Shimmersoft

Visual novel developer. Games: Discord: @cactuscali19912's 'favorite white boy'.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

happy 20th anniversary to resident evil 4! we'll always cherish all the thrilling, often stupid, memories. what's that? you don't remember these scenes? well you must have forgotten. it has been 20 years. go play otome edition if you need a refresher.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

@antchr27 Possibly but personally I think they're hedging on stuff they want to believe is in reach and being honest about stuff that's lost. They have Brown running dead even with Husted and I don't think that's gonna happen. Same with Talarico.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Bro. ECHELON has Ossoff up 15?? Now we're cooking

[Political Polls @PpollingNumbers]

New - Senate poll - Georgia

🔵 Jon Ossoff 55％
🔴 Mike Collins 40％
🟡 Allen Buckley 3％

Echelon Insights (B-) - LV - 10/23

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

@kevindiescher @PollTracker2024 lmao you seem nervous about it. You should be.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

anyone wanna take bets on how long until this clinic closes bc it doesn't make any money

[Attorney General Ken Paxton @KenPaxtonTX]

BREAKING: The nation’s first-ever Detransition Clinic is now open as a result of my historic settlement with Texas Children’s Hospital.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

@GorillaHpn He specifically mrntions that the non-primary voters are being excluded and they're 30% of the votes. It's just Republicans trying to comfort each other into thinking they're ahead when we have no idea how many Rs have defected and Is have voted Dem.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Oh here we go

[David Wildstein @wildstein]

A new poll shows Democrats with a generic 23-point lead in New Jersey congressional races, while MAGA is plunging.

https://t.co/Ua0P3Qh4Xn

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Have there been any public pollsters describing 10-25 point swings? Most indications of that drama have come from leaked R internals or district-level polling. Nobody seems to want to state what the voting makes obvious, lest they seem "biased" toward Dems.

[umichvoter @umichvoter]

D+25 shifts in New Jersey IPEV
D+15-20 shifts in Nevada IPEV
D+10-15 shifts in Florida IPEV

yet LV screens show GOP movement?

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Your stories could afford more realism

[David Marcus @BlueBoxDave]

I’m a storyteller, not an odds maker, but right now, I think Republicans can feel good about TX, OH, and ME.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

scott pressler "inspecting the voter rolls" in the dead of winter after watching Rs get thrashed

[ThePersistence @ScottPresler]

Once the election is over, I’m going to spend the entire winter meticulously inspecting voter rolls across the country.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Graphs usefully demonstrate the "vote disparity" problem for Rs in TX. Even at its worst day, Travis banked 4k more votes than Montgomery *at its best*. The two following a roughly comparable trendline just means that Travis is banking substantially more votes.

[IΛMƧIᄂKY @IAmVerySilky]

Texas Update:

My two favorite graphs. Travis vs Montgomery. Pick your favorite trend.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

keep an eye out for whether the Texas legislature immediately votes to restore straight line voting after the midterms

[AKM @akm515]

Anecdotally, abandoning straight line voting is going to haunt the GOP in Texas this election cycle.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Um... that means the compact is totally legal if a Congressional majority consents to it, does it not

[Leroy the Elk @LeroyTheElk]

Not only do I expect SCOTUS to strike this down, I expect it to be unanimous. The Constitution is very clear that "No State shall, without the Consent of Congress... enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State."

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

@adanthar Whether ED refers to Election Day or Erectile Dysfunction, Republicans seem to make exclusive claim to it

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

you can't uncover the correct answer when you are unwilling to ask the correct question

[THE BIG JACK @TheBigJack68]

My question is:
Why is Texas, a perennial Red state stronghold, in a dead heat with a guy who doesnt know how many genders exists?
Are there really that many Commies in the Lone Star state?

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

but what if it's a really really bad night

[Blake Masters Enjoyer @Based_Masters]

My prediction: R's get 53 Senate seats.

If it's a bad night, we get 52.
If it's a really good night, we get 54.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Well I guess get ready for it to happen twice cuz Brown is gonna win

[Red Eagle Politics @RedEaglePatriot]

Voters don't really tend to fire their Senator only to hire them back two years later.

Only happened once in the past 70 years (Slade Gorton, 1988, R-WA).

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

@GorillaHpn Feels increasingly likely that pollsters are gonna hit a 2025-style polling miss bc they simply do not know how to interpret the results they are getting and would rather say nothing than risk being mocked for seemingly outlandish results like "Texas is Talarico+6".

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

"I better not catch you guys moving goalposts," says man moving goalposts

[Red Eagle Politics @RedEaglePatriot]

The goalpost moving will be insane after election night. What is insane is very few people are claiming the GOP will "win" the Midterms. I expect them to lose the House, several governorships on net, and possibly net Senate seats as well. Yet these people are constantly attacking me and others for giving electoral analysis because they keep inflating their benchmarks to a level where nearly half of high propensity GOP voters just magically disappear. Really hate to break it to them, but that's not going to happen, most likely.

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

Republicans listening to Obama talk after 10 years of Trump's mouth noises

[Ted Cruz @tedcruz]

Barack Obama may be the most effective Democrat politician of our lifetime.

His ability to communicate is really powerful and really dangerous.

If we didn't have the 22nd Amendment, it wouldn't surprise me if Obama spent the rest of his life in the White House.

More on the latest episode of Verdict: Obama Previews Democrats’ Entire 2028 Strategy

https://t.co/JSHH94O1uo

[Shimmersoft @Shimmersoft]

I still maintain that where Mass Effect went wrong was using the suicide mission in the 2nd game instead of the 3rd. It's such a great concept and it would have made more sense to risk killing people in the final rush on the reapers.

[Last Chalice @lastchalice]

Mass Effect 2’s suicide mission is a top 10 moment in gaming.