market now prices it as a forced seller over every rally.

Bitmine (Tom Lee): 5.5M $ETH, ~4.6% of all $ETH, the largest ETH treasury. Also underwater, same bear.

But it stakes ~4.7M of that $ETH. That spins off ~$270M/yr in real yield.

The asset pays Bitmine to sit there. Strategy pays out of pocket to sit there.

Same drawdown, opposite cash flow. One treasury bleeds to hold, the other gets paid to hold.

That's the whole $ETH vs $BTC case in one frame.

2/ Productive vs dead asset.

Zoom out from the treasuries to the assets themselves.

~33% of all $ETH is staked and earns yield. Stakers get paid, supply gets locked. $ETH is a productive asset.

$BTC just sits. Its issuance goes to miners, who sell to cover power bills.

Furthermore this is $BTC's quiet long-term problem: security budget.

Fees are a rounding error of miner revenue. The block subsidy does ~all the work, and that subsidy halves every 4 years toward 0.

Nobody has solved how $BTC pays for its own security once the subsidy is gone. $ETH doesn't have that cliff: stakers are paid to secure it.

3/ Quantum.

Citi (May 2026) said it plainly: $BTC is more exposed to quantum than $ETH.

~6-6.9M $BTC sit in addresses whose public keys are already visible on-chain. No agreed migration path, slow governance.

$ETH ships upgrades every ~6 months and account abstraction gives wallets a real route to quantum-resistant sigs.

It's not that $ETH is immune. It's that $ETH can move and $BTC can't.

4/ Roadmap velocity.

Glamsterdam lands Q3 this year. Gas limit 60M -> 200M, ~78% cheaper fees, parallel execution opening the road toward 10,000 TPS.

$BTC's inertia is a feature to maxis. It's also why it's carrying every open problem above alone, with no mechanism to fix any of them fast.

So line it up:

- Treasury cash flow: $ETH earns yield, $BTC bleeds to hold
- Forced-seller overhang: $BTC has it, $ETH doesn't
- Security budget cliff: $BTC's problem, not $ETH's
- Quantum migration path: $ETH has one, $BTC doesn't
- Ship speed: $ETH every 6mo, $BTC ~never

Last cycle the loudest call was $10k $ETH. It never came. Consensus ate the L.

This cycle the loudest call is "$BTC wins, $ETH is dead" - screamed at the exact ratio where $ETH stopped going down.

Consensus will eat the L again.

[NoName @WhaleNoName]

🚨 S&P 500 ALWAYS RETURNS TO THE EMA 200 🚨

Every correction since 2020 has ended at this exact line

- 2020: a -35% crash to get there
- 2022 and 2025: smaller drops, same outcome

Right now SPX is stretched 20% ABOVE it

The setup is identical to all three prior corrections

Ask yourself when SPX last bottomed without touching EMA 200

You can't. Because it hasn't

My first target hasn't change: $6,200

FOLLOW + NOTIFS ON!

[NoName @WhaleNoName]

🚨 STOP AND LOOK AT THE CHART 🚨

This is the Coinbase stock chart overlaid on SpaceX

We can clearly see how company stocks behave after hitting the market:

Hype around SPCX and start of trading
⭣
Active retail investment
⭣
Dump and accumulation phase
⭣
Recovery and new ATH

WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN?

There are 2 factors here

- selling by shareholders who were waiting for the company to go public
- inflated valuation (at the current price of $2.1T)

1) The first factor should be absolutely clear to you

- welders
- cleaners
- engineers

All of them worked at SpaceX and received company shares as bonuses

And what do you think?

Now these bonuses are worth MILLIONS of dollars and are actively being dumped on the market

To be precise 4400 employees became millionaires

From what is known:

- a ship worker who pulled rocket pieces out of the ocean - millionaire
- a former engineer - received a stock package worth $28M
- around 400 people with stock packages worth $100M each

All of this is pressure on the price

2) The most important factor - a company with a valuation of $1.75T has revenue of $20B

What is this if not a bubble?

The main revenue is built on Starlink but what if a competitor launches something similar?

And there will definitely be competitors after such a successful IPO from Elon Musk

Additionally the AI bubble influenced this valuation

So I see a picture where we perfectly repeat the COIN pattern

Successful launch -> Some black swan (AI bubble deflating/competitors emerging) -> Strong correction -> Recovery

It's exactly at this weak phase that I'm planning to buy SPCX

This will be a perfect entry with potential for solid profit

If you've been following me closely you knew when and why S&P 500 would start correcting

Many of my followers also took profit from the GOLD pump

The next stock market updates will be the most important ones

The reason is simple - we're entering a correction phase

Turn on notifications and you'll realize how much valuable info you've been missing by not doing it sooner