Kyle St. Clair

Trader. Using X to help check myself and stick to my strategy. Not Financial Advice

[Michael Duncan @MichaelDuncan]

Having to listen to Collinsworth call a Mahomes game against your team should make you eligible for some sorta class action lawsuit against the NFL

[Swingtrader @Swingtrader]

Been posting on here since 2018

Keeping to yourself / not caring about anyone else doing is the way to go

Everybody has an opinion, most of the time yours will be different than theirs, which is why we have a market

I never understood the obsession with putting others down, this game is literally the hardest job on the planet, 2 out of a 100 people succeed over 5 year lookback

It's not easy, it's hard as shit

So all the people who act like its easy are phonies, yet they sucker bajillions of people every single day

We should be lifting each other up, not down, as this is very much a brotherhood as the highs and lows we experience can't be understood except by those who do it themselves

Just my little weekly rant

[Naval @naval]

AI isn’t going away. Barring unprecedented global government coordination, it isn’t even slowing down.

The only real decision is whether to centralize power, or disperse it.

Do you fear the technology? Or a small number of people controlling the technology?

[Dave Portnoy @stoolpresidente]

Today marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11. It’s kind of amazing to me how enemies both at home and abroad have tried to rationalize this terrorist attack. It’s insane to me we have politicians nowadays who literally side with the terrorists. We must never forget the sacrifice that so many made and we must never stop supporting our heroes. The United States may not be perfect but it is still the best country in the world and its not particularly close. 9/11 serves as a reminder that we must continually fight for our freedoms and way of life that we take for granted.

I”m proud to have a very close relationship with @Tunnel2Towers which support all our countries heroes. We are selling Tunnel to Towers hats and tshirts and Im running in their 5k on the 27th in NYC. 100% of that proceeds will go to Tunnel to Towers and I’ll also match every dollar myself though the 27th. As always thank you for the support

https://t.co/XZNyo3x01q

[Dillon Loomis @DillonLoomis]

This story is fascinating and is easily one of the most important things happening at the intersection of AI and politics right now. It's critical everyone understands the situation because this is just the beginning of the AI infowars and psyops

Jacob Coxon, a relatively unknown AI researcher, gives the WSJ an exclusive story about his resignation from Anthropic and his concerns about AI

Twenty minutes after the WSJ story drops, Jacob posts on X about how he's concerned that AI could kill us all in a few years. This post now has over 149M views. For reference, Ilya Sutskever (a very well known AI name) left OpenAI in 2024 and his announcement post has fewer than 6M views as of today

Bear in mind, Jacob Coxon's X account had no prior posting activity public, but it is immediately reposted and boosted by numerous AI-doomer policy advocacy nonprofits funded by the same donor (Jaan Tallinn) who just happens to be one of the leading investors in Anthropic

We find out Jacob Coxon, who worked at Anthropic for only a few weeks, worked for a left-wing political advocacy group in 2021 (Newspeak). This organization is a British NGO with ties to hacking democracy, Hillary Clinton, prison abolition and extinction rebellion

Many major Democrat politicians are now using Jacob's X post to fear monger the public into voting to regulate AI. It just so happens Bernie Sanders has a bill already written to ban artificial superintelligence (ASI) and to create a new federal agency to protect the public from the dangers of AI. This bill was announced just one week ago on September 3rd

It would also place a temporary pause on "advanced AI" until a new federal regulator exists and has issued safety rules and a model-review process

Elon then points out how none of this feels organic, and Jacob decides to take a shot at him for firing some xAI researchers

Meanwhile, we know Anthropic has publicly asked the government to audit and block frontier models and Anthropic has run a state-by-state campaign for rules that only large AI labs trigger, meaning the rules are structured around barriers only frontier labs can easily clear (limiting competition)

There is extensive Anthropic personnel and financial overlap with the groups that wrote the Biden-era AI policies. It is well known information you can seek out if you want the detail

This all seemingly comes back to regulatory capture and political motives. None of this feels natural. Jacob can say these are his real views all he wants, and they may be, but there is clearly far more to the story

[Just Another Pod Guy @TMTLongShort]

Bribes are coming. Elon will lean in hard. Trump will go on a whirlwind tour of battleground counties. Tariffs will be directly tied to future rebate checks. Illegal immigrant welfare will be tied to blue state checks being withheld. Gas prices will be capped. Interest rates will go lower.

