Larry Vogel

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@sydneyswans I got on early cos I need aisle seats for our two kids on the spectrum. I know they aren't guaranteed, so I got on EARLY. Thanks to this I'm back at the back of the queue with near 20K ahead of me and GWS fans are busy taking the pick of the seats. There goes our chance to attend

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@tegmark Perhaps a better test would be to have a list of 1000 tasks drawn up which regular humans can perform (which the labs agree not to tune for) and select 100 randomly. If a single AI can perform them all at the level of an average human we're probably there.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@MarioNawfal Jeez guys, I do AI Safety for a living, I don't need to hear the same old, I have to go to my job soon and do this all day. Let's hear about the merger please

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@Ben_Domensino What happened over North Shore, it went from a compact storm into the whole area being covered. Supercell developing?

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@jisseforecasts @NSWHealth Lower +ve rate in Delta. When testing the lab puts the samples of many individuals together. If the whole batch is -ve, all are -ve. If batch is +ve, they test individually each member. Only works when few are +ve. Labs are throttling back incoming tests to stop overload.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@FairDinkumOK @JayStill4 @RonniSalt Good grief.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@nichaeloz @JulianAndrew63 @MSMWatchdog2013 In depth analysis based on criteria for her cousins'

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@nichaeloz @JulianAndrew63 @MSMWatchdog2013 One minute she had precise questions on DG's ICAC summons, the next she didn't notice him suggesting encrypted comms. One minute she had detail on budgetary processes, the next no idea on how decisions might be made. One minute she had no real thoughts on CoI, the next an...

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@tippietoes22 @ann_meharg @PCKJ3627 @2three2 @farrm51 So.... no women in positions of power in case they are "compromised"?
Rubbish. She is an adult in full control of her decisions. We need to stop the "but my hormones" defence for women AND men.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@edwin_latham Oh please. The victims are the poor sods that are on the receiving end of statements like "I can't stand that guy. His head will be gone soon."

Plenty of post hoc ergo propter hoc here.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@Emma_Rose013 Sadly a good quarter of relationships I know have that sort of discourse. It's why I hate social stuff with other couples. You either get the braggart guy with "the little lady" or the snarky woman humiliating her husband.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@Elijah_reddoor @chelsea_hetho She's the reason you had months of lockdowns and the country is a few $ B poorer. Telling people to go out to events when delta was spreading, ridiculous. Months of sacrifice, mask wearing & travel restrictions tossed in the bin so some ticketed events can go ahead. Madness

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@El_Bastardo1892 @tom_watkins_ @ms_dzt @TMFScottP @GladysB That's a lesson worth very much worth learning at an early age.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@Reasonableques3 @LandoRocks @NjbBari3 @NSWHealth @GladysB @BradHazzard TTIQ at current numbers has little effect. Even prio close contacts are getting contacted 3+ days after infection. Without lockdown anyone of those will infect others. Lockdown masks underperformance of TTIQ.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@Reasonableques3 @LandoRocks @NjbBari3 @NSWHealth @GladysB @BradHazzard No, not a pure guess. I'm looking at the CDC R0, the effect of vaccination for the 50% covered at that time, and estimating the adherence. It's complicated by the major unvaxed population being in schools and then in the home (which will reduce transmission reduction efficacy)

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@Reasonableques3 @LandoRocks @NjbBari3 @NSWHealth @GladysB @BradHazzard I would hazard that the Re at reopen would be around 4.0 (given schools open, etc). Surge capacity for ICU is 2000 beds (physical, not staffed). Highly likely they will be full within 4 weeks of opening.

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@Reasonableques3 @LandoRocks @NjbBari3 @NSWHealth @GladysB @BradHazzard Hospitals are struggling at the moment, it's pretty likely they will get worse, which will mean a fair few people with covid or other serious illness will die. Hard to estimate numbers. At opening around 50% will be covered by vax. Herd immunity comes in at 85%+

[Larry Vogel @LarryIdea]

@peterepeat5 @Moonlightsiesta @Jrs51315532 @NSWHealth Headline number drop is being driven by SW/W Syd where there is massive focus on TTIQ. The rest of Syd is heading up happily despite drops in testing there due to locations not being communicated. Two different effects, need to track them separately: SW/W and rest Syd graphs