Koleman Strumpf

Econ prof @WakeForest. Research interests = prediction mkts, digitization, public econ, media mkts, illicit mkts, .... co-organizer #VIDEseminar @digitaleconorg

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@InGameHQ @jeffedelstein Thanks nice analysis. And I had not seen the Mandel paper on consumer finance effects: appreciate your discussion of that as well!

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@robinhanson The paper suggests general conclusions of newspapers from unnamed N=1 sample. Hard to understand without knowing more about the paper. Is it the only paper in the city? Paper says it is PE owned which is typically Alden GC. They typically do extensive cuts of headcount.

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@MickBransfield @ThomasARietz @TippieIowa 2007 Phil Primary market omitted.
I am also puzzled since 2000 and 2016 prez markets did not work so well

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@DelReyJay1 @astraffon Thanks! Dang whenever I see it as the fish market it does not look so good. I will have to give that a try!

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@astraffon @DelReyJay1 That looks amazing. What fish is that?

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@odavis_ yes agreed I see that now. still I am not sure how convincing these effects are. I also have issues about exogeneity of treatment timing and ignoring illegal sports betting. but yes interesting work thanks for highlighting it!

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@JacobRobinsonJD Hi Jacob, email is best, [email protected]. Hopefully can coordinate on joining your podcast!

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

To me one of the lessons is from the comments section: exceptionally unfavorable to prediction markets. I am sensing restrictive future regulation: we now have politicians actively opposed and the few supporters do so more out of vague support for free markets (2/2)

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@nytimes has another big dive into prediction mkts, this one far more balanced. How sharps form groups to pool resources and collect info (they discuss a TX poll: different from French Whale approach, and could not understand their sampling). (1/2)

https://t.co/mfhPT9R5XR

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@nytimes article on @CFTC regulation of prediction mkts. The main thesis is the regulatory regime pre-2025 was appropriate. But the prior policy was a virtual across the board prohibition with little willingness to weigh costs and benefits. (1/2)

https://t.co/FOSNcFXsvo

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

Previous CFTC could not be bothered to respond to @Kalshi proposed midterm mkt and dropped @PredictIt no-action letter ... just because. Let us give the new regime a chance to address 30+ years of obstinate opposition. (2/2)

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@nytimes article on @CFTC regulation of prediction mkts. The main thesis is the regulatory regime pre-2025 was appropriate. But the prior policy was a virtual across the board prohibition with little willingness to weigh costs and benefits. (1/2)

https://t.co/FOSNcFXsvo

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@SamTinnerholm Yes exactly. That would be incredible to be able to match those across Kalshi and Polymarket.

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@SamTinnerholm I have a dataset of prior/closed Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. I have stubs, contract name, and creation date. I want to pair up as many as I can as in the example you give: say the ones from both sites on the 2025 French Open.

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@SamTinnerholm Thank you for generously sharing so much work and data. Would it be possible to modify the code here to match historical mkts on the two sites?

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@BenShindel Ugh sounds like what I see at coastal schools. Ironically southern schools are the place most welcoming to Jewish students / faculty in 2026.

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

Best part: shoutout to my son in the closing credits 💯

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

I was on NPR's @throughlineNPR discussing the history of political prediction markets (along with co-author Paul Rhode). They give a great perspective on the historical roots of modern PM's like @PredictIt, @Kalshi and @Polymarket.
https://t.co/MXOGwMKPit

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

Thanks @RundAbdelfatah and @scwyman for having me on!

[Koleman Strumpf @KolemanStrumpf]

@ashleytrubin Interesting. In econ I have seen people obfuscate funding by vested parties by creating middlemen (on campus centers that receive funding) to allow them to deny direct funding