Michael

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@davidslosttt Does your model have target end-of-EV number for Jolly to withstand the ED onslaught?

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Shimmersoft Con ET basically disappeared from my For You page after the Clark numbers dropped last night. I was inundated out of nowhere four days ago, and just like that the switch got flipped back. Do I have to follow Latinx doctor dude?! Do I have to make an effort to find the cope?!

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@RalstonReports Exceptionally good news for Masters, this.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@earlyvotedata If R’s cannibalize IPEV with mail, could we not see R’s collapse relative to a steadier Democratic IPEV? Lot of high-fiving on Con ET about NV, but today seems to be a clear indication of changing voter behavior (a concept Con ET rolls its collective eyes at because of 2024).

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Michael31889407 @TonerousHyus @GabNek12 Source = “trust me bro”

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@DMerschbrock “Great for Masters” vibes.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Hyhhuu7yhi @Ageriscool @RightWI1776 In person early vote doesn’t start for another four days there, so no… you don’t have IPEV. And yes, it’s long past COVID. That’s exactly the point. Voter behavior has changed since 2022 and mail-in has decreased in popularity in every subsequent election.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Hyhhuu7yhi @Ageriscool @RightWI1776 Is it retarded to think voter behavior has changed post-COVID and that R’s and D’s have flipped on their preference for mail-in vs. IPEV/ED? Was that trend not emerging in 2024 despite lack of D enthusiasm and Trump winning independents?

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@pretzellogic101 @onpointpolitics I don’t think there’s many if any forecasts out there where Acton isn’t outrunning Brown by 1-2 points, but I could be wrong. So this would end up as Acton +5 or something similar.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Hyhhuu7yhi @Ageriscool @RightWI1776 I genuinely don’t understand how Democrat behavior is so mailable in these narratives yet Republican behavior is unquestionably solid. All R’s in these places HAVE to be showing up, because that’s what they DO.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@onpointpolitics Problem with a lot of younger right-leaning people who got into politics and analysis in the era of Trump is that they don’t really believe that persuasion exists in a red-to-blue direction. They’ll talk around it or ignore it for the next three weeks, guaranteed.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@TheRand2025 This same dude said in October 2025, based on early voting, that VA Gov was going to be like +4 Dem and NJ Gov was going to be even/possible R win. Said all the same shit about rural turnout being huge, blah blah on and on.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Five_Starrr @Bradillac @petebray I think there’s going to be a disagreement between a number of people that this is supposed to be a blue wave of Democrat enthusiasm vs. a blue wave of indie/GOP disillusionment. It’s also not insane to think voter behavior (VBM vs. IPEV/ED) has changed 6 years post-COVID.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Five_Starrr @Bradillac @petebray Polls have AES up 1-3%. That requires typical Dem turnout, some blue shift in red areas and indies breaking for D’s. The concept of a wave has to do with what happens country-wide, not what % of Dem party turns out in one state. MI was going to be a close race within a wave year.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Five_Starrr @Bradillac @petebray A blue wave happens as a result of Democrat enthusiasm, red areas trending blue, or both. There’s an insinuation here that ballots returned from “Trump” counties = red votes, which is complete speculation given 1) there’s no party ID and 2) You have no idea what the blue shift is

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@electionsjoe Dude, my For You feed is now almost entirely full of con ET posters I’ve never seen before in my life, posting what feels like endless EV cope. Someone at Twitter HQ flipped the algorithm switch.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@FranziaMom Dude has a harsh noise project and writes columns. Some dudes can type 3,000 words on the fine distinctions between Merzbow albums but Set It Off and Break Down the Walls sound like the same thing to them. RISD kid opinions have enormous crossover with Boomer dad musical takes.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@hjessy_ I mean he does vaguely resemble Dr Evil so I can definitely see him rattling off that figure with his pinky next to his mouth.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@simpymcgee93 @gldivittorio New England voters support moderate GOP governors but balk at sending similar types to DC. Not a 1:1 comparison but Charlie Baker had 75% approval in Mass. He’d have a snowball’s chance in hell for senate. Even VT loves its GOP governor. We’re weird like that. Pappas’ll be fine.

[Michael @KinlinMich58613]

@Taniel Jeff has raised about a million in campaign funding since 2022. His opponent Lee raised a couple grand. Not a bad showing all things considered.