@DefiWimar Thanks for this; I couldnโt remember what IPO happened around the 2000 top; the parallels are clear, and I doubt this time will be any different
Quick one. Everyone is celebrating the deal like the oil is already flowing again. It's not.
I spoke to someone senior today, the sort of person who would genuinely know, and the message was simple. Nobody has started anything. Everyone is waiting. They want to see the deal hold, they want the mines cleared, they want insurance to reprice, and until all of that happens the ships are not moving the way the headlines make it sound.
That lines up exactly with what came out today. Clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines could take weeks, according to the people who do the clearing. France and Britain are still arguing over who runs the naval mission and whether Iran even lets them in. So we are not near normal, we are at the very front of a process that has barely begun.
This is the whole reason we are spending the next while gathering real numbers on the ground rather than trading the press release. The gap between what the wire says and what is actually happening on the water is where the opportunity is.
The market priced the party. The water has not moved yet.