Rick

Dutchman living in London with his lovely family; as an econometrician fascinated by the power of data & analytics next to being a follower of politics

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics Fair enough, though I would argue that Covid didnt result in a trend change and we recovered; 2008 did and, painfully, did not have as much impact on the US which caused it. Would say it also not made life different, but that might be me or because I still lived in NL back then

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics All relative, I suppose, though I find a trend shock which changes our long term trend from outgrowing the EZ by more than 0.25% annually to being outgrown 0.6% annually quite significant and not minor...

What was your expectation if you call this minor?

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics Not what was discussed, but of course you can have other reasons. As long as you are happy with lower growth and consequences of that lower growth as a result then you are entitled to that opinion. I disagree and think it is short-sighted, but that is also just a mere opinion.

[Rick @Kyvric]

@OurJeeBee @Simon_Nixon @b_judah @nberpubs Sadly, that outperformance of growth, as @dsmitheconomics showed so eloquently, which we maintained between 1980 and 2016, seems to have vanished since. You can tell me a lot about policy changes, but none but brexit will have had such an impact in comparison to the EZ growth.

[Rick @Kyvric]

@OurJeeBee @Simon_Nixon @b_judah @nberpubs That said, despite potential policy changes (brexit being one of them), over a longer period of time you would still expect the UK, being a service-based economy, to grow relatively in line with the EZ or outperformed as it consistently did while in the EU.

[Rick @Kyvric]

@Simon_Nixon @b_judah @nberpubs Exactly, even the doppleganger's were assessed in multiple ways with diff weightings, plus of course their micro analysis pointing to 6%.

Another problem is misunderstanding of correlation; the US weighting doesnt neccesarily mean we should have grown at the same level

[Rick @Kyvric]

@toegrimes @julianHjessop @dsmitheconomics You are quite right; France its pre-vote growth correlates quite well (EZ slightly better from memory) with UK.

Germany correlates relatively poor and I do find it odd how Jessop dismisses many countries but keeps Germany all the time.

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics You can dispute all you want, but the data is what it is. We have performed poorly since the vote with the EZ having outperformed us by more than 5%, while in the EU we outgrew it consistently. What you can dispute are the reasons behind it of course.

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics Might all be true, fact is, and this is what we are discussing here: our relative growth was better during our period in the EU vs pre as post EU/EEC. And that will ultimately impact prosperity.

But, you clearly don't like to hear it.

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics Good question...maybe because nobody told them this or they plainly did not want to believe it

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics And if you take into account that we also were in a relative decline pre-joining the EEC, it's hard not to conclude the EU was actually good for our economic prosperity

[Rick @Kyvric]

@muffmasterh @dsmitheconomics Better than the UK now since the vote...

But yes, our period within the EU was highly successful from an economic growth point of view. We outgrew the EZ consistently by at least 0.3% annually; that has changed to a circa 0.6% underperformance annually

[Rick @Kyvric]

@stephen7502 @lowles_nick You could argue that the higher immigration since 2020 is due to brexit, but the change in immigration policy that resulted in higher non-EU immigration, was possible within the EU, hence pop. growth is considered to be constant and hence you fall back to real GDPpc

[Rick @Kyvric]

@stephen7502 @lowles_nick You are talking here about overall economic strength and you are correct that size matters; but when talking about the impact of brexit, unless higher pop. growth is due to brexit, the impact should be measured via real GDPpc. And, based on what you just wrote, you know this

[Rick @Kyvric]

@john4brexit What a shame for you that economic strength is measured through real GDPpc as @dsmitheconomics correctly shows.

Now try those numbers again...

[Rick @Kyvric]

@stephen7502 @lowles_nick Oh don't be silly, if you want to measure the growth in economic strength then the widely accepted way to measure that is via growth in real GDPpc. Saying otherwise is just economic illiterate

[Rick @Kyvric]

@FraserNelson Spot on and agree that Connely's sentence feels too high; I rather would have seen her being sentenced to do community service (preferably something with immigrants)

The guidelines and her pleeding guilty didnt allow for it and especially politicians should be honest about that