Nobody can predict the next move!
Not the indicator. Not the cycle theory. Not the guy who called the last one and hasn't shut up since.
What you can do:
• Have a thesis.
• Know what proves it wrong.
• Size so being wrong is annoying, not fatal.
That's not a strategy people want to hear. It's just the one that still works after years.
Everything's up despite the hike
$HYPE is the one actually getting paid by it
• ~$5b of USDC sits on @HyperliquidX.
• 90% of the yield on it buys back $HYPE.
• Higher rates = Bigger buybacks
First payout oct 3
$BTC reached 87k
This move was a short squeeze. Most of the shorts got liquidated on the way up and there's not much fuel left to keep it going.
Funding's neutral so it's not overheated. 90k next is possible, just unlikely imo. More likely it comes back down to grab the long liquidations.
• ~84k could be a quick wick
• ~80k is the main short term magnet
• and if 80k breaks, 75k is next.
Zoom out and there's a much bigger cluster sitting at 60-62k. That's the real worst case if 75k doesn't hold. Not my base case, but it's on the map.
So i'm buying just below 80k and 75k, keeping cash in case both fill.
Weekly close under 72k and i reassess.
What flips me bullish:
ETF inflows picking up and price holding above 85-86k with funding staying neutral. That's real spot buying, not leverage. If that happens, ~100k could be the next magnet.