Kairos Investment Research ♟️

Private investor. I cover a lot of Industrials, construction, global services. Value oriented. | Soli Deo Gloria

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

I don't follow $TVK.TO very closely, but looking at it now after the drop.

my question to those who follow it more closely is:

Is Charles Pellerin the thing which makes TVK what it is? is he so essential that his absence substantially changes the thesis?

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

$LOGC

He’s also director and a major owner of ContextLogic.

[Sahil Khetpal @skhetpal]

Abrams Capital is one of the most underrated and successful single managers.

David Abrams has compounded at ~15% a year from 1999 to 2014 and manages over $10B today, running what's close to a one-man shop.

Let's dive in!

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

Investors tend to allocate capital to the investment process that provides similar or better results at lower cost.

AI-driven investment strategies can provide similar or better results than many hedge funds at a substantially lower cost.

Guess what logically follows?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: A growing number of people reportedly say they trust AI to manage money & make investment decisions, threatening the wealth management industry.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

There are only two companies in North America that are capable of producing pharmaceutical grade evaporated salt that is used in life saving therapies such as Dialysis fluid and IV saline. I own one of them (U.S. Salt) via my stake in $LOGC , who acquired them earlier this year.

I'm eager to see what else they acquire, and how well they monetize their massive pile of NOL's now that they have an asset that produces meaningful taxable income.

Long at $7.64

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

am I the only person who is scared to connect IBKR to claude?

[Yellowbrick Investing @joinyellowbrick]

Added 69 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1):
@farrer36am (overviews) - $NORBT.OL, $GDS, $MNTS, $AVIO.MI, $1523.HK, $GLBE, $BKD, $0823.HK, $DKNG, $QXO
@BlokeOak57182 - $HGT.L
@PhilippHaas_ir - $NU
@StockcoachPB - $FVRR
@LDiscernment - $TIC (update)
@siyul - $FISV (update)

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

An excerpt from my $KWY article recently, detailing some intriguing capital allocation.

“Management preserved cash at a weak moment through an interest deferral agreement embedded the Trust Preferred securities (TruP’s). Then they sold a search portfolio asset at a 10x return, and immediately used some of the proceeds to buy options to retire the TRuP’s at a significant discount before the deferral window ended, all while accruing interests that counted against the repurchase price during the option period.

The real genius here is turning a position of weakness into a negotiating opportunity. “

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

Who are today’s Rales Brothers?

[Sidecar Investor @sidecarcap]

Early take (1988) on the Rales Brothers. $DHR

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

If you think $TIC will hit their 2029 performance targets ($3b + sales, 18% + EBITDA margin, 2.5x net leverage), it implies a share price of ~$26 or roughly 210% + upside from here. This assumes an EBITDA multiple of 12-14x, which is in line with consulting/TIC peers.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

@DeepSailCapital Perfectly bottom ticked.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

Bingo.

[John Huber @JohnHuber72]

@BrownMarubozu @cashflow_king94 100%. I'm really excited about the coming years. Passive + momentum is distorting prices in my view (and for stock pickers like us, I believe that's a good thing, not a bad thing)

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

The archetype of the “market wizard" provides a perfect cultural mask for an overinflated ego.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

Taking this run as an opportunity to cut some $AMPG

its low conviction/speculative for me, market providing ample liquidity.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

$TIC ‘s 2029 plan is ambitious considering its recent performance.

-11% revenue CAGR
~320 bps margin expansion
~400 bps expansion in FCF conversion

Should yield

~$540m adj EBITDA
~$450m Unlevered FCF

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

$AMPG continues to rip on big volume day after day.

[Paul, not a CFA @Investmentideen]

$ACP.WA Asseco Poland reports strong preliminary Q1 2026 results:

• Revenue +8.8% to PLN 4.40bn
• EBITDA +21.9% to PLN 695m
• Operating profit +32.9% to PLN 513m
• Net profit attributable to shareholders +67.6% to PLN 228m

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

$TIC finally introduces long term targets.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

I was probably a bit early on this one, but it appears $AMPG may be turning a corner as margins and cash conversion remain stable. They doubled their days payable outstanding (DPO), implying better supplier payment terms as they scale.

If this trajectory continues they will probably be cash flow positive over the next few quarters.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

Yesterday I sold the remainder of my $VST position as well as my $FND position, and put the cash into $AMPG at $3.74.

AmpliTech Group is a small industrial tech company (radio frequency amplifiers) that recently faced some headwinds due to one-time upfront costs, which are now largely in the rear view mirror. The companies financials appear to be at an inflection point.

-Revenue +115% YoY (Q3 FY25: $6.09M vs. $2.83M)
-Gross margin jumped from 7.8% to 48.6% QoQ
-Net loss reduced 84% YoY
-9-month revenue hit a record $20.7M
-Zero long-term debt and ~$14M working capital

The company also just cleared a key milestone
O-RAN Alliance certification for its 64T64R Massive MIMO radio.

Why this matters:
• Certification = permission to compete in real Open RAN deployments
• Product targets dense urban + enterprise 5G (Band n78)
• Removes a major blocker for LOI's converting to purchase orders

Average analyst target is 100% + from here (~$9+)

Guardian Research get's the credit for putting this back on my radar. I haven't read the full article because it's paywalled, but if anyone is interested, here it is.

https://t.co/uS7mcUcYjw

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

Part of the problem is determining which EBITDA figure to use, which im undecided on. However, using the formula management uses internally to track $KFS performance, I think they could do something like 25-30m+ in 2026 ebitda. with a 14x multiple, that gets you to ~$12 fair value in my estimation. so personally I would want to buy a bit lower, maybe in the $8.50-$10 range. I own some, but it's just to track the company. I personally don't like paying "compounder" multiples for companies that haven't proven that they are compounders yet.

[Kairos Investment Research ♟️ @LDiscernment]

Latest post on Kingsway $KFS. Man, this is an intriguing company, and I wish it was cheaper.

https://t.co/abb4T8tyPa

[Yellowbrick Investing @joinyellowbrick]

Added 80 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 3):
@UpslopeCapital (fund letter) - $SJ.TO, $LIFCO-B.ST, $KESKOB.HE, $JKHY
@eventuallyright - $OUST
@ragingbullcap - $PLBY
@BanyanLaneCap - $MRAAY
@__MattLindsay (watchlist) - $CSGP, $QBR-B.TO
@LDiscernment - $KFS (overview)