Lawn Chair Capital

29 | Current PE Operator
ex-LMM PE | ex-IB | ex-Athlete
$1M ➡️ $2M
“Don’t fold like a lawn chair”

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

1/ $IQE FY25 results overview after reading. I'm long 1M+ shares and added on today's red. Biased, but I read the RNS, the deck and sat through the call. Cleanest the story has looked in years. Thread. 🧵

$IQE $IQEPF #IQE $SIVE $LITE $AAOI $NBIS

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@FeroceResearch Are you saying you’re long on $MU ? Know you’re shorter term bearish but unsure what you’re saying

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

Reminder not to sell on market wide red days…use common sense

$SPY $QQQ $DRAM $MU $AAOI $IQE $AVGO $LITE $SIVE

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

I'm buying today's dips in all my AI names like $SNDK, $AAOI, $NBIS etc.

Nothing's changed with AI related stocks.

But for context on why today's a deep red day:

-> Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172k jobs in May Vs. 85k consensus.

-> So overall less layoffs in the economy = tightening labour market.

-> Tight labor market = zero urgency for the Fed to cut rates.

-> plus energy inflation from Hormuz standoff = Fed can't cut anyway.

Then ofc yields spiked on the jobs data release.

And when yields rise, the longest duration assets in the market reprice first

That's AI:

w/ AI names like $MU, $NVDA, $LITE etc:

Pretty much all of the value sits in future earnings / cash flows.

so...higher discount rate, lower present value = downward re-rating.

Just keep in mind that nothing fundamental w/ the AI trade has changed at all.

Like, $AVGO even confirmed a few days ago that supply is secured through 2027 to support next yrs rev forecasts.

And we all know hyperscalers like $GOOGL are funding AI capex aggressively rn. Which is the whole crux of the supercycle.

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

Zig when they zag folks

$SPY $QQQ

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The US economy adds 172,000 jobs in May, crushing expectations of 85,000.

The unemployment rate was 4.3%, in-line with expectations of 4.3%.

April's jobs number was also revised UP by +64,000 jobs.

This marks the second strongest US jobs report in 13 months.

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@thoughts867 Patience sir

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@R_and_Invest Agreed, may have some discomfort near term, but this one’s for the long haul

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@saxena_puru Got more juice in these guys for the rest of summer

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@lkcttn @DraupnirAlpha @unfadv @mkfilko Do we know they’re at capacity, understand it’s commonly assumed, but any datapoints? That would be the icing on the cake for me for this thesis

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@R_and_Invest Yup, makes sense - long $DRAM

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@mkfilko @DraupnirAlpha Check out post earnings read through thread here

https://t.co/8Y3aXkCmZo

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

1/ $IQE FY25 results overview after reading. I'm long 1M+ shares and added on today's red. Biased, but I read the RNS, the deck and sat through the call. Cleanest the story has looked in years. Thread. 🧵

$IQE $IQEPF #IQE $SIVE $LITE $AAOI $NBIS

[Draupnir @DraupnirAlpha]

Here's a new take on a popular name that I haven't seen touched on AT ALL on X so far.

First, some background:

$IQE / $IQEPF is a compound semiconductor wafer supplier. £448M market cap.

$IQE makes advanced epitaxial wafers. The foundational material that makes semiconductors function at extreme frequencies and precision.
Without IQE's wafers, the chips powering modern defense, photonics and AI infrastructure don't exist.

Here's what nobody is connecting.
$IQE is embedded inside every major U.S. defense prime. Let me emphasize this again.
$IQE is a SOLE (not SINGLE) SOURCE vendor to all the Prime Aerospace and Defense companies in the United States. They CANNOT use LandMark as it is a supply chain risk.

🔹 RAYTHEON ($RTX)
15+ year direct partnership. Greensboro NC facility officially qualified for IR photodetector epiwafers powering advanced ISR systems.
Multiple Premier Supplier Excellence and EPIC awards.
Embedded. Qualified. Awarded. Not transactional.

🔹 BAE SYSTEMS
GOLD TIER supplier to BAE Electronic Systems. The highest classification BAE awards.
BAE builds defense, aerospace and security technology directly for the U.S. DoD.
One of the most demanding qualification processes in defense. IQE passed it at the top level.

🔹 LOCKHEED + NORTHROP
IQE's InP and GaAs wafers flow into Lockheed and Northrop platforms via $MACOM and Qorvo - integrated into RF and photonic systems inside the most advanced U.S. defense platforms in existence.
Every major U.S. defense prime. One supplier.

Indium Phosphide is not a commodity.
It's a controlled, high-precision material. There are almost no qualified alternative suppliers at IQE's level.
Qualification cycles take years.
The moat is structural.

The U.S. government knows this.
The InP executive order was about defense supply chain security, protecting allied-nation suppliers of critical compound semiconductors.
IQE's Welsh and U.S. fabs sit squarely inside that framework.
Explicit government policy support for IQE's core business.

$MACOM didn't just sign LTAs with IQE.
They invested £45M directly - a 10% market cap injection from a company that needs IQE's InP supply to exist.
Supply chain insurance dressed as equity.
Debt repaid. Capex funded. Capacity redirecting to high-margin photonics.

🔹 $LITE (Lumentum) - flagship customer, LTA locked in.
Lumentum is critical to the NVIDIA optical interconnect buildout.
NVIDIA's photonics push flows through Lumentum. Lumentum's supply chain flows through IQE.
Direct line from IQE wafers to the most important AI infrastructure buildout on the planet.

The smart money noticed.
🔹 Point72 - Form 8.3 under UK Takeover Code. Steve Cohen's fund disclosed.
🔹 Artisan Partners — 12.99%. Multi-year conviction.
🔹 Lombard Odier — 200-year-old Swiss private bank.
🔹 T. Rowe Price — long duration institutional money.

The Point72 Form 8.3 matters.
Filed under Rule 8.3 of the UK Takeover Code — required during offer periods or takeover speculation.
Point72 isn't just holding. They're disclosing under takeover rules.
Someone knows something.

The full picture:
→ Every major U.S. defense prime. One supplier.
→