Knowmadic View

Investing through the lens of commodities and interest rates

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

A deep dive into the supply chain, the cost curve, and the geopolitics behind the aluminum market that investors have stopped paying attention to.
https://t.co/NsPiDiwer2

$CENX #aluminum #globalmacro $AA

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

Iran war update. The ceasefire extensions were expected. Watch for US escalation next.

Iran War: Where we are now https://t.co/hYXNgu6uHc

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

The Iran trap unfolding: Where the investment opportunities are https://t.co/xs3uWyugfI

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

The Iran trap unfolding: Where the investment opportunities are

https://t.co/xs3uWyugfI

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

The Iran war is nowhere close to ending. The ceasefire talk will fail. I’m long shipping companies.

https://t.co/ntZGg1ry0P

$asc $hafn $trmd $stng #globalmacro #shipping #IranWar‌ #profit

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

US-Iran war update: Here is where I think this war is headed in April 2026. Lots of news and confusing headlines about the war. Here are some key details to examine the war - and investment implications.

https://t.co/wls79rs8Wr
#IranWar‌ #globalmacro

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

Silver went from the market darling to a sideshow in 2 months as the de-leveraging took place. Some are discouraged and have moved on. Others see it as a buying opportunity. I'm more bullish now than 2 months ago. $apm.to #silver #gold I'm long this one
https://t.co/lpaLMgFmJ2

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

I believe the gold and silver story is still in tact. Long $EQX

https://t.co/qKvTsqDVSi

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

The protraction of the US-Iran war will impinge on the global economy in chronic ways. I'm short #cruiselines $ccl $nclh $rcl. They are better shorts than #airlines $dal $ual $aal $luv

https://t.co/Ads5SBwm4v

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

@Draguverse Absolutely it does

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

$SAVE / $JBLU will hold 8% of Available Seat Miles. Still fewer than the smallest of the big 4, but the merger takes away a ultra-low-cost-carrier since $JBLU would convert $SAVE planes out of ultra-low-cost mode. Not great for reducing costs IMO.

#antitrust #riskarb

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

@boazweinstein @boazweinstein thank you for the flag. I used to trade for a fund arbbing Canadian CEFs that are cash redeemable. There were some crappy funds back in the day… you might be able to run the same play on other names, though it’s been almost 10 years and I don’t remember much.

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

Just published part 1 of my take on $CANO after Q4/22 release two days ago. In short, I'm not positive on the outlook. Takeout still possible, but the probableness in the short term is ... meh...

https://t.co/oVN0m8k3yH

$HUM #specialsits #riskarb #healthcare #ValueInvesting

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

$CANO take out potentially coming. $HUM is $CANO’s largest customer and directs what I guesstimate to be a meaningful portion of $HUM’s capitated care business. Unlikely that $HUM would let $CANO sink given its importance.
#specialsits #riskarb #antitrust

[dopaminas @AleksasLi]

$CANO 3 out of 4 $HUM private jets flew into nearest to CANO headquarters Miami airport on feb 8. Same day CVS acquired OSH. Yesterday all left Miami within an hour. During those days there were rumors on yahoo board that big DD teams at CANO HQ. Just sayin

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

New info on $CANO. Though a $HUM takeout is possible, Criticism of quality of care seems to be mounting from patients... The sentiment expressed is of diminishing care, possibly due to expanding too quickly.
https://t.co/4cd4UzXK8J
https://t.co/RnrCkOcjbG
#specialsits #riskarb

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

https://t.co/5JJSx9P8GS
The importance of channel checking. It'd be interesting to hear some $CANO ex/employees and patients experience. Working on that.

$HUM #specialsits #riskarb

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

@j16425646 Saw that too. Another observation I'd make is that $CANO reviews used to be positive pre-2020, but gotten worse since then, whereas $OSH reviews appeared always bad... Doesn't directly weaken your argument, but progression of $CANO is worth cognizing I guess.

$HUM #specialsits

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

Not familiar with him, but it appears he is definitely more familiar with the gaming space than is the average arb. Perhaps he raises a good point. You be the judge.

$ATVI $MSFT #riskarb #antitrust #GamingNews #gamingcommunity

[Jamie Moran @JamieMoranUK]

Xbox:
•Buys Activision

“May hurt sonys position in the market”

sony
•Buys 8 Studios
•Buys Exclusivity
•Takes franchises away from Xbox
•Pays to keep title off Game Pass
•pushes £70 games to be standard
•Raises the price of their Consoles
•Pays for Parity

*Gets a Pass

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

Great reference on useful stock research tools.

#investing #StockMarkets #ValueInvesting #research

[Edwin Dorsey @StockJabber]

ICYMI a table of some of the best stock research tools to help you become a better investor

[Knowmadic View @KnowmadicView]

Expected, and finally confirmed, UK CMA press release that $ATVI / $MSFT presents potentialities to lessen competition. Final report due Apr 26, 2023.

#antitrust #riskarb #gamingcommunity

[Diane Alter @diane_alter]

8 February The UK CMA has provisionally found competition concerns as part of its in-depth investigation of the anticipated acquisition by Microsoft $MSFT of Activision Blizzard $ATVI The full provisional findings and appendices will be published shortly. #merger