Bazin Diego

AI x Prediction Markets

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Well well well…. 😅 Lamine where are you my friend

[Edge Point @EdgePointX]

PSG left that game at 20% to win the Champions League on Kalshi, up from 15% a day ago.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Anyone has the price movement distribution of losing a first set? A break in the final set ? #stats #tennis #predictionmarkets

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Prediction markets are incredible at real-time price discovery, but structural inefficiencies like favorite-longshot bias and thin order books on niche contracts still linger. #PredictionMarkets #MarketMicrostructure #QuantitativeTrading #FinTech #kalshi #defi

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

#kalshi #predictionmarkets

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

So it s basically following legacy from our ancestors when trading on the Giants for $100 🚀

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Tools change
from sheep bones to order books
but our drive to price the future remains unchanged 💥

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Today, we don't just wager on sports; we bet on elections, policy, and global events. Some call it the ultimate crowd-sourced truth engine
A shift from regulated control toward a raw, decentralized road to liberty.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Their late-night arguments literally invented the modern study of probability. We have gamblers to thank for math class.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

As time went on, gambling got surprisingly sophisticated.
By the 1600s, two French mathematicians named Pascal and Fermat got pulled into a dispute by a nobleman wanting to figure out how to fairly split stakes when a dice game got interrupted.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Thousands of years ago, that exact rush of adrenaline helped our ancestors take risks, explore unknown lands, and hunt dangerous prey. Modern betting just hijacks that very ancient survival mechanism.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

So, why do we love the gamble so much?

Blame evolution. 🧠
Neuroscientists have found that our brains release dopamine not just when we win, but right in the anticipation of winning.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Back then, rolling bones wasn't just fun, people genuinely believed the outcome was decided by the gods. Talk about putting your faith in higher powers….

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Long before cards or coins, ancient people used what they had lying around.
Archaeologists regularly dig up dice carved from the anklebones of sheep and goats (called astragali) dating back over 5,000 years in Mesopotamia and Egypt.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

We tend to think of betting as a modern obsession.
Flashy apps, neon lights, and Sunday football parlays.
But humans have literally always been risk-takers. Our ancestors were gambling long before we even invented writing by throwing sheep bones 😅

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

The future has a price

[Edge Point @EdgePointX]

Monday.

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Elections on prediction markets, FRANCE S TURN ! #truth #nobias

[Darius Rochebin @DariusRochebin]

En l’état les marchés prédictifs donnent @MLP_officiel favorite, @EPhilippe_LH en second.

Les chiffres agrégés par @ThierryBreton sur l’industrie des parieurs, en grande part américaine, à ce moment M (si lointain de l’élection, mais intéressant à observer, autant que les sondages - les parieurs jouent leur propre argent…)

[Edge Point @EdgePointX]

🚨 FRANCE FROM 13% AFTER TRAILING 🚨

Kalshi had France at 65% at kickoff. Belgium scored first and France traded as low as 13%.

Then Doué, Cherki, and Olise (twice). France win 4-1.

13% → 99%

$11.0M traded on @Kalshi.

[Riva Sciuto @Riva1213]

Prediction markets are fundamentally and structurally different than sportsbooks. "While with gambling you’re yet again expected to lose by design, prediction markets are designed to reward the most knowledgeable participant," says @johntamny in @Forbes: https://t.co/0VZXbwWkei

[Bazin Diego @La_Dieg]

Curious about how well it works for all different types of markets ! Has anyone tried with prediction markets ?!

[Roan @RohOnChain]

Jev is the FASTEST AI model ever built for trading

It makes calibrated buy/sell decisions in under 100 ms

That is one real decision on every single block, 24/7

In this article I've shown EXACTLY how to build HFT trading system with Jev (from scratch) https://t.co/4hmZDzN00Z

[Edge Point @EdgePointX]

🏈 LIVE NFL MARKET MOVEMENTS

Two major repricings over the last 72 hours:

Eagles @ Bears · Sept. 28

Philadelphia: 44.5¢ → 68¢ (+23.5pp)
Chicago: 55.5¢ → 32¢ (-23.5pp)

The market has completely flipped, from Chicago favored → Philadelphia favored.

Seahawks @ Commanders · Sept. 27

Seattle: 56.5¢ → 75¢ (+18.5pp)

Seattle has moved from a slight favorite to 75¢.

Two of the biggest NFL moves on the board over the last 72h. 🚨