Eclair ✝️

[Luc-Ferdinand.Saline @L_F_Saline]

Jean Baudrillard vous souhaite bonnes vacances !

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@DerLoup @Gizzmo4141 You should and it's fun!

[cirnohappy 🇨🇦✝️🇯🇵 @cirnohappy]

Cirno's Perfect Math Class #4 📃

Today we cover medical screens, a heterodox take on an air crash, and the mystery of the Great Pyramid!

The whole idea of conditional probability is that of weights. A canonical example is that of a clinical test. Say the PSA test has a 15% false positive. This means that 15% of true negatives are flagged as positive. Let's assume that the false negative rate is 20%. This means that 20% of true positives are missed.

Now you go to your doctor and get tested (terrible pun I know). The test comes positive! Should you be worried?

There is critical piece of information that is missing. What could it be? We need to know the prior, or in this case, the baseline risk of prostate cancer in the relevant population. Let's say that you are of the age and health profile that an estimated 5% of your cohort would be expected to actually have it.

Then let us consider the four possibilities, using weights:

1. Actually positive, tested positive: 5% (the prior) * 80% = 4%
2. Actually positive, tested negative: 5% * 20% = 1%
3. Actually negative, tested positive: 95% * 15% = 14.25%
4. Actually negative, tested negative: 95% * 85% = 80.75%

Note that the four probabilities do add up to 100%
But we have new information (positive test) that allows us to discard some cases, namely lines 2 and 4.

What is left? 4% and 14.25%
So the probability that you actually have prostate cancer is (4% / (4% + 14.25%) ≈ 21.9%

So should you be worried? More than before you took the test (recall the baseline was 5%), but not so much that you should be taking radical measures like surgery. For this reason, a wise man called Charles T. Munger would always scratch out his doctor's orders for the PSA test. He lived to the fine old age of 99.

This is an extremely powerful way of thinking. I use it every day where I work (options trading). But most humans get it wrong! Here's a news headline that many of us noticed from last year: "Sole survivor of Air India crash still seeks answers" -BBC

The official story: https://t.co/twgD2N2pUx

My interest was piqued because this was a 787 crash shortly after takeoff, and thus with nearly full tanks of fuel. The plane hit a building (which didn't explode nor collapse lol) and the single purported survivor was supposedly seated in 11A (not at the rear of the plane where survivors are more likely to be found). Incredibly, he was only lightly injured and was able to walk away from the wreckage.

Following the example above, a grid like this came up in my head:

1. Chances of surviving and being able to walk if on the plane: 1/100,000
2. Chances of dying or getting heavily injured if on the plane: 99,999/100,000
3. Chances of there being a fraud on the ground where a passerby claims to be a crash survivor, conditional that a plane crash has happened in any crowded part of India: 1/100
4. Chances of there not being a fraud on the ground where a passerby claims to be a crash survivor, conditional that a plane crash has happened in any crowded part of India: 99/100

These numbers are of course approximate, but they come from some familiarity of civil aviation, engineering, physics, and the relative propensities of people to cheat and commit fraud.

Quickly, we can see that if a relatively unscathed "survivor" is spotted on the ground, then lines 2 and 4 are not germane.

There were 230 passengers, so the approximate odds of a lightly-injured survivor are (actual will depend on correlation and independence assumptions and we won't go there) 230 * 1/100,000 = 23 / 10,000
And the odds of there being a fraudster are simply 1 / 100 as above.

So the odds of the "survivor" being real are approximately (0.0023 / 0.01 + 0.0023) ≈ 23.2%

Interesting. Why would someone fake being a plane survivor? Fame, fun and excitement, compensation from the airline, and a potential UK visa can all be reasons why a passerby in India may want to commit such a fraud. I hate that human nature is this way, but when thinking in probability we should take the world as it is.

Now for our final example! My dear oomfie made some bold claims concerning the Great Pyramid of Giza. The one "coincidence" that I found most challenging to my previously held beliefs was the fact that speed of light (defined as exactly 299,792,458 m/s), divided by 10^7, converted to a line of latitude in decimal notation, exactly traverses the Pyramid!! If you don't believe me, try pasting (29.9792458, 31.134015) into Google Maps.

Crucially, the meter and second are not arbitrarily defined units, but both are linked to some physical property of the Earth! The circumference of the Earth is approximately 40,000m, and one second is 1/86,400, 86,400 being merely the 60 seconds * 60 minutes * 24 hours of a mean solar day, or one rotation of the Earth. The speed of light is a universal constant. Finally, the definitions of the second and degree rely on highly composite numbers like 360, 60, and 24.

So, these quantities, being tied to physical and numerical reality, would have been available to any humans preceding us on Earth.

