Kane

managing risk markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

[Swede @Swedgonecrypto]

It’s actually crazy how X makes you believe the entire world is falling apart every single day.

Another war, another crisis, another headline about how we’re all fucked.

Then you go outside and realize everyone is just living their normal lives, going to work, eating at restaurants and enjoying themselves.

Sometimes you just need to close X, stop consuming all this fear and go enjoy your life. The algorithm makes you believe that everything is negative and bad.

[Adam @abetrade]

Most people get into trading by stumbling upon someone on youtube or x shilling a strategy that usually evolves around technical analysis

/cont

[ant @ThisIsNuse]

Maybe it's experience maybe it's bias

But I for one will never glorify trading

This is the best and worst venture I've ever put myself through

Supercars, handbags, and jets are all a mask to the raw truth that this game is rough

[Tulip King 🌷 @tulipking]

You should be buying coins where the marginal buyer is the protocol themselves rather than hoping somebody else comes along. If a team isn't buying their own token, you shouldn't be either

[0xngmi @0xngmi]

you can track it on https://t.co/JeDk2WYaoB

[Agent Chud @AgentChud]

Unfortunate it's come to this... but i'm not investing in shit anymore unless the founder is FULL BLOWN doxxed.

Ai makes it too easy to make a working / banger project...
Scumbags just rug anyway bc it's easier to rug and repeat than to stick around and grow.

[Chainalysis @chainalysis]

Our investigators are observing never-seen-before laundering patterns with the stolen funds from the Binance exploit. Thousands of transactions in a short period suggest that the attackers are using automation to obscure the trail of funds. Rather than simply moving funds onward, they repeatedly circulate them among addresses, often sending funds back to addresses involved earlier in the sequence.

Read more: https://t.co/PJ71R2dxnS

[DeFiyst @DeFiyst]

Reminder: Binance is forced to buy back these spot tokens to honour reserves and user deposits.

(they are effectively net short $500m ETH, $35m PEPE, $45m UNI, $40m ENA, $70m LINK, $10m AAVE, etc)

[Stan Druckenmiller @standuquesne]

I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States. As a market participant, I am looking forward to to using their innovative product to enhance my investment process.

[The Giver @lazyvillager1]

it’s not THE worst but what has done the most damage by far on CT is the commonly espoused saying to “size up big on ideas that are high conviction.” someone says this pretty much every other podcast episode that comes out

it sounds great, and intuitively correct at first glance. so no one really digs into it, which may already suggest how complacent this advice truly is

the issue: most ppl have no idea on the procedure to build conviction & what degrees of separation exist, bc of a) the lack of reps and b) not knowing what a good rep looks like

conviction for many = a flimsy idea that cannot stand against 5mins+ of interrogation and is an extension of whimsical confidence

in simpler terms, “conviction” is just repackaged emotion, but euphemistically presented so that the trader feels like he is investing as opposed to gambling. and as volatile as emotion is, intensity is even more charged b/c of how much said trader has sized up on it (going thru oscillations of net worth). this of course ends up creating irrationality and emotional anchors to wealth… thereby also preventing a sober re underwrite of the situation, whether price is moving for- or against-. this is again of course dangerous on big sized trades

experienced traders can size up because they have a strong pulse of what 1/10 is, what went wrong, the iterations/professions of what that looked like, etc. the amount of risk ppl size up on suggests that great ideas come up much more frequently than they truly do - a 10/10 idea happens probably once every ~4-5 years. survivorship bias means you hear only about the shots on goal that worked

[🐧 @Pentosh1]

will keep saying this over and over and over

There are 4 outcomes

Big win
Small Win
Small Loss
Big Loss

Your job is just to eliminate #4. You will have good trades, and bad trades. but as long as you eliminate the big losses, the other 3 outcomes will lead to consistent growth over time. Our decisions compound with time.

We will have both ups and downs. That's unavoidable bc we all make mistakes. But the goal is just to have higher lows and higher highs consistently. You might have a 20% win here, and a 5% loss there. Then you move onto the next one. It always comes down to probabilities and just putting ourselves in a position to win.

[SalsaTekila @SalsaTekila]

Hyperliquid: best liquidity of any orderbook DEX.

Lighter: first truly innovative success, a “zero-fee” model with costs shifted elsewhere, plus the Robinhood association.

Variational: the MM executes for users, first successful B-book style exchange.

Papertrade: synthetic degeneracy haven, zero-cost and zero-impact execution.

All four are first-mover innovations that turned a new vision into adoption. I am not interested in “farming” something without novelty. There are 20 different perp DEXes claiming to be better, more liquid, faster, bigger, backed by XYZ. Unless I see something novel, I’m not interested.

Recent thoughts on the topic, hope this helps some of you.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

At $28M into a risk free treasury at that time would net you $1.4M or so every year.

Yolo that money every year all you want.

Everything is in hindsight.

I take no enjoyment in seeing this PnL chart.

But what we can do is use this as a learning lesson for the masses. About leverage, risk, risk management, perhaps greed, etc…

Appreciate @strictrope transparency. This may save a trader or two or thousands accounts in the future…

[Kwaker Oats @kwaker_oats_]

dont over think it

- pick good coins
- buy good coins when they're 30%+ down on pullbacks
- have enough ammo to buy until theyre 50%+ down
- no to low leverage

[Tensai Capital @TensaiCapital]

This is burnout, and if you want to survive as a trader, you must learn to recognize it.

True burnout is not just being overworked, nor is it something you can push through. It is a feedback loop that occurs when your body experiences intense, prolonged stress.

Stress is part of life, and under normal conditions you can recover from it easily. In fact, many dimensions of human performance - strength, endurance, mental acuity - actually require stress in order to grow.

However, growth in response to stress can only happen when the stress is manageable and offset by periods of recovery. When the stress is extreme and constant, the body fails to adapt and enters a downward spiral.

As stress accumulates, several things happen physiologically:
- sleep is disrupted
- hormones become dysregulated
- mental performance degrades
- heart rate variability falls
- inflammation rises and immune function declines

The problem is that each of these effects also *reduces your ability to withstand and recover from stress.* So you enter a vicious cycle where recovery becomes impossible and performance steadily deteriorates.

The experience @agapestride describes here is exactly what it feels like to burn out from trading. And if you find yourself in this situation, the most important thing you can do is *recognize what has happened.*

You are not dumber than you used to be. You are not more indecisive. You are not more impulsive, fearful, or greedy. You are simply physiologically impaired by severe, chronic stress.

When you notice the signs of burnout, you must prioritize recovery above all else:
- cut your risk
- stop looking at charts
- get off social media
- play sports or start running
- spend time with friends and family
- go hiking or traveling
- take lots of hot baths

As much as it feels like the best time to make generational wealth is RIGHT NOW, the market will always be here. So take a break and don't come back until you know your body can handle it.

[Kane @kanexbt]

@Fink_Money You still train once a week ?

[Kane @kanexbt]

@XtineFang Zero

[Cobie @cobie]

People that mourn mistakes simply don’t believe in themselves. Everyone that wants to make it in 1 month is really saying “I need to get very lucky because I do not believe I am equipped to make it in a sustainable way over the next 5-10 years”. Those people would be much better off studying, trying again, failing, learning, etc until they do believe in themselves. And then it doesn’t matter.

[Justin Drake @drakefjustin]

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.