Koltrane_Koll

[Arthur @adezresearch]

November 18, 2025 – High-Probability Technical Bounce on $BTC

Macro remains bearish, but I’m taking longs

After 6/6 perfect shorts ✅ from 103.5k down to 92.8k, we're entering a zone where a technical bounce has high probability of materializing, but the institutional macro context remains unequivocally bearish.

Why the Technical Bounce is Highly Probable?
Current Data as of Nov 18, 2025

Price: $92,798 (+1.45% session)
Perpetual CVD: -113.362k (stabilizing vs. -114k)
Spot CVD: -78.155k (no further deepening)
Funding rate: 0.0069% (neutral, liquidation pressure exhausted)
Structural level: 93k = monthly support defended

H1/H4 Signals Converging

Seller exhaustion confirmed
CVD stopped deepening → institutional absorption at 92-93k
Volume increasing without price collapse = passive buying active

Deleveraging partially completed
OI dropped from 125k to 102k (-18%)
Neutral funding = trapped longs already liquidated
Not too much fuel for additional cascade

Structural confluence intact
93k = validated monthly support (not broken on close on the monthly)

Historical value zone with previous reaction

Classic technical pattern
Extended drop without significant retracement
Oversold on lower timeframes

Probable technical target: 95-98k (previous distribution zone + volume POC)

Why Macro Remains Bearish?

ETF Flows: Brutal Institutional Distribution
Farside Investors Data
Distribution continues
Last 7 days: -$2,479M net
Last 2 days: -$1,358M (acceleration)

Institutions aggressively distributing:
BlackRock (largest ETF) leading outflows

Clear pattern: buy low, sell bounces
Nov 11 (+524M) was a bull trap → followed by -1,144M in 48h

Stablecoins: Absence of New Capital
No stablecoin expansion = no fuel for rally:
USDT flat (0.0% daily) = no new capital entering

USDC contracting (-2% weekly) = liquidity exiting
USDE collapsing -35.5% = massive carry trade deleveraging

No new spot demand to sustain rally beyond technical bounce.

Critical Difference: Bounce vs. Reversal
Technical bounce (high probability):

Sustained bullish reversal (low probability):
Would require:ETF inflows >$500M daily sustained
USDT/USDC expanding ideally >1% daily
Funding rates >0.015% with OI growing
Recapture of 100k+ with institutional volume

My Personal Position & Execution Plan

What I'm doing here:
I'm personally entering longs at current levels (92-93k) with wide stop losses and medium-sized positions on this last swing low, why?

High-probability technical setup with clear invalidation
Risk/reward favorable from monthly support
H1/H4 signals aligning for bounce

The Full Scenario Map
Base case
93k → Technical bounce to 95-98k → Evaluate
At 95-98k resistance:

If we get volume rejection with bearish H4 confirmation → I close longs, look for short re-entry
Macro still bearish (ETF outflows + flat stablecoins) = distribution zone

Extended case
If we break 95-98k with volume → Extension to 105-110k possible
This is where it gets interesting:

Breaking 98k with institutional volume would change short-term structure
105-110k zone = previous broken support turned resistance
This is where I'd look for short re-entries with lower timeframe confirmations

Setup: HTF resistance + bearish LTF shift + continuation of negative ETF flows

Bull invalidation case
Sustained break above 110k with:

ETF inflows flipping massively positive
Stablecoin expansion accelerating
Funding rates >0.015% sustained
Would require macro thesis reassessment

Risk Management & Caution
Important Notes:
This is a counter-trend position in a bearish macro environment. I'm taking it because:

Technical setup is high-probability from monthly support
Risk is clearly defined
Position sized appropriately for counter-trend trade

But be cautious:
This could easily be a dead-cat bounce that gets rejected at 95-98k

[Arthur @adezresearch]

Bitcoin Market Cycle Analysis

This Is The Data You Need To See To Avoid Getting Trapped In A Bear Market:

A Critical Examination of the data on Liquidity vs. Halving Narratives

A new thesis dominates crypto discourse: "Halvings are obsolete, only liquidity drives Bitcoin, the bull market extends into 2026 or longer."

But when institutional market makers synchronize this exact narrative, we must examine data, not consensus.

Let's analyze rigorously:

[Arthur @adezresearch]

$BTC Flush Complete ✅

Full TP reached for all shorts, this is exactly why the market dumped, and we saw it coming before everyone else (data + macro simplified)

The next plan:

I’ve been extremely vocal about leaning bearish for the last couple of weeks.

Earlier, I had mentioned that ETF flows and stablecoin inflows were clearly signaling weakness in the market, you can read more about that in the threads I’ve linked below.

Not only that, but I traded live from the high down to this point, shorting BTC, ETH, and several altcoins on my free telegram.

Today, I closed the last remaining portions of those shorts, including the altcoin positions, here's whats next:

About the Missed Relief Bounce:
We never got the small bounce around $104–106K that was possible scenario
I did take a half-size long punt there, as stated before, aiming for a relief bounce, not a reversal.
That long failed quickly and took a small hit (half size, you can read this on the telegram)

But overall, the larger directional trade worked perfectly, and I’m fully out of my short positions.

Where We Are Now:
Price: $101,376
Funding Rate: +0.0073 (still positive)
Open Interest: 54.8K (rising during the drop)
CVD: –2.4K (sellers still dominant)
Interpretation:
We’ve hit the Long POI zone but there’s still no real flush.
OI remains high, funding positive — meaning no capitulation yet.

Next Plays:
$98–102K + we see a funding flip to negative:
→ I’ll start scaling into longs, targeting $118–120K into late November.
If we bounce weakly to $104–106K:
→ Likely just relief, not reversal.
Break above $112.5K on volume and positive CVD:
→ Bear thesis invalidated → $118-12K target zone.

[UNKNOWN TRADER @Learnernoearner]

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[Koltrane_Koll @KoltraneK]

@MizerXBT Would like to know how you set up a POI looking into a chart, and how importants are the “ messages “ carried by single candles in different Time frames, before entering a trade

[Koltrane_Koll @KoltraneK]

@MizerXBT 100%

[Koltrane_Koll @KoltraneK]

Who’s crying ?

[Koltrane_Koll @KoltraneK]

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[Koltrane_Koll @KoltraneK]

@bulliever7 @exitpumpBTC You can see shorts gathering strength (watch open interest going up) until they met strong buy limit orders (check order books) and during Asia the price is driven up, closing those shorts (see OI going down)

It’s way more complex, but this could be a pov

[Koltrane_Koll @KoltraneK]

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[Koltrane_Koll @KoltraneK]

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