LPFarmer

Prediction market expert, no bs, only facts.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

🚨BTC Long-Term Power Law Trend Line with RMSE Bands🚨

Bitcoin's price growth since 2009 follows a power law model, inspired by Giovanni Santostasi's 2024 writings. It describes network expansion with initial rapid surges tapering into sustained growth. The Power Law Trend Line fits a regression curve through historical $BTC prices on a logarithmic scale, acting as a fair value benchmark.

RMSE Bands add depth by quantifying average deviations (Root Mean Squared Error) from the trend, based on past data. These create adjustable channels, green above for overbought, red below for oversold using multipliers (e.g. 0.5 inner, 1.5 outer). Crossing outer bands signals major overvaluation or undervaluation.

This indicator exists in various forms, but we've built our own version with custom variants in Pine Script v6.
Soon we'll adapt it for $ETH with tweaks to fit, seems like we're the first to try this.

Historically: 2013 cycle hit the 4th upper band, 2017 the 3rd, 2021 the 2nd. So, per this model, we expect the 2025 cycle to reach the 1st upper band in the next few months at $208k, as shown on the chart.

In the following bear market, if we top the 1st upper band, anticipate hitting the 3rd lower band at $68k about a year later. This aligns with prior cycles bottoming around previous peaks, a recurring pattern.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@0xQuit ETH doesn’t need saving.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@CryptoTaxJme A level playing field? UK? Never…
They gonna keep it as it is. Or make the tax side of it easier.
Whenever the UK say they will make things easier for crypto users, they make it worse.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@AdinUpdate Always read the rules, otherwise you’ll lose money. In fact you can make a lot of money just by reading the rules and understanding them correctly.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@TechFrontier007 @BGatesIsaPyscho Bro stop getting ChatGPT to form your responses. Makes you look like an idiot, not a good look.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@monerify Can only be used with google or apple pay. So it’s KYC’d.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

Just another poly-post farmer spreading lies for clicks.

Polymarket uses an off-chain CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) not an on chain AMM of which you can do sandwich attacks. Transactions get settled offline via their centralised matching engine and only then settle on-chain.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@PamphletsY He aint no mobster.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@PMTraderAdam @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Risking almost 2k for $40 is almost never worth it. It just takes 1 time to be wrong and it’s all gone.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@ScalerSohom My thesis has changed ever so slightly due to the fact that we didn’t hit the 200k band. We are likely going towards 50-60k region aka the band bellow my lowest band which we hit in 2015. I didn’t include it in this chart.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

🚨BTC Long-Term Power Law Trend Line with RMSE Bands🚨

Bitcoin's price growth since 2009 follows a power law model, inspired by Giovanni Santostasi's 2024 writings. It describes network expansion with initial rapid surges tapering into sustained growth. The Power Law Trend Line fits a regression curve through historical $BTC prices on a logarithmic scale, acting as a fair value benchmark.

RMSE Bands add depth by quantifying average deviations (Root Mean Squared Error) from the trend, based on past data. These create adjustable channels, green above for overbought, red below for oversold using multipliers (e.g. 0.5 inner, 1.5 outer). Crossing outer bands signals major overvaluation or undervaluation.

This indicator exists in various forms, but we've built our own version with custom variants in Pine Script v6.
Soon we'll adapt it for $ETH with tweaks to fit, seems like we're the first to try this.

Historically: 2013 cycle hit the 4th upper band, 2017 the 3rd, 2021 the 2nd. So, per this model, we expect the 2025 cycle to reach the 1st upper band in the next few months at $208k, as shown on the chart.

In the following bear market, if we top the 1st upper band, anticipate hitting the 3rd lower band at $68k about a year later. This aligns with prior cycles bottoming around previous peaks, a recurring pattern.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@aaalexhl You just need to find another edge from another angle. My bot is printing $5,000 a day roughly and it doesn’t care about latency, only 15min markets for now. Not tested yet for 5min markets.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@notsoeasymoney My bot is superior I’ve hardcoded:

if bot.value <= 0:
dont ()
else:
while True:
print(“still printing!🚀”)

Can’t go to 0.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@MEPPonPM @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Same amount I lost roughly, but it was my bot which went rogue. New bot so far with paper trades is making $5,000 a day. Need more time to iron it out but in a few weeks it should be live.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@EnsXbt @0x_pr1me @Polymarket Ser that’s called gambling, not investing.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@rinneXBT Bro leave this garbage in the bin, it’s not profitable.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@stacy_muur Fun fact:
Liquidity says nooooooo

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@lynk0x Yh but no. Liquidity will not allow it. Also prices are generally favourableto one direction before the market even starts making prices sit at 55c/45c.

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@Tradermayne Hmmm liquidity says noooo 🥲

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@Cointelegraph Uk selects Chinese bank, what a joke 🤣

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@theUMreal Abandon brics 🤣

[LPFarmer @LPFarmerNo1]

@marlowxbt You chat shit.