Day 10: $1,181 -> $1,359
Officially 3x from my initial $420.69 in just 10 trading days.
Jerome Daddy Powell did the heavy lifting today.
Historical hit rates were too good to ignore:
"Inflation 40+" appeared in 6 of the last 7 speeches (87.5%).
"Employment/Unemployment 20+" hit rate in those was 100%.
Loaded Inflation at $0.80 and Employment at $0.87.
Not a big fan of markets where you must predict both the word and the count, especially high thresholds, but data > feelings so I took the trade.
Closed out at $0.99 to avoid any resolution shenanigans.
Polymarket is da way.
Day 9: $1095 -> $1181
We keep going strong. My strategy is to go heavy size (when liquidity allows) into high-probability outcomes, and so far it hasn't disappointed.
"Million/Billion/Trillion 12+" was my pick for yesterday's Trump economy speech. In hindsight, I should have known he'd yap for over an hour about everything, but a W is a W.
Link: https://t.co/yQaczlBaPt
Day 8: $1021 -> $1095
"Mineral" said by Trump during the Rwanda/Congo speech netted me this win.
I tried to size in more, but the lack of liquidity in mention markets really hurts in some events - one of the reasons I didn't call this publicly here on X.
We move forward πͺ