Håkon Løvestad Hunskår

mostly comments to myself about tankers and offshore rigs 🛢️

[Tommy Lee @TommyDeepwater]

Higher crude prices help oil major budgets, but none of the visible multiyear deepwater floater awards are at risk if SoH crisis slowly resolves, as these projects have been years in the making.

SoH hasn't directly affected deepwater, though 2028-2030 Brent futures up $5-10/bbl is positive to see as longer cycle barrels help replenish SPR's.

In late 2025/early 2026, Brent futures for 2028-2030 were in the $63 to $66/bbl range -- not great prices but today we're in the low-to-mid $70's which reduces risk of project slippage. Deepwater also supports the global LNG market, which has benefited from significant project outages.

(2) Shell announced the Merlin-1 light oil discovery in Namibia this week, reviving its outlook in the country. It's early but optimism exists on this discovery's potential. Interestingly, the Shell press release noted Merlin targeted a Coniacian-age play, a different age interval from the prior Venus (Total), Mopane (Galp) and Capricornus (Rhino/Azule) discoveries. This demonstrates how large and underexplored Namibia's deepwater remains, with many prospects still untested. There's YEARS of exploration remaining in Namibia.

Namibia is often compared to Guyana in terms of emerging oil producers from deepwater sources, and while it will be very difficult for Namibia to replicate Guyana's success of ~1.5 million bpd FPSO capacity and growing, Shell's Merlin discovery increases the likelihood of a development although still requires further appraisal and evaluation. Namibia has yet to have a project sanctioned, although should be coming soon with TotalEnergies' Venus.

(3) $NOL.OL Northern Ocean’s (picture) Deepsea Mira was the semisub drilling the Merlin-1 exploration well. Northern Ocean is a single rig company that trades on the Oslo Exchange with a ~$349mm enterprise value as of June 12, 2026.

Northern Ocean sold Deepsea Bollsta to Odfjell Drilling for $480mm in late 2025. NOL has since paid down $441mm of debt, representing a substantial improvement on the balance sheet although $100mm of a related party note remains.

Mira has been drilling exploration and appraisal (E&A) wells in Namibia in recent years. While Mira could potentially work in Norway in the future, it has mostly remained in southwest Africa doing shorter-term E&A work. Accordingly, the market has been and will remain competitive while awaiting Namibia's transition from exploration to development drilling with longer-term contracts—though that work likely won't begin until late 2027.

There's various E&A programs in the region Mira is capable of working, including the TotalEnergies/Galp 2-3 well PEL 83/Mopane campaign to begin in 2H26, but the big award to watch will be the potential TotalEnergies Venus tender for two rigs on multiyear terms for late 2027-early 2028.

There will be competing rigs for this tender, which will also include drillships. This region can be harsh environment during certain periods of the year, although drillships remain capable. It will be interesting to see if TotalEnergies chooses a capable harsh environment semisub like Mira for this work. Even if not, there will likely be other multiyear term work in the region but will require some patience.

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@TommyDeepwater @freakmaster222 Less steel in the spot market 👍

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Hot money exiting… shooting star 💫

[Helene Tveiten @HeleneTveit1]

Dette er en NRK-reportasjen fra 4. mars 2006

I denne ærlige sendingen viser NRK rett ut hva som allerede den gangen skjedde i Oslos nye drabantbyer, spesielt Groruddalen. @FilterNyheter kaller dette for en rasistisk konspirasjonsteori. Men tallene og fakta viser at @Klungtveit feil.

Ikke-vestlige innvandrere økte kraftig mens etniske nordmenn flyttet ut i stort antall. Dette bekrefter selve definisjonen av en utskiftning og påvirkning av demografien.

Skoler gikk fra norsk flertall til å ha bare noen få norske igjen på få år. Lokale innbyggere som familien Tangen fortalte åpent om støy, kulturkløft, store familier i små leiligheter og manglende forståelse for islam og de nye kulturtradisjonene.

Mor Siv ville ikke sende yngstesønnen på skolen der han ville vært én av bare to norske blant 38 elever. Storebror Joakim beskrev mobbing, dominansvold og fremmedgjøring etter gymtimene. Tidligere stortingsrepresentant Torbjørn Berntsen innrømmet at integreringen ble mye mer komplisert enn han hadde trodd. Nærmest til den grad at det var angrende.

Allerede i 2006 var det 18 prosent ikke-vestlige innvandrere i Oslo og over 30 prosent i Groruddalen. I dag, 20 år senere, er tallet i Oslo over 35 prosent innvandrere pluss norskfødte med innvandrerforeldre, over 50 prosent i mange bydeler.

I Groruddalen ligger innvandrerandelen nå på 39–70 prosent i flere områder og skoler, med flere skoler som har 80–95 prosent minoritetsbakgrunn.

Det vi ble advart om den gangen har ikke blitt bedre, det har blitt verre.

På den tiden var det i det minste lov å snakke åpent om realitetene uten å bli stemplet som rasist eller nazist. I dag blir sannheten møtt med sensur, kansellering og stempling. Jo mer innflytelse islam og ikke-vestlige kulturer får i våre områder, jo mindre plass blir det til vår egen norske kultur, tradisjoner og levesett.

