Lasagna Capital

former vol guy

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@Alan_Couzens 4:05-4:12 70.3 pancake incoming in December. You heard it here first…

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

I have no great explanation for how the same headline has had a functionally similar market reaction for over 2 months. There was a window where the marginal tweet had less of a $SPX impact but now at a loss. Where are the flows being conjured for this?

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@_The_Prophet__ @CoffeeBlackMD Put another way, I don’t think this is the crowd that sacrificed it all for a chance at life changing economics. I think the calculus was always, upper middle class-wealthy (on the margin / with luck) outcome in exchange for a job that wasn’t very stimulating but provided balance

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@_The_Prophet__ @CoffeeBlackMD I disagree that tech workers compromised on youth or lifestyle (or geography, I know many who do WFH exclusively), these factors pulled a lot of folks in from finance / consulting / other more life-consuming jobs for a much easier life at similar comp

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

I am sympathetic, but this is the (writ large) overpaid and underworked product / software crowd that never actually derived much meaning from their jobs... maximising lifestyle per tolerable unit time of labour. Do stuff you love people

[Deedy @deedydas]

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen.

Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation).

Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there.

Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI.

As a result,
1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb.
Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more.

2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future).
Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire"

3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed.
Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies.

4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either.
No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money."

I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here.

Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success".

Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

for there to be a material upside case from here, I think you have to argue that peak sales in AtD are >$1.5B
nemo is $4B expected. AA P3 could work, could not... EV/peak sales multiples are a bull mkt metric, gotta keep in mind could see sector correction before P3 readout in '28

[Corey Quinn @QuinnyPig]

"AI code is crap."

The shit your human engineers get up to:

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

Leverage under 3x
$RIG

[Armin Hartl @Armin_Hartl]

$RIG announced great Q1 results with 1.1bn in revenue (+10 y-o-y) and 25m net income.

FCF was 136m, an improvement of 170m vs. Q1 2025, but a 185m reduction vs. Q4 2025.

The company retired 358m of Deepwater Titan Notes, accelerating deleveraging.

$VAL

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

Inasmuch as people feel smug dunking on Warren here for blocking the merger (I also disagreed), I don’t understand the lack of acknowledgement of the historic jet fuel disruption that’s played a role? Even $UAL warned that total fuel costs could exceed their best yr in *topline*

[High Yield Harry @HighyieldHarry]

Do you think Elizabeth Warren has a shred of guilt here or do we think politics are so corrosive that she thinks she’s always in the right

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

"OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn’t grow fast enough"

this could be a problem for the AI bubble

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@StanphylCap Maybe US inventory oil draws wake people up

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@toiletkingcap Do a triathlon with me

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@toiletkingcap Stop being soft

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@toiletkingcap I’ve seen your LinkedIn photo and disagree

[Tommy Lee @TommyDeepwater]

$SDRL 7G Drillships West Neptune and West Vela add 635 days of work combined at $409k dayrate in US Gulf with Harbour/LLOG 🇺🇸

Harbour acquired LLOG in December and is adding a second rig, Vela, currently contracted to Talos through July 2026. Positive to see Harbour add a rig

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

Would be funny if it turned out this type of waffling is deliberately meant to mirror the absolute fog / lies of trump’s comms about the war

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

IRAN PRIVATELY SIGNALLED YESTERDAY IT WOULD ATTEND, BUT TODAY INDICATED IT WOULD NOT, ACCORDING TO AXIOS CITING A SOURCE.

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

@TraderPamplona Israel already sending missiles not 2 hours after the ceasefire

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

Chinese proverb say, too many tacos gives tremendous diarrhea

@toiletkingcap
@TraderPamplona

[Lasagna Capital @Lasagna_cap]

This is a circus

[Patrick De Haan @GasBuddyGuy]

Trump once again declaring a “ceasefire” that Iran supposedly agreed to should be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism.

This has become a pattern: set a deadline, apply maximum pressure, declare progress- and then watch as Iran largely ignores it. The administration’s approach leans heavily on brute-force, strongarm tactics, but Iran has very little incentive to play along on those terms.

From Iran's perspective, time is on their side. They can continue to sow chaos indirectly- through threats and attacks in the Strait, proxies, regional pressure, and strategic ambiguity- without ever fully engaging on U.S. timelines. Meanwhile, each new deadline from Washington risks looking less credible when it passes without meaningful change.

At some point, you have to ask whether repeating the same playbook is actually strategy, or just inertia. If the goal is a durable outcome, relying on pressure alone- without offering a framework Iran sees as worth accepting- may simply prolong the cycle rather than break it.