MKA

Neo-marxist structuralist. Combat boot wearing Feminist. Intellectual gadfly. Data lover. I like kittens too.

[David Mulholland @nipoligraph]

Belatedly, the August LucidTalk poll showed continued swings SF-to-SDLP and TUV-to-DUP. Note that compared to the raw poll data, the headline numbers for DUP and UUP reported for the poll seem to have been misquoted by 1% each.

[Larry the Cat @Number10cat]

Wishing a wonderful and empowering #PrideMonth to my fabulous friends celebrating around the world. Love is love. 😻

[David Mulholland @nipoligraph]

Those Alliance gains are predicted to most likely come in Causeway Coast & Glens (+4), Newry, Mourne & Down (+3), Lisburn & Castlereagh (+3), and Antrim & Newtownabbey (+2). Sinn Fein gains are predicted in Fermanagh & Omagh (+3), Derry & Strabane (+2), and Belfast City (+2).

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@StephenFarryMP I resisted a whoop when he talked about the growth after alliance.

[Larry the Cat @Number10cat]

78 years ago Auschwitz was liberated. More than one million children, women and men were murdered there as part of the Holocaust. A dark lesson of history; humanity owes it to each of the victims to ensure it will never happen again. #HolocaustMemorialDay

[The Chaser @chaser]

Let the countdown begin

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

I have no memory of him. But then I was drinking half pints of wine in the green room.

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@nwbrux I thoroughly recommend this book. Thought provoking and challenging.

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@PatriciaOLynn @allianceparty Pp pp

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@nipoligraph More uncertainty? There goes my plan to retire on the winnings based on political betting.

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@nipoligraph Vote management, transfer friendly. Smart election.

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@nipoligraph I am pleased to see better vote management of APNI in East Antrim this time.

[David Mulholland @nipoligraph]

From what we've heard so far it seems that SF are performing well at the expense of SDLP - if so they'll be likely to hold their at-risk seats in WB, FST, and even NB - and that will make them very likely to be largest party

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@nipoligraph You know I think it is too low but my reasoning is based on emotion and not numbers.

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@nipoligraph Always happy when you may be agreeing with me.

[MKA @KateinWhitehead]

@nipoligraph @livuniHSS I still think the TUV are going to struggle to deliver more than 1 seat

[David Mulholland @nipoligraph]

The @livuniHSS poll includes reported transfer intentions, which look to agree very well with the NIPG estimates:
- TUV to transfer strongly to DUP
- Strong transfers between Alli and SDLP
- Bigger UUP to Alli transfer may be the most notable change from previous elections

[Stephen Farry @StephenFarryUU]

This is an offensive and flawed comparison on many levels. Not least Ukraine wants to join the EU.

[David Mulholland @nipoligraph]

I'm excited to launch the NIPG election forecast! https://t.co/tBENTFqout
This is my attempt to '538' the 2022 Assembly election, including simulating the STV counts, to bridge the gap between first preference poll numbers and actual seat outcomes.

[David Mulholland @nipoligraph]

The site also has more detailed forecast pages for each constituency, including fairly up-to-date candidate lists https://t.co/KLVTXqwB0h
Take the candidate-level predictions (rather than party totals) with a pinch of salt, though - some of them may look a bit off