Here's a simplified table:

1. The people who made the Pyramid knew about c, and decided to construct the Pyramid on this latitude on purpose.

2. The people who made the Pyramid didn't know about c, but just happened to build the Pyramid on the exact latitude line by chance.

Assuming that the builders had a choice of any latitude (all equally likely) within the borders of modern Egypt, which runs about 9 degrees tall, or 1000km, we can take the side lengths of the Pyramid's base (440 cubits or 440 * 0.5236 ≈ 230.38 meters) and divide by 1,000,000m for the approximate chance that a randomly distributed Pyramid in Egypt would fall on this line of latitude. This is 230.38 / 1000000 ≈ 0.023%. Note that this is the odds that the Pyramid, built directly north-south (as it is), would intersect at all with the latitude, not necessarily a bulls-eye.

What about the prior? Specifically, what are the chances that some earlier, technologically sophisticated peoples constructed the Pyramid? This is where things get hairy. The results of a Bayesian analysis depend heavily on the prior. If we had conclusive proof that no such civilization existed, then we are still in the clear, and can conclude that this was pure coincidence. However, as any mathematician knows, proving the absence of something is much harder than finding a counterexample. I don't really know where to start, but considering that in recent months and years I have (to my dismay) discovered to my satisfaction, many more lies in the historical record, I am prepared to give at least a 1% chance that some technologically advanced predecessor civilization did in fact exist.

So if our predecessors knew about c, what are the chances that they would build it on the latitude line corresponding to the speed of light? Let's say they have a splendid sense of numerology and we can assign this with something like 10%.

Case 1: 1% (They knew) * 10% (they decided to build it on this line) = 0.1%

Okay this is not much, but let's now look at Case 2.

Case 2: 99% (They didn't know) * 0.023% (built it here by chance) ≈ 0.0228%

This simulation, as reliant on the priors as it is, suggests a 0.1% / (0.1% + 0.0228%) ≈ 81% chance that @cirnosad is right! This is a deeply disturbing conclusion, one that shook me to the core.

What have we avoided till now in this lesson? Any mention of Bayes' formula! It's true, your baka struggles to remember it because he usually resorts to intuition, absolving him of memorizing this unwieldily relation:
P(A | B) = P(B | A) P(A) / P(B)

Thanks for following me all the way. /End

[Lord Bebo @MyLordBebo]

🇬🇧‼️🚨 BROTHEL TO SAVE A VILLAGE?

The UK government wants to put 1250 single male migrants into a facility that borders a small village with 350 people.

Piddington has a small population with 65% being women or children. So for every woman and kid, 9 single male migrants will be there.

Now everyone ask the question “what will the men do?” And they cynically demand a “brothel” so the villagers will be safe.

Kinda crazy that everyone knows it’s a bad idea.

So the suggested safety concept is to give the asylum seekers prostitutes so they don’t hurt the villagers? That by itself is a crazy place to be.

Also that means, Brits pay their taxes so refugees can be housed and then British taxes would pay for prostitutes for these men … work hard folks, the prostitutes need their money. 🤷‍♂️

[Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️🇷🇺 @cirnosad]

Parasitism is all about forcing you to make a bond with something you don't want or need.
JudeoSatanism takes it a step further and tears apart all the bonds you do need, prevents the forging of any such bonds, and even destroys the very object of your subject.
It must be destroyed!

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@cirnosad Goodnight!

[Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️🇷🇺 @cirnosad]

If this gets 500 RTs (XD) I'll make another thread, connecting this entire system to something equally shocking, revealing a weapon of creation and destruction that exceeds anything we have ever imagined.

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@Telegraph @ThatAlexWoman We're past the point where we listened to women's opinion.

[auspill @aus_pill]

"Hate speech is a genocidal concept made up by communists as a pretext to silence resistance against Australian's replacement"

[TECTONE 🇺🇸 @Tectone]

Why are they called minorities if they’re literally fucking everywhere

[Damien Rieu @DamienRieu]

🇬🇧 Évolution du nombre de mosquées en Grande-Bretagne.

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@cirnosad Please more!! a lot more!!

[Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️🇷🇺 @cirnosad]

The Revelation of the Pyramid, the Moon, the Earth and the Sun /📄

It's time for a geometry thread. If people like this an there's a sufficiently positive response I'll dive much deeper into these sorts of things in the future, I've left out almost everything in this thread to make it readable.
📏📐🌍🌕🌞

Those who built the pyramids had the following measures:

degrees (dividing a circle into 6*60, 60 being a highly composite number) -- more on this shortly.
seconds (dividing the day into 2*12 divisions of 60*60 minutes/seconds, 12 being another highly composite number)
meters (meters are a division of the Earth's polar circumference. For some reason the measure 10,000 pops up here, not relevant for the discussion but note its base 10 rather than 60, on the surface.)

