One of the biggest concerns has always been winter and Russia’s attempts to freeze Ukrainian civilians into submission.
But this year, if I were sitting in the Kremlin, I’d be far more concerned about what Ukraine might do to Russia over the winter.
Failing to decisively defeat Russian imperialism in Ukraine means Europe will eventually have to fight Russia within its own borders, a scenario that could unfold much sooner than anyone expects.
Ukraine's magnificent courage has kept the threat at bay, but it has also caused European societies to forget just how dangerous and adaptable Russia remains.
While Russia has burned through a massive amount of its initial military potential, it has actually become a much more dangerous neighbor than it was before the full-scale war. Russia has less to lose than in January 2022.
The regime is more isolated, has mostly decoupled from Western economies, and possesses vast institutional knowledge of modern, drone-centered warfare that far outpaces European capabilities.
Because Russia operates under a ruthless war economy, its factories are delivering drones, missiles, and air defense interceptors at a pace that dwarfs the collective output of the entire EU.
Europeans are living in a state of false security, drastically overestimating their own military readiness while holding completely inadequate stockpiles of interceptors and unmanned platforms.
While the EU must immediately rebuild its domestic defenses to act as a deterrent, the absolute best way to avoid a direct war inside the EU is to break the back of Russian imperialism in Ukraine.
This is a highly realistic goal, but it demands that Europe dramatically accelerate its military aid, starting with immediate and massive funding for Ukrainian drone programs
Russia asks Kazakhstan, Georgia and Azerbaijan to close their borders with Russia.
Mobilization coming.
Скоро наступит чёрный август.
По информации от источника, Кремль провёл закрытые консультации с руководством нескольких соседних стран (в первую очередь Казахстан, в меньшей степени Грузия, возможно Азербайджан и другие) о временном закрытии въезда/выезда из РФ осенью 2026года.
Россия сама границы перекрывать не будет — официально всё останется открыто. Закрытие организуют именно соседние страны на своей стороне: «технические проблемы», «усиление контроля», «учения» или «санитарные меры». Таким образом, выехать из России станет крайне сложно или практически невозможно в нужный период.
Цель — обеспечение проведения какого-то крупного «события» внутри страны в условиях максимальной изоляции от внешнего мира и минимизации оттока населения/специалистов.
Пока это именно неподтверждённая информация, но несколько независимых друг от друга контактов в приграничных регионах начали намекать на «неприятные сюрпризы» в логистике уже с сентября-октября.
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Запись #711, 01 июля 2026.
Дневник разведчик
1/3
"Ukrainan sota ei ole toistaiseksi edennyt totaaliseen sodankäyntiin. Askel siihen tarkoittaisi Kangaspuron mukaan sitä, että Venäjä ottaisi pääkohteeksi Ukrainan siviilikohteet."
Anteeksi?
https://t.co/GHqOSMbAfV
Kherson today after a russian attack on a local minibus, which left at least 2 dead and 9 injured‼️
Among the victims is an 18-year-old girl who was traveling with her mother to apply for university. The mother’s testimony can be heard in the video.
This was 18-year-old Svitlana.
Today, russia murdered her in an FPV drone strike on a passenger minibus in Kherson.
💔 She was only 18.
We don’t hate russia enough.
Another terrorist attack by Russian imperialists. This time even on a kindergarten. More dead and more wounded. Putin and others responsible for this must be tried and punished just like the fascists after World War II in Nuremberg in 1946
Eastern European right-wing parties should study Japan. Japan's conservatives get it: be muscular against authoritarian threats (Russia and China), take a clear geopolitical stand (pro-Ukraine), and enforce cultural integration without apology—integrate or choose a country that aligns with your values (no halal food or burkas). That's coherent conservatism.
It protects national interests without collapsing into "we hate anyone different." Nawrocki's party, EKRE and Isamaa in Estonia, by contrast, are built on grievance and negation.
Healthy right-wing politics articulates what you're for—security, cultural continuity, sovereignty—not just who you're against.
Krisenmanagement im 🇷🇺 Staatsfernsehen: Valentina Matwijenko gibt zu, dass Ruzzland massive Probleme bei der Treibstoffversorgung für die Landwirtschaft hat. Eine Arbeitsgruppe soll es nun im „täglichen Modus“ richten.
Wenn schon die Traktoren auf den Feldern stillstehen, trifft das die gesamte Versorgung. Täglich nach Lösungen suchen? Das zeigt doch vor allem, wie hilflos man mittlerweile ist.
Die Risse im Fundament werden immer sichtbarer.
#Russland
#PropagandavsRealität #Agrarkrise
Japanese officials showed up wearing traditional Ukrainian vyshyvankas to greet the Ukrainian delegation during their visit to Tokyo. A nice touch of solidarity.
🇯🇵🤝🇺🇦
🇷🇺 Selbst Top-Propagandist Alexander Koz gibt zu: Es gibt kein sicheres Hinterland mehr in Ruzzland. Drohnen reichen bis Kamtschatka und ohne Importe droht die totale Isolation – bis hin zum Klopapier-Mangel.
„Die Spezialoperation läuft nach Plan“ sieht irgendwie anders aus… 🤡
#Russland #Koz #Propaganda
The distance to Ukraine is approximately 3,000 kilometers.
It would certainly have terrible consequences if Ukrainian long-range strikes were to rage there.
The Russians are attacking almost nothing but civilians now.
Russians attack a bus with a drone in the center of Kherson; initial reports indicate two dead.
At least five other people were injured.
Russia is worse than cancer.
At 7 a.m., as people were heading to work, Russians deliberately attacked a public bus with a drone in Kherson's Central District.
Two people were killed.
Nine others were injured, including a nurse from one of the city’s healthcare facilities.
Human safari...
They deliberately burn fields and forest belts so that our military have no place to hide, so that only the scorched earth remains after them.
This is not a war with the harvest. This is a targeted terror against Ukrainian farmers, our people and our land.” - Victor Hordiienko
Our MFA spokesperson @SpoxUkraineMFA shared a video about our diplomats’ visit to Japan.
They arrived for the morning meetings and were welcomed by this wonderful JICA delegation.
Thank you, people of Japan, for your heartfelt support.
心から感謝しています。♥️🇯🇵🇺🇦