Poker players hold out for a strong hand.
A predator bides its time waiting to catch its prey
Snipers wait with composure for the right shot.
Yet, most traders don't follow their own rules because of impatience and a lack of discipline.🤷♂️
Comments on being a discretionary trader of chart patterns
Subject: waiting for patterns to become completed
Early in my career (1980s) my urge was to immediately enter a trade when pattern was still developing in order to gain an early entry. If you are a pattern trader, do you have that urge?
I discovered that I could get chopped up badly and then when the real breakout occurred I had become gun shy and missed the breakout.
So I forced myself to wait for proper breakouts and then act. My performance -- and emotional health -- improved markedly.
This is where "patience" and "discipline" come into play. Once a proper chart pattern is identified, then the challenge is to have the patience to WAIT for a proper ATR breakout -- and then have the disciple to ACT by having entry stops entered.
Can you related to any of this?????
ULTIMATE #FOMC TRADE GUIDE - 8 GOLDEN RULES TO REMEMBER:
❗️Important - see full post!
In just a few hours, the Fed's chair, Jerome H. Powell, will reveal the FOMC's decision about the pending rate hike decision. As the market prices no rate hike at this time with a 98.7% probability, it is recommended to be ready for other outcomes. This short trading guide with 8 rules will help keep your money safer. Enjoy:
1. Short-term Impact
FOMC is an event trading day, which means it most often impacts the financial markets only in the short term. Don't expect a bull run or a bear market out of this. Keep your emotions in check to avoid deception.
2. Expect Price Shocks
A price shock refers to a sudden and significant change in the price (3-5x average volatility) from unexpected news or press announcements. It's an unpredictable event - it can't be forecasted. Most often, the price shocks are fully retraced.
3. FOMC Days Are Noisy
Trading on noisy, volatile event days is not safe. Even if you guess the outcome right, beware! Mistaking luck for skill may lead to overconfidence bias and overinvesting, leading to ruin.
4. Mostly a Coin Flip
It’s been proven over time to be rather a coin flip with little statistical advantage. When you bet on a 50/50 chance and happen to be right, your mind will reinforce your confirmation bias, strengthening hindsight and outcome errors. It's very dangerous.
5. Exit Windfall Profit
Typically, right after the FOMC decision, prices retrace to the previous levels with little effect except for volatility spikes. Hence, if a windfall profit appears, it is due to chance and not one’s trading genius. You might want to consider closing a lucky profit before it fades away.
6. “Buy The Rumor, Sell The News”
This heuristic (learned behavior) often drives prices higher in anticipation of the news release. Traders will often follow this particular instruction blindly. It's similar to "buy support, sell resistance" or "buy low, sell high," while it's proven that "buy high, sell higher" is a more profitable concept.
7. Disparity Means Volatility
The magnitude of the price reaction depends on the disparity between the expectations and actual news. The greater the disparity, the bigger the volatility. Example: if 98.7% of investors are pricing in a 0bps rate hike for this session, sudden news of a 25bps rate hike would trigger proportionate disappointment and a bearish price reaction.
8. Don't Fight The Fed
While the Fed's decision is speculative, trading against their trend-setting calls is a losing bet. Trying to guess and time barely predictable outcomes of what J. Powell says is one thing. However, persistent trading against their decisions defining the monetary policy is unwise.
Recommendation: For an average risk-averse and loss-averse trader, it is suggested to stay on the sidelines. At times, no action is the best action. Still, making money decisions based on rationale and individual risk preference is necessary. Some traders are risk-seeking gamblers by nature, and they are good at it.
If you've enjoyed this short FOMC trading guide, I'd appreciate it if you could share this post. Perhaps more traders need to see it urgently. Also, follow me and don't miss my big announcement today. It may turn a few trading careers around - maybe yours?😉
Thanks for reading. God bless
@Tom__Capital I did $50k yesterday - I have an Institutional account as I trade as a company through a trust. Maybe that's why.. anyway I can do $100k per day. Never had an issue.