@Lee_Trades Agree! It’s those LTA I like and the forward visibility on supply and demand. It allows the incumbents to plan and scale knowing it’s underpinned by FCF from operations rather than crazy scaling into demand destruction.
@TradexWhisperer Transitioning to LTA’s with customers that share their medium to long term supply needs….almost like you can forecast revs, profits, supply, production, etc into the future to ensure consistent and balanced margins….but it’s just cyclical I guess 😂😂
@Lee_Trades Interesting to see what happens when the old LTA's expire and how they price the new ones going forward. Capex read through looks ok from Google and assuming MSFT etc maintain / increase then I think memory has a few more years of high returns before AI buildout slows?
@InvestiBrew what are the time lags for new supply to market and is there a quality difference between suppliers? what about the LTA in place? Is there a bigger ecosystem to this and nuances between suppliers, capex, construction, tariffs, import/export bans? welcome your thoughts on it
@Lee_Trades I am still watching the levels on this one. Feels like it has a bit more room to to run down and I am balancing this against MU as I really like both. You probably right to scale in but I like to go heavy once reversal confirmed.
@Lee_Trades look at where META is buying its compute from and the capex committed to date.... should be a while before they get any excess to sell? I know a few other big names already offering a service model for hardware..https://t.co/MLiLkSZnob
@aleabitoreddit Feels more like a market that hasn’t seen the bigger picture yet and can’t comprehend the step change taking place. Look at $MU as one example….folk still saying cyclical etc etc when they got loads of LTA in place. The chess board is getting rearranged and they got to adjust!
@antibearthesis its a beautiful place and people are lovely and prices super reasonable too (was there 5 years ago on family holiday). be sure to visit Trogir if you can and the small islands around there as that was very nice too!
@TradexWhisperer How much more evidence does the market need to see FCF profile is ballooning. whilst there will always be peaks and troughs the multi-year contracts flatten the line. I am being greedy waiting for lower levels to add more but anything around $1k to $1.1k surely doubles this year?
@Lee_Trades it's the microgrid that should excite folk - decentralised power....maybe tokenised in the future...could open up secondary economies for fuels etc too...hydrogen, methane reformation and so much more?
@smartertrader Analysts forecasting $1200 to $1750 on $MU with earnings tomorrow….if earnings are 25 or more and market sets PE at just 15 you get $1500 with a multi year memory market in demand then I would like to think this is a bump in the road….