Bavarian at the Gate

Merger Arbitrage, Options, Python

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

i still have some $AUPH . With prob 150m FCF this year . they will just buy more of their own stock or pick up names at cash like $KZR adding optionality. Starting to feel more like a financial vehicle to me .

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

got lucky on $CCRN i loaded post break.

Still, price seems to reveal more than the PR does. If it was as cheap as it looked — and mgmt had conviction in the turnaround — I would have expected a meaningfully higher price.

decided to sell everything

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

@he_mowz @Biohazard3737 @dumpster_value Yes, higher productivity-> tightness in input materials along the supply chain. Add higher govt debt as AI becomes national security issue, add some UBI and debt in private sector u quickly goes from deflation to inflationary

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

@Biohazard3737 Not clear to me if mkt correctly says their offering is inadequate for the new world and cybersecurity lives only on a larger platform or if mkt throwing out baby with bathwater . Sure smaller teams , less seats in future. Its saas biz too but who else wud solve cybersecurity?

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

As a manager u shud hv ur head examined if u r attempting to change a major IT backbone. There is always a cheaper + better system avail. u'd want The problem is large corp. always fail at getting rid of legacy. Switching is expsive & next to impossible often. $CRM, $SAP, $NOW

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

@ljp0101 @gr8t4ver @Arbtrader69 @ArbStocktipster in the hearing last Tuesday they said the earliest the wud be able to close was Friday. If same timeline this implies Thursday after Mondays news

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

This turned out to be more timely than i hoped

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

When is $CCRN reporting ? Reuters had estimated last Monday. Cant find anything on the company website. My biggest concern with this situation at this stage wud be weak numbers coupled with a need for extension. Not saying this will be the case but it cud get to it

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

Can $IRBT sweep its debts under the rug before its battery dies ?

[Schaeffer's Investment Research @schaeffers]

3:00PM - A judge is expected to rule on the FTC’s challenge to GTCR’s planned acquisition of Surmodice $SRDX.

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

@pawcio2009 under the radar buyout canidate

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

$CCRN seems to trade on the notion that no news is good news. If you assume they have a TA in place ending with enough time to close before Dec 3rd then we shud know fairly soon.

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

not in $TSEM anymore but still following. around 88 the stock is close to 5.5x EV/Sales. Fully price imho . It is a high-quality, strategically well-positioned specialty foundry with a credible plan to grow but growth will hv a limit given their size and capacity. Cautious!

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

Either $CCRN prefers not to close before the FTC is back (to avoid negative consequences) — but if they really thought the FTC would block, wouldn’t they just close now and fight it in court later?

Or is there a private timing agreement in place.

Thoughts?

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

@CapitalShipyard Wud be a welcome surprise if settle/win. Doubt it - but px seems fair. Still see a few bucks down side on break.

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

If you give 1% for a miracle settlement and max 25% for some the judge to rule in you favor . Thats 25.75% chance of deal closing . If these somewhat randon numbers are correct it implies a downside of around 22.5 on $SRDX

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

I am sure 1315 want to see the some or more than in 2022 for their remaining stake. Given that they are a forced seller I'd assume its very hard to find a buyer and dont even know how the partial agreement for Biocoat plays into this.

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

$SRDX . In 2018 1315 Capital acquired Biocoat in 2018-terms undisclosed- My best guess around 50mio (at 16%stake changed hands at 8.6 mio). In 2022 GTCR took a majority stake after biz had grown exponentially. So lets call it a 150 mio Company then.

[Bavarian at the Gate @trapso888]

The partial disposal of Biocoats was sth like 7 USD or suggesting that it is a meaningless part of the overall Biocoat. Now what do you do if this is not enough and you have 50m break fee to pay if deal gets blocked ?