It is humbling to consider that if we harness just 1 millionth of the Sun’s power for AI, that will be much more than a million times the intelligence of all of humanity
Good take
My guess is
- demand for intelligence is near infinite
- but 80% of workloads will be running on 99% cheaper models within 12-18 months
- 20% of workloads will still run on latest gen models where IQ maxing is important (scientific breakthroughs, higher level ochestrator agents?)
- rough analogy might be what % of macbooks or gaming PCs sold have the maxed out specs for CPU/GPU, prices are falling much faster than Moore's law here though
- this leads me to think the limiting factor will be energy and compute, not better models
At Coinbase we're working hard on routing prompts to cheaper models where appropriate, and in some cases have been able to keep costs roughly flat, while token usage continues to grow exponentially.
Creators should LOVE Ai. AI doesn’t make uncreative people creative. It allows creators to become exponentially more creative.
Creative iteration that used to take hours , days or weeks, can happen in minutes.
The different routes you wanted to take but didn’t have the money or skill to do. Now you can do.
The number of gatekeepers drops every day and will eventually hit zero.
If you know how to tell a great story, you will LOVE AI.
99 % of content fails. With AI the cost and time it takes to experience and learn from those failures drop like a rock.
The people who should HATE AI are those that try to control distribution and the creative process because they are the ones that control platforms and tools.
It’s all going to change. Only this time it won’t take decades like it did with streaming.