OpenAI, Anthropic and other leading AI labs face a growing challenge: Better models aren't necessarily attracting more usage. A 10-point intelligence advantage now earns just 20% more developer traffic, down from nearly 69% in late 2025.
Full story: https://t.co/V3pI2VYOLb
I created a mock-up for a preprint server called the 'Test of time' which serves as an evidence-record for each article in perpetuity.
https://t.co/tctONR5PoX
Given that science is speeding up, we need a place to track the strength of collective scientific evidence.
LLMs used to often be wrong. Now they are often bullshit. I preferred them when they were wrong. They literally use language where they can not be wrong. They start sounding like my most insufferable colleagues!
Me: What’s 2+2?
Old LLM: 5.
New LLM: The move isn’t to fixate on a number. It’s to ask what the number is doing. The real payoff comes from holding both twos in productive tension.
What about we don't put up laws indemnifying the AI companies and instead accelerate the mechanisms to sue them? Because it sure seems like this is the single most important "alignment" action, far more useful than any alignment work.
Spicy take incoming. 🔥🔥
The combined bomber offensive in WW2 finally crippled the Axis powers by destroying their fuel supply chain. Then it took the industrial might of the entire US to build tens of thousands of bombers.
Now anyone between you and the Middle East can burn down a refinery, tank farm, pipeline, or tanker, with an easily assembled robotic flying bomb that costs less than my AI subscriptions.
@PeterZeihan predicted "the tanker war" would happen in the Indian Ocean but it doesn't matter where. There's only one country that could plausibly enforce global peace on shipping lanes and only one industrial power that is self sufficient on oil supply, and it's the same country.
Trump asks Iran and Zelensky to please stop blowing shit up for five minutes, but the primary victims of this phase of the kinetic conflict are China and Europe, both places that have spent decade(s) ignoring and/or undermining the Pax Americana and, in Europe's case, going out of their way to destroy their own economies.
China wants to be a big boy on the global stage? Let them spend their own blood and treasure pacifying the Middle East.
Europe wants to stick it to Trump? It's easier to tell the yanks to get fucked if you don't rely on them for literally every aspect of your industrial infrastructure and economic stability.
I've been in rooms with senior energy ministers from Europe and China. The Chinese are rational and pragmatic, the Europeans are functionally comatose, but neither party has a better plan than getting into a bidding war to buy whatever LNG the US can spare, forever.
It is blindingly obvious to me that the least unstable future equilibrium is one where oil users localize supply using solar synthetic fuel tech, essentially a silico-industrial form of farm-to-table agriculture. Short supply chains, locally secured.
It is equally obvious to me that a generation of people who grew up in the "developed" world are going to endure a decade or more of severe hardship before they, collectively, accept the L and move to the next step. Most people would rather watch their neighbor freeze than admit they were wrong.
Most research problems I see start before the research: the question isn't sharp yet, and everything downstream is thus murky.
So I built Question First, a free tool that gets your question and logic clear before you start. https://t.co/l9ay1QtnVK 🧵
It's free. Try it on the project you're stuck on right now: https://t.co/l9ay1QtVLi Teaching a methods course or onboarding new students this fall? Send it to them. That's who I built it for. 🙏