Republican sweep.

[Paola Boivin @PaolaBoivin]

Every year on or right before 9/11, we show this video to our students. It’s not only powerful story-telling, it’s a reminder to a younger generation about how life altering 9/11 was for those of us who lived it. It’s only 10 min #themanintheredbandana

[Jordan Schachtel @JordanSchachtel]

-Bluesky
-Vegan
-Effective Altruist
-Crashed out and resigned over Google trying to help the U.S. military

I don't trust any of these people and their nonsensical opinions on AI risk.

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Surely Anthropic’s IPO must be paused until the claims of this “whistleblower” can be investigated.

[Jordan Schachtel @JordanSchachtel]

So Jacob Coxon, who dramatically resigned from Anthropic yesterday, worked there for a grand total of six weeks. He started with them in July. All of his socials appeared yest.

It has all the signs of a highly coordinated op through doomer mega donors and the corporate media.

[@jason @Jason]

If Anthropic released the iPhone

[Bill Gurley @bgurley]

I have a recommendation to help bring some sanity to this whole AI doomerism situation that is appropriately exploding today.

If any reporter can get one of the "true believers" to sit for a real interview (if they can't, that is an important tell), they should use a technique known as the "Five Whys" https://t.co/RqKrn4TNLa.

The "five" number is arbitrary, but the point is to drill down into the details and steps required to get to the catastrophic end-point.

You can't take down all of humanity without a few intermediate steps. Let's talk through each of those. It's quite a useful exercise.

It would help us all think more clearly, and possibly the doomerists as well.

[@jason @Jason]

These pdoom posts are like Steve Jobs telling you that the iPhone was going to result in eating disorders, political unrest, mass depression, anxiety and suicide during the debut keynote — and you can buy them in one of four playful colors!

[Palmer Luckey @PalmerLuckey]

Investors like Paul want the immigration debate to be strictly polar because it is the only way their traitorous ideas might seem reasonable.

They paint one side as racist, backwards, economically illiterate absolutists and the other as enlightened, growth-minded cosmopolitian realists. Support for laws that protect American citizens can be dismissed as uneducated, anyone who hires immigrants or foreigners in any capacity a hypocrite.

American law should, and does, advantage American citizens. We should not have to compete on an even playing field with billions of people who almost universally don't share our values or respect our institutions, even if they are "the most qualified" or willing to work double the hours for the same wages. The men running Operation Paperclip did not think Americans should have to compete with the entire Third World, they understood that a carefully controlled amount of highly-skilled expert immigration is net good for America even when allegience is in question.

It is worth noting that even on a purely economic level, ignoring all burdens of loyalty or allegiance to your countrymen and treating America as nothing but an economic activity zone, it still doesn't make sense to say without qualification that foreigners should get any job where they are more qualified than their American counterpart.

As just one easy example out of dozens, about 20% of immigrants return home after less than five years, taking all their savings and vested shares with them. Another 20% will leave within ten years, doing the same. All the while, they will wire, on average, ~15% of their wages out of the United States economy every month. Some occupations and origins average 30%! The idea that this should be completely ignored with regard to employment and immigration policy is rampant among the same people who tell you with a straight face that limits on immigrants will destroy the American economy, that the dumb rednecks need to be saved.

I lean very libertarian and have strongly supported immigration to America for many years with countless public examples. That doesn't put me on the same side as the men who want to sell out America, and no amount of long-past accomplishment obliges any of us to listen to their lectures from the other side of the Atlantic.

[AF Post @AFpost]

Columbia County, Georgia, is nearing a deal with Google that would nearly double its $25M property tax revenues ($40M) allowing the county to end its residential property tax thanks to a massive data center.

