New refinery in Pakistan?
Not without addressing core issues!
No domestic crude, idle capacity mid stream oil value chain, EV transition looming, and history of upcoming saudi refinery. Let's prioritize existing refinery upgrades & energy diversification, not pipe dreams.
Amid energy security concerns, pivoting to furnace oil is regression, not progress. Don’t incentivize outdated fuel choices. Comparing FO to coal or RLNG is inherently flawed. Refineries: fix your product mix & pricing, don't expect govt to secure your margins.
Pakistan’s Furnace Oil Levy Crisis
1. FO prices have risen by nearly 80%
The combined PL and CSL have added about Rs84,742 per metric tonne, pushing furnace oil prices from roughly Rs110,000–150,000/tonne to around Rs195,000–235,000/tonne.
2. The levy includes a massive tax burden
The tax consists of Rs77/litre PL plus Rs2.5/litre CSL, equal to Rs82,077/MT + Rs2,665/MT.
3. Refineries are producing far more FO than the local market can absorb
Domestic FO consumption is around 0.9 million tonnes annually, compared to production of nearly 2.5 million tonnes.
4. Pakistan has already exported over 1 million tonnes of FO in FY26
In the first 7 months of FY26, more than 1 million metric tonnes of furnace oil were exported due to collapsing local demand.
5. Cnergyico is exporting up to 95% of its furnace oil output
This shows how severely domestic market economics have deteriorated for refiners.
6. The policy is threatening refinery throughput and fuel supply
If refineries cut runs due to FO surplus, production of petrol and diesel also declines, increasing import dependence.
7. Refinery upgrades worth $5–6 billion are at risk
These delayed upgrades could otherwise deliver over $1 billion per year in import substitution by reducing FO yields and increasing cleaner fuel output.
8. Major industries are under direct pressure
Sectors such as cement, textiles, glass, shipping, tyres, and foundries face sharply higher fuel costs with limited short-term alternatives.
9. FO-based power generation has become significantly more expensive
Plants that rely on furnace oil are now much less competitive, adding strain to the power system and worsening circular debt pressures.
10. Energy security is being weakened during a regional crisis
With fears that Pakistan’s oil import bill could rise toward $600 million per month, forcing a domestic fuel into export markets is strategically unsound.
11. Export logistics are adding further losses
Pakistan’s port infrastructure is built mainly for imports, not large-scale FO exports, causing delays, demurrage, bottlenecks, and weaker net realizations.
12. The policy is inconsistent and discriminatory
FO is heavily taxed, while coal faces no equivalent levy structure and continues to benefit from incentives in key areas.
13. This is a narrow fiscal measure with wide economic damage
It hurts refineries, industry, power costs, trade balance, and energy resilience while offering uncertain long-term revenue gains.
14. The levies should be suspended or reconsidered immediately
A more practical approach is needed until refinery modernization, viable fuel alternatives, and a consistent carbon-pricing framework are in place.
@usamaaaaaaaaaaa@najam_ali Assumptions are well ..... Humans assuming with bias and context....
One makes (a)scenarios and (b)stress test them, then (c)propose/issue guardrails to mitigate risks...
Doesnt seem right @najam_ali ....
Recently Masroor khan sb explained as well. Its the other way around for crude + refined product.
Not changing the goalpost of the outcome you mentioned but numbers not right
@motasim Otherwise each of us will keep on defending and getting offended on our definition of who should be subsidised and who should pay full or at premium.
@motasim Govt should define energy poverty and get done with this debate of rich and poor consumers - solar or otherwise.
Govt should stop hiding behind people lowering their consumption with solar.... Lowering consumption is incentivized by tariff
Iranian President Pezeshkian:
If you save 10% on your electricity, gas, and water usage, we can save 900,000 barrels of oil and gas every day.
This is our country’s wealth, and we’re wasting it. We consume electricity unnecessarily and use too much heat.
Right now, I’m sweating and want to take off my jacket, but according to protocol, I can’t. It didn’t have to be this warm in here. Lowering the temperature by just two degrees would save enormous energy.
But we don’t care—we consume and then criticize others. Who’s consuming correctly? Who’s really consuming these resources? It’s you and me. No need to point fingers at anyone else.
Unfortunately the brunt of the swat incident has been put on two ACs and an ADC, who prob lack political capital of their superiors. Ridiculous!! If they were so incompetent the buck should stop with a more senior officer & not a grade 17 or 18 officer.
Congratulations to Zohran Mamdani and his thousands of grassroots supporters for their extraordinary campaign. You took on the political, economic and media Establishment- and you beat them. Now it’s on to victory in the general election.
Now everyone wants peace.
We’re good with that. But next time, remember: size isn’t strategy—and not every small kid backs down.
Yours rebelliously,
Pakistan
Roll No. 786 – Still Standing
2-
launched Operation Sindoor with Rafale pens and a cheering crowd.
We responded with our humble Operation Bunyan al-Marsus—no imported drama, just good old Chinese ink and solid aim.
Things escalated, furniture flew, and suddenly India bhai called his dad.
To see how empty and manipulated the term "terrorist" is, look at Abu al-Jolani -- oh, sorry: Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa.
In January, DOJ still offered $10m for his capture, linking him to AQ and ISIS. In May, he's welcomed as a respected world leader:
Weapons, tested. Both sides will claim victory & celebrate.
But those who lost their loved ones, soldiers & civilians, will be left to mourn them for life💔
And, govts will raise more taxes to replenish stocks & buy new war toys for next time & weapon suppliers will get richer
Dear Pakistanis,
Please refrain from using Hinduph0bic words like 'Gaye-Maata' or 'Gaaye Mutra' etc. We have Hindus in Pakistan too AND they are as much Pakistani as ones in the 'majority'. Please stop alienating our precious Pakistani Hindu community. Please shun xenophobia.