ArbSensei

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@P_Remarks jensen can get anyone's stock up except his own. it's his curse (+19% ytd nothing to sneeze at to be fair)

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

why do you think Dave has continued to reiterate his wavelength target despite the missing every quarter and gaining minimal mkt share? it's a headscratcher and damages his credibility tremendously

initially, I sort of believed him when he talked about the lag between installation + billing, but so far, we haven't seen any "catch-up" quarters. you would have expected at least some quarters with outsized connections, but we haven't

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@MrMojoRisinX which names are you seeing and why do you think that could be? overall board is pretty tight imo with a few exceptions

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@P_Remarks amy better not miss buyside bogeys by 1% or it's back to being over

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@Zerosumgame33 Cut him some slack, he increased his '28E estimates from $205mm to $499mm...

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@kingdomcapadv any recent thoughts on AIV sale announcements? implies ~$70mm for NYC buildings + Aurora properties, seems a bit underwhelming

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@rennyzucker should look at 7.5mm relative to ADV. trades 10-20mm+ last few days - market can absorb the selling pretty easily. not agreeing or disagreeing with the $100 EPS takes, just saying the selling from WDC is not really a concern

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@MrMojoRisinX Tend to agree - it's a valuable experience and helps develop a risk/reward + probabilistic framework... that said, it's not the most interesting work imo. i've talked to plenty of merger arbs that "hate" it

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@sadandlonely_69 @P_Remarks They don't benefit from strike revenue, but they'll get penalized on tough comps following strikes...

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@P_Remarks can we all just LBO this?

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@Msp194 @SurfShopCapital @ACapitalLP not sure if $SIMO counts, was $90+ before MXL terminated (post-SAMR). only hit those levels recently (3+ years) after an AI boom

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@ACapitalLP Hard to say when that overhang goes away - can take a while. I think the idea that people are "waiting for deal break" to rush in and buy is just not true.

$TASK was supposed to be higher break price too, now trading 30% below

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@RecurveCapital thanks for the candid update on both good & bad. i'm a fan of Dave and it has been painful to watch him lose credibility by missing targets. after Q2 earnings, he went on 4-5+ conferences and reiterated VERY HIGH confidence in the $20-$25mm exit run-rate only to miss

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@JaredKubin Are there typically reversions with these types of extreme moves? Any particular signals that are helpful? Feels like this has been the case all year post-liberation, but noticeably sharper in October so far

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@RagingVentures Are you looking at any particular signals that give you confidence on these pulling back? It feels like a blow the top off type run recently but honestly, it’s felt like that for months

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@okieinvestor @akramsrazor I may be reading this incorrectly, but the common gets 3% which is diluted by the reserve shares (Renesas). think the right way to look at it is including the reserve shares (the 38.7% at least)

"..subject to dilution by the other issuances contemplated in the Plan."

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@okieinvestor @akramsrazor Also would imagine the bondholders were at least partially hedged WOLF at pre-bk prices

[ArbSensei @ArbSensei]

@P_Remarks Haven’t looked at them in a few years but I remember everyone loved them when they were spinning off VSCO. Probably had some COVID bump, but what happened?