Follow: @AFpost

[Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker]

Regret the tone of my post on data centers yesterday.

What I should have said:

There were reasonable concerns about data centers 18ish months ago: water, taxes, jobs, electricity prices, the environment and what they would do to small towns. Well-structured data center projects have largely addressed these concerns today and we should be celebrating this.

On balance, data centers are awesome for America in every way.

On water: U.S. data centers use a fraction of what golf courses use. A lot of the numbers from 18 months ago were off by over 1000x. Newer data centers use closed-loop systems or recycled water. Should be required by every town approving a data center project.

On taxes: looking only at sales-tax exemptions, as Ronan Farrow did, is the wrong way to evaluate this. Data centers pay significant property taxes. Loudoun County, which is the wealthiest county in America, now collects on the order of $1 billion a year from data centers. In Quincy, WA, data centers are more than half the property-tax roll. Over time, property taxes can go to zero while government spending increases in these towns.

On jobs: this has been unambiguously awesome for blue collar Americans. Demand for electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC techs, and contractors has gone vertical, and it is not a one-time construction job. These buildings get upgraded and expanded over time. That is why the building trades are fighting for them, and why some unions are now treating opposition to data centers as a reason not to endorse politicians.

On power: the original fear was that households would pay for the incremental electricity demand in the form of higher prices. That is why the ratepayer-protection deals and the new large-load tariffs exist. The right structure is: the data center brings or pays for new generation and signs a contract long enough that existing customers are protected. Where that is happening, utilities are cutting or freezing residential rates and saying so on the record. Where it is not, people are right to object. Electricity prices are going down *today* in a number of large states because of data centers.

On the environment: data centers overwhelming use natural gas today, which is the cleanest power source outside of nuclear, solar and wind. And the companies that are building the data centers are committed to carbon neutrality such that an equivalent amount of solar will likely be built. Maybe more importantly, the data centers need batteries to function effectively and these batteries can also sell energy back into the grid (which recently prevented blackouts in Texas). Over time, data centers will run on solar plus batteries.

On the towns: Poverty in Quincy, WA fell from 29% to 6%. Data center taxes paid for a new high school, a hospital, a library, police and fire stations. This is happening in many left for dead former mill and farm towns that had no other bidder for the land.

Data centers are actually reindustrializing parts of America and creating the kind of working-class jobs both parties have spent decades claiming to support. That should not be a partisan issue. Data centers can and should be awesome for America and they increasingly, overwhelmingly are. Supporting the outsourcing of data centers to China will likely age just as well as support for the outsourcing of high quality, blue collar manufacturing jobs to China has aged.

When the facts change, I change my mind. I hope that reasonable people who had good faith reasons to oppose data centers at least consider updating their beliefs given the change in the facts over the last 18 months. This really matters for America.

I will say I also think the idea of making data centers beautiful is a good one that has yet to be implemented. Data centers should be just as beautiful as Grand Central Station. We can learn a lot from the railroad buildout. Neoclassical revival ftw.

Might write up open-weight AI tomorrow as this is equally essential to America.

[@jason @Jason]

Who is this crackpot and why are people listening to him?

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

It’s amazing how negative the news is.

We’re creating the most advanced intelligence the world has ever known and it’s freely accessible so you can solve every day problems, we are curing cancer (even ugliness if you have a little money), and making space travel possible. You can live anywhere in the world and stay connected by phone or video. Literally instant communication. You can instantly translate any language. You can get technology that was unimaginable a few decades ago for a couple hundred bucks. You can listen to any music, video, or educational material with a click. Food is cheap and plentiful and you can even power an off grid home fully with just solar power. We have clean air and water. We even have advanced warning for many natural disasters.

[Brian Sullivan @SullyCNBC]

Don't tell anyone but longer dated US government bond yields haven't done squat in 3 years

Total move less than 1% over 36 months.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

People who are serious about trading build their own systems.