Existential Beagle

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@electionsjoe He’s going to lose comfortably

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@bdquinn Iran is a marginal issue. This is almost certainly response bias

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@electionsjoe Talarico will lose by 5

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@GervaiseRich @electionsjoe He was hilariously off in 2020 and 2022 and that was when he was pushing GOP-favorable numbers

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@chriswithans Lib ET chortles this stuff every cycle

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@ZFlawles1s Response bias.

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@IRLoadingScreen @USA_Polling Theory: most voters aren’t actually that responsive to gas price changes (see 2022) and this is just overwhelming response bias.

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@TonerousHyus Clearly the work of a political party feeling like it has a 7-10 point generic ballot cushion in a wave year

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@nikicaga Let me zoom in… oh wait… what’s this

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@OpenSourceZone This is all very online

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@OpenSourceZone I keep saying it, but no one actually gives a shit about the Iran war. Half the voting* population has no clue it’s even going on or have no opinion on it

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@electionsjoe @gyc Dude this data center stuff is basically repackaged retardo 5G conspiracism. Do you really want this in your political movement?

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@electionsjoe In a D+11 national environment, the Dems wouldn’t be freaking out about candidate quality and switching out shaky candidates. Internal polls are obviously showing a much closer setup

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@bdquinn * in October

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@HamptonPrezcott @Lepera_Joe Dems are campaign like it’s a D+3 environment and playing desperate switcheroo with candidates so their internals are obviously not screaming D+11 or whatever Fox and Emerson managed to squeeze out of the absurd samples they collected

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@HamptonPrezcott @Lepera_Joe I see we’re at the “D+9 shitty response bias polling in GA means Dem forever reich incoming” stage of the election cycle

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@suburbanwinebro Sure, until you look and see they scrounged together an “independent” voter sample that votes D+10 in Dem primaries

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@CannaDawg Publix is a basic grocery store on par with Kroger that charges 30% more for everything. Wegmans is far superior for produce and meat and costs less. Even Whole Foods is often a better deal on produce

[Existential Beagle @LaschianMailbox]

@ReubenR80027912 D+4 is marginal to even flip the house for them