Now, meters is probably the most fanciful to all of you, I'm sure you probably won't believe me that a "modern" measure like the meter was used to design the pyramid.

But surely you would believe that they used the royal cubit? The modern tale is it's derived from a human's forearm and palm length. Now you've probably heard this was discovered because they found a bunch of marked sticks. That's not true -- the royal cubit shows up in the geometry of the pyramid itself:

280 cubits high
440 cubits wide *

The most precise location where these measurements are used are in the so-called King's chamber, which has a more complex geometrical base of measurement. In 1865, the Prussian Karl Richard Lepsius determined what the cubit was in meters:

0.5326 meters. This may seem completely random to you, but it isn't and it's actually quite revealing.

This is exactly Pi/6 meters.

If you drew a circle that had a diameter of 1 meter, then divided it into 6 pieces, then select one of the pieces of the circle, it will measure exactly 1 cubit. Since the meter is based on the Earth, then of course, the cubit is also. But there's more to this choice than it it seems. If you look at the remainder of the circle, the arc length will obviously be

Pi - Pi/6 ~ 5 Pi / 6

This is almost exactly the Golden Ratio, and I mean 0.0015% off. An exact match is impossible as can be proven using Galois theory, pi is transcendental to the algebraic numbers which include irrational numbers like the golden ratio (1 + sqrt(5))/2.

Remember the ancient problem of squaring the circle? This is exactly what this measurement and actually most of the dimensions of the pyramid do.

But remember how I mentioned the meter is also a subdivision of the Earth's radius? That polar circumference is roughly ~40,000,000 meter. If you do the math, you'll notice something immediately: Since the pyramid uses this subdivision with pi, it measures ~2 seconds of rotation along the Earth's surface, to 0.4-0.7% depending on which reference you take (height or length).

That means the Pyramid is roughly a 43,200x scale model of geometry related to the Earth. or 400x108. That 400 appears in the meter's Earth subdivision ratio, so 108 seems to be the common base, which in turn is 3*6*6.

Now there is one measure I haven't mentioned yet, and it will probably shock you if you haven't seen it before. The mile. Everyone makes fun of Americans for using the mile when everyone else has "moved on" to the meter. The truth is the two measurements are directly related in a way that's surprising.

But to see that we have to momentarily abandon measurements along the Earth and look to the heavens, the Moon, the Sun and the space between them and the Earth.

The moon itself has a diameter of 2160 miles. If you do a lot of mental arithmetic, you'll see immediately that 2160=108*20. Fascinating right?

What about the Earth? Well, it's kind of impossible to state a general diameter, because the Earth isn't shaped like a sphere, but if we took its volume and squashed it into a precise sphere (i.e. the volumetric radius), its diameter would be ~7920 miles.

That's equal to: 108 * 440/6. Yeah that's the 440 from the cubit measurement. The common factor is 36 when it comes to the moon or the Earth due to the component of 3. When you place the moon on top of the Earth in a diagram as I have in the second image, we get more geometry linking Phi and Pi, and the weirdest thing of all:

The Earth and the Moon seem to be "drawn" on a grid. This is the kind of thing you'd expect from engineered products, not planetary bodies that allegedly were the result of random planetary accretion. Pause of a second and think about it and you'll either see this as a true revelation or a coincidence.

Here's another coincidence for you: The filled pastel circle has a circumference that is almost 8 in the scale of the diagram, i.e. the same as the perimeter of the square. The Earth and the Moon just happen to square the circle as well. Did the choice of the meter play into this little mathematical message?

Ok, two planetary bodies. 0.03% errors, divisions using highly composite numbers that align with our measurements of time, there's still a non-astronomical chance that this is a coincidence.

That is, until you bring the Sun into the picture.

How many seconds are there in a day? If you were in school you probably memorized this calculation:

60 * 60 * 24 = 86,400 seconds.

If someone every tries to quiz you about the diameter of the Sun, you now have a neat trick up your sleeve: multiply the number of seconds in a day by 10, and turn it into miles:

60 * 60 * 24 * 10 miles = 864,000 miles

Is the radius of the sun. In terms of the 108 mile base, that's 8000.

The ratio of the diameter of the moon to the diameter of the sun is exactly 400:

108 * 8000 / 108 * 20 = 400.

Another integer, on a relative grid. Another coincidence surely, the redditor mind will say. Well, no, it cannot be a coincidence and tomorrow you'll see it with your own eyes.

That's because the Earth to Moon distance to Earth to Sun distance during a solar eclipse is exactly 400 as well. It has to be, otherwise the Moon cannot perfectly cover Sun such that we can see only its corona.

But it doesn't quite end there. That's a relative measurement, what about the absolute one?

The distance from the Earth to the Moon during this event is roughly ~108 * the diameter of the Moon.
The distance from the Earth to the Sun is equal to ~108 * the diameter of the sun.
The diameter of the Sun? It's equal 109* the diameter of the Earth. Off by 1, but close.

What does all of this mean? That's up to you. But there is indeed something practical you can take from this.

There is another cycle, other than the year: precession of the equinoxes.

This is almost exactly equal to 240 * 108 = ~25,920 years. The great pyramid itself indicates equinoxes using its 8-fold geometry (please look this up it's amazing). So you have the following things going on:

* The rotation of the Earth around itself (the second hand).
* The rotation of the Earth around the sun (let's call this the minute hand)
And finally the precision cycle represented by the stars. We'll call this a full day in the wheel of time.

The sun rises and sets, and this planet sees a cyclical disaster every half precision cycle. The last one was during the so-called Younger Dryas event, almost exactly half a precession cycle ago. That means we are due for another one, very soon.

Furthermore, it means the indicator of the hour hand is one of the stars or systems associated with it, and the Pyramid's alignment to it. Which could it be?

To figure the answer out to the that we'd have to dive much deeper into the geometry of the site of the pyramid itself as well as the ancient stories about the sky passed down to us since time immemorial. For now, think about all of this as you enjoy the total eclipse tomorrow, leaving you with the ancient riddle of the sphinx:

What starts the day on four legs, goes through the afternoon on two, and ends the day on three.

Man, and his destiny.

/End

[* As an aside the ratio is the perfect 7/11 I drew in that other diagram as you can verify for yourself.]

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@ll_tool_j @cirnosad Thanks!
We don't really know the age of the pyramids right?
We can only date mater that's around them and approximate their age. They seem to have been built on a 26000 years clock.

[Zarathustra @zarathustra5150]

Stereotype accuracy is literally one of the largest, most replicated, most reliable findings in the history of social psychology.

[Eclair ✝️ @KrazEclair]

@cirnosad Everyday I learn that the world is worse than I previously thought.

[Basil the Great @BasilTheGreat]

🚨🇩🇪Horrifying stats out of Germany

- 4% of the entire German population are asylum seekers
- 1% of the entire population is Syrian
- 5% of all Syrians alive live in Germany
- 40% of under 5's have a migrant background

The AfD are needed badly

[Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️🇷🇺 @cirnosad]

The War In Heaven From Hermetic Principles /📄

In order to defeat your enemy you have to have a much longer enemy than them.

You must remember their origin, why they hate you, why you had to fight them, who you truly are.

Most White people have forgotten that. A few of us remember it all, down to the details, and we even remember why and how we remember it.

Many of the Red demons do remember, and the majority of them act as one life form.

Until we rejoin and reform our true pure macro-life form we will not prevail against the demons from hell despite all our advantages. Everything about this world, the technological revolution, the social ills, the wars, the ideologies, the unwanted waves of brown bioweapons, it's all to prevent us from reforming our macro-life form.

But I know we will do it. We will rise again and we will finally slay the chaos demon who fell back to this part of the universe. Not for our sake, but the sake of something even bigger than all of us.

Remember the parable of Jesus, the Mustard tree comes from the smallest seed. That means even the smallest battles change the course of the largest, this is true at every single scale. That means what happens on Earth will ultimately affect the entire universe. Can you imagine if these demons escaped the solar system and began multiplying exponentially? Does it begin to make sense to you when I put it that way?

Then, you'll understand what I mean by macro-life form when I go into the other direction: What makes up your consciousness? Think about what makes it go away. I don't mean sleeping -- because you are still conscious during that time and sometimes even moreso than when you're awake. If you've ever gone under surgery with general anaesthetic then you've essentially already experienced "death". Your consciousness basically disappears* -- and for a simple reason.

Your neurons are no longer able to communicate with each other and your consciousness disappears. The half baked idea of Descartes, of some external source of the "mind", is defeated right there: That which disappears and then appears upon removal of another component is equivalent. Your consciousness is simply the organisation between your neurons.

Similarly, the consciousness of our species is the connection between all of us. This is why the entire modern world is designed to apply an anaesthetic to all of it, so that other macro-species, browns, reds, and other demons, can consume us and then this world. Their collective consciousness forms egregores, which are the macro-life forms I speak of. Higher order consciousness. Then they can go on to their true mission which is consuming and returning the entire universe to waste and chaos. But we won't let them! It's better that this entire world dies than allowing heaven to be corrupted by them yet again.

/End

* You can tell this is the case because you don't experience any flow of time no longer how long the operation is. You're basically "teleported" forward if you survive it. I've experienced this many times.