Parallellsamfunn vokser, og den frie ytringen som gjorde denne reportasjen mulig i 2006, er i dag erstattet med frykt og taushet.

Del denne videoen videre! Se den selv, send den til venner og familie, og la den sette nytt lys på utviklingen vi ser i dag. Sannheten fra 2006 er enda mer relevant i 2026. Norge er verdt å kjempe for – før det er for sent. 🇳🇴🔥📈

#Groruddalen #WhiteFlight #NorgeFørst #FriYtring #Islamisering #DelVidere #NorgeVerDtÅKjempeFor

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Fuck around, and find out. My bet is on option B

[Ray Dalio @RayDalio]

The Two Different Paths: We are about to find out which path we are on.  As I said in my last note, from my conversations with a number of world leaders in a number of countries, and as seems obvious to me, there will either be a) a U.S. win over Iran, which will require taking control over the Strait of Hormuz and assuring that Iran's nuclear program is dead—i.e., defanging Iran, or b) a U.S. loss, which is the result if these things don't happen.

Most senior policy makers I speak with believe that we are likely headed down the b) path and that will be made clear soon. It needs to be made clear soon because continuing on the current path or being more forceful will cause sharp increases in oil and gasoline prices and great difficulties during the high travel season, bad political consequences for President Trump, and difficulties in his upcoming meeting with President Xi in China. So, we should have that verdict soon.

The perception that the b) path is most likely is already leading to a view that the United States will not be a reliable protector against possible opponents like Russia in Europe and/or China in Asia, and that is already leading to actions being taken that are sensible in light of that belief, like leaders paying "tribute" visits to China. As explained before, this set of circumstances is likely to have some analogous consequences to Great Britain losing the Suez Canal in 1956. By the way, this is also happening at a time when China is earning huge amounts of money through its very strong exports—so much money that it is difficult for those Chinese earning the money to know what to do with it. This is making China a very important player in world capital markets as well as world trade. In other words, these events are making China geopolitically and financially stronger.

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@lasse108 Cash, oil, gold, consumer healthcare and a big load of SOX leverage short positions

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Covid wasn’t deadly, this one is.

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Doubling down on this one, today.

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Hmmm… long energy, short tech 🧨

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@Peter_Lukacs_R Consumer healthcare… $hype3.SA

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@NoLimitGains Looks like Wolkswagen short squeez in 2008..

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@DeItaone Why would they?

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Discoveries tanking, demand relentless... This is oil's true bull case: they've fought wars over black gold for a century. 🛢️

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Weekends are for war…

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Conspiracy Theory: Operational Plan for Regime Change in Iran

USS Ford is anchoring at Israel Feb 27 for Rubio's visit Feb 28. Arrival with USS Lincoln approximately Mar 10.

PHASE 2 BEGINS: Stealth strikes in a moonless sky.
Days 1–5/7 (Mar 18–23/25): Intensive suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) + initial waves against high-priority targets.

Days 6–14 (Mar 24–April 1): Complete air superiority. Follow-on strikes on key buildings and repression enablers.
This includes: IRGC command centers, Basij facilities, communications nodes, fuel/logistics depots that support mass arrests/crackdowns, and missile-related sites. Air strikes finish as command and control structure is destroyed.

Total kinetic war duration: 10–18 days

PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS BEGIN:
Iran's leadership control over the population is temporarily suppressed.
Unlocked Starlink drops appear in the streets of Tehran. HIGH RISK of retaliatory cyber attacks.

This is followed closely by coordinated psychological operations by CIA & Mossad encouraging the Iranian people: "Now is your chance to take back your country."

Only 3.5% of population rebellion is enough to topple a nation. The Iranian people are encouraged to shut down their economy and protest in the streets through carefully orchestrated propaganda.

PHASE 3:
Protests are closely monitored. If the regime begins regaining control, extensive PHASE 3 strikes begin destroying more localized regime targets including oil export facilities. Cyber attacks are likely by this point.

This only ends in regime change.

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@ed_fin $CVX is good, but $HAL will do the upstream work…

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@AndersSjastad Santa ditched coal, crashed chasing Russian gas.. ho-Hoo🎅

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

Everyone is bearish at the bottom…

[Alexander Stahel 🌻 @BurggrabenH]

Brent $59. Rolling over, again. Contango back. 5 lower highs in 3 years. Supply glut, Saudi put gone, OPEC cheats, China ex-growth, India stalling, record oil on sea, Kremlin desperate to sell at any price. Yet X bulls cry “Market’s wrong.” Perhaps they just don’t get oil.

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

@lasse108 This should help 😉

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

It's all fun and games until oil breaks $67.
$WTI $OIL

[Håkon Løvestad Hunskår @LHunskar]

There’s a certain rig with 2023 Venus experience that could jump straight in. $NOL.OL

[Tommy Lee @TommyDeepwater]

While TotalEnergies has yet to FID Venus (Namibia), at its Strategy Day in September, TTE said it was receiving “interesting” service-sector offers for project

Now rumors (Arctic, ABG) of a potential 2-rig, multiyear Venus development tender for work starting soon as late ’27