Kritika Saxena

Postdoctoral Researcher @univgroningen, PhD in Development Economics, previously @GVAGrad. Author of in Journal of Population Economics

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

BREAKING: The $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme Just Collapsed

Last night at 4pm EST, something unprecedented happened. Nvidia stock rallied 5% on earnings, then crashed into negative territory within 18 hours. Wall Street algorithms detected what humans couldn’t: the numbers don’t add up.

Here’s what they found.

Nvidia reported $33.4 billion in unpaid bills, up 89% in one year. Customers who bought chips haven’t paid for them yet. The average wait time for payment stretched from 46 days to 53 days. That extra week represents $10.4 billion that may never arrive.

Meanwhile, Nvidia stockpiled $19.8 billion in unsold chips, up 32% in three months. But management claims demand is insane and supply is constrained. Both cannot be true. Either customers aren’t buying or they’re buying without cash.

The cash flow tells the real story. Nvidia generated $14.5 billion in actual cash but reported $19.3 billion in profit. The gap is $4.8 billion. Healthy chip companies like TSMC and AMD convert over 95% of profits to cash. Nvidia converts 75%. That’s distress level.

Here’s where it gets criminal.

Nvidia gave $2 billion to xAI. xAI borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips. Microsoft gave OpenAI $13 billion. OpenAI committed $50 billion to buy Microsoft cloud. Microsoft ordered $100 billion in Nvidia chips for that cloud. Oracle gave OpenAI $300 billion in cloud credits. OpenAI ordered Nvidia chips for Oracle data centers.

The same dollars circle through different companies and get counted as revenue multiple times. Nvidia books sales, but nobody actually pays. The bills age. The inventory piles up. The cash never comes.

AI company CEOs admitted it themselves last week. Airbnb’s CEO called it vibe revenue. OpenAI burns $9.3 billion per year but makes $3.7 billion. That’s a $5.6 billion annual loss. The $157 billion valuation requires $3.1 trillion in future profits that MIT research shows 95% of AI projects will never generate.

Peter Thiel sold $100 million in Nvidia on November 9. SoftBank dumped $5.8 billion on November 11. Michael Burry bought put options betting Nvidia crashes to $140 by March 2026.

Bitcoin, which tracks AI speculation, dropped from $126,000 in October to $89,567 today. That’s a 29% crash. AI startups hold $26.8 billion in Bitcoin as collateral for loans. When Nvidia falls another 40%, those loans default, forcing $23 billion in Bitcoin sales, crashing crypto to $52,000.

The timeline is now certain. February 2026, Nvidia reports fourth quarter and reveals how many bills aged past 60 days. March 2026, credit agencies downgrade. April 2026, the first restatement. The fraud that took 18 months to build unwinds in 90 days.

Fair value for Nvidia: $71 per share. Current price: $186. The math is simple.

This is the fastest moving financial fraud in history because algorithms detected it in real time. Human investors are 90 days behind.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Read the full data driven deep dive article here - https://t.co/sDEf5Mdrtc

[Asjad Naqvi @AsjadNaqvi]

The mother of all #DiD papers just dropped and #X is completely silent about it:

Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner's Guide
Baker, Callaway, Cunningham, Goodman-Bacon, and Sant'Anna

https://t.co/lax7Eb2jSA

Comes with a complete checklist of steps!

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

6/ If you're interested in the intersection of gender, economics, and policy, check out the full paper here: https://t.co/WEgwhFYLFS

Would love to hear your thoughts! 🔽

#GenderEconomics #DevelopmentEconomics #CashTransfers #PublicPolicy #missingwomen

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

My paper with @sayali_1810 was recently published in @JPopEcon. It explores the unintended consequences of India's Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), a conditional cash transfer program for maternal healthcare.

What did we find? A thread 🧵👇

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

5/ Policy takeaway:
✅ Financial incentives help, but must be paired with gender-sensitive interventions.
✅ Health workers need training & support to challenge gender-biased decision-making.
✅ Early childhood nutrition can boost survival

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

PhD position for Dev Econ @UniHannover

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

Check out how religion shapes ecology in the JMP by @NehaDeopa

[Jennifer Doleac @jenniferdoleac]

Neha Deopa

JMP: "Sacred Ecology: The Environmental Impact of African Traditional Religions"

Website: https://t.co/56iJgi99jk

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

@JoelleNoailly @snsf_ch @JXDaubanes @WorldBank Congratulations 👏

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

Kicking off the conference on women's empowerment in Dhaka with @BRACUniversity @univgroningen

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

@Laura_Nowzohour @GVAGrad @JoelleNoailly @bweder @JXDaubanes Congratulations!

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

Can't wait to get my hand on this book by @N_Kabeer

[Naila Kabeer @N_Kabeer]

Happy reading!

[Isabel Guenther @Guenther_ETH]

Retweet or apply: Postdoc fellowships in honor of Prof. Stephan Klasen at ⁦@uniGoettingen⁩ in development economics. More info 👇

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

Podcast about my PhD thesis is out! Thank you @GVAGrad and ABD stories for giving me the opportunity to speak about my work wit @sayali_1810

[Geneva Graduate Institute @GVAGrad]

#research #podcast
On this episode of ABD Stories, recent #PhD graduate Kritika Saxena discusses finance and #FamilyPlanning in #India
https://t.co/0uH61mrOyH
@KritzzSaxena

[Elias Papaioannou @EliasPapaioann2]

With support from @Wheeler_LBS, @cepr_org, @DrNathanNunn, @lwantchekon, Stelios, and I, offer an open-access free online course on #African #economics #history start Feb 1. many guests and plenary sessions, @bill_easterly, @JoHenrich, Jim Robinso and more
https://t.co/DxlHIndlgI

[Kritika Saxena @KritzzSaxena]

Check out the transformed #rarevoicesineconomics initiative by brilliant young economists.

[Rare Voices in Economics @RareVoicesEcon]

📢 We are now-
RARE VOICES IN ECONOMICS
-An initiative by PhD students at @IHEID, @UNIGEnews, @unil, & @EPFL_en.
We welcome everybody, regardless of gender, who shares our vision of feminism, inclusivity, and respect or is open to exchange ideas constructively.

-A Thread (1/n)

[Alice Evans @_alice_evans]

Oh wow, people really can't take criticism from women,

As illustrated in @sarahcpr's great book:

[LSE Department of Economics @LSEEcon]

🚨 Exciting News 🚨

We're thrilled to announce the re-launch of the Applicant Mentoring Programme (AMP) for individuals applying to PhDs in Economics.

Read on to find out more➡️(1/6)

#EconTwitter @CamEcon @OxfordEconDept @EconUCL @warwickecon

[Rare Voices in Economics @RareVoicesEcon]

Roundtable discussion on "Pathways for More Inclusive Economics Departments - What Works and What Doesn't?" has started.
@UNIGEnews @IHEID @unil @EPFL_en @WomenTSE
@GoldsmithsUoL @essec