Supercycle (canceled) man

Beat the market since 2015

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

Americans want US supremacy over the world to pay for their way of life — which ultimately results in boots on the ground.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

americans do not want—and did not vote for—boots on the ground in a war with iran.

[Santiago Capital @SantiagoAuFund]

@jimiuorio Socialism always fails bc it is the institutionalized implementation of a losers mindset

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

Out of jealousy and envy.

[bug girl @buggirl]

in nature if a monkey hoarded 1 trillion bananas the other monkeys would beat that monkey to death and take his bananas

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

Seeing some tweets about how Iran has imposed a new deterrence equation on Israel and the region. That seems like a whole lot of motivated reasoning.

First, let's be clear about how much of a reversal this represents for Iran's strategic doctrine: instead of its Arab proxies protecting Iran from attack, Iran is now trying to bail them out—and inviting attacks on its own territory as a result.

Second, in four past rounds of fighting (going back to April 2024), Iran was unable to deter Israel because its missile barrages failed to cause strategic damage. It could not impose costs significant enough to change Israeli behavior.

Indeed, as @NicoleGrajewski and others have written, those attacks arguably invited further conflict rather than deterred it. The salvos overnight do not seem any different. Iran's act of "deterrence" wound up causing more damage to Iran than to the country it sought to deter.

The tools that have been more successful over the past few months—at compellence, rather than deterrence—have been the ones aimed at Gulf states and global energy markets. But to use those tools now (or in the future) risks collapsing the entire ceasefire.

The "equation" here relies on Donald Trump to restrain Israel. It doesn't seem viable at all in the long term, unless Iran is prepared to risk endless escalatory cycles that would ultimately be very damaging for Iran itself.

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

100 days of US-Iran war

But oil is below $100

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

Basically it’s called trading. Clearly not the first design of Strategy.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Strive CEO @ColeMacro explains why Michael Saylor sold 32 bitcoin.

"he had to message 'I am willing to do this' and that willingness to do that was always going to come with the critics saying 'oh this is a tip of the iceberg. First its 32, next its going to be 3,200.'"

"your goal should be maximizing total returns. bitcoin's your hurdle rate, but ultimately the goal is you want to maximize the total returns for your common equity shareholders."

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

What about CIA’s human rights, ma’am?

[Bloomberg @business]

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum launched her strongest criticism to date against what she says are blunt US attempts to interfere in Mexican domestic politics. https://t.co/tM1YvidVC2

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

😂

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Iran declares it will not charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, will instead charge “environmental protection fees”

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

Summertime

[Parisian Aesthetics @Parisianaes1]

What does Roland-Garros bring to mind? 🎾

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

😂

[RAW EGG NATIONALIST @Babygravy9]

The apex predator returns to its hunting ground.

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

@RealDeanCain I’ve watched the TV show in French for years when I was a teenager. It was so great to seat on the sofa with my brother every day! 🫶🏻

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

This guy is a winner.

[Autism Capital 🧩 @AutismCapital]

You thought YOUR social anxiety was bad? 😂 💀

[IDIOTS DU VILLAGE @_IDVL]

Rien ne s'est passé comme il voulait 🤣

[Mike Pompeo @mikepompeo]

I've met with some of the worst guys on Earth - but Xi Jinping is without a doubt the coldest and most ruthless leader I've encountered.

We should be under no illusions about his malign intentions toward the US or any power that challenges him on the world stage.

[Crazy Ass Moments in Italian Politics @CrazyItalianPol]

Silvio Berlusconi’s ‘Rule of 30’:

‘Before appointing a minister, you should ask them a simple question that’s more useful than any CV. How many women have you been with? Because if they say fewer than thirty, they can’t be a minister. They’re not vaccinated against life.’

[Eslouw @rip_eslouw]

Feliz día ma

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

Swap diplomacy is coming at a large scale. Bullish US hegemony.

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

PM Modi asked Indians to avoid buying gold for at least a year to preserve foreign-exchange reserves. - Bloomberg

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

Still room to grow.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Overseas investors are piling into US stocks:

Foreign investors now allocate a record 63% of their US financial assets to equities.

This percentage has more than DOUBLED since the 2008 Financial Crisis.

This also surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by ~10 percentage points.

By comparison, the long-term average allocation is ~40%.

As a result, foreign investors now own a record $21.3 trillion in US stocks and equity funds, surging +170% since 2020.

Foreign investors are doubling down on US markets.

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

The more I read stuff like this the more I think the market might have topped.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

There is a rising probability that we have a super cycle based on:

Increasing interest payments that need monetizing via the bank of system

The reliance on short term bill issuance reducing cyclically of debt rollover.

The largest capex boom in history based on the most important tech ever.

An potential explosion in bank credit to finance the capex

A global race between China and the US that can't be stopped.

The only thing that stops this is if services inflation disinflation (via productivity) doesn't offset goods inflation. It did in the 90's but that is the key variable now.

According to the Universal Code, almost all available capital will flow into increasing output of intelligence per unit of energy (and the lowering of electricity costs) at the transition phase when we enter the Economic Singularity ie when intelligence exponentially increases faster than current economic and political systems operate.

Not a certainty but a rising probability

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

You mean, “this time is different”?

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

Have you considered the possibility that it’s not a bubble and the world is indeed changing at a pace humanity has never seen before, anon.

[Supercycle (canceled) man @KingCryptos]

This is the kind of thing you say before it bursts, you know, when you make fun of a decades-long veteran of the financial markets.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

Warren Buffett still hoarding record amounts of cash despite $SPX hitting new ATH’s almost every week, every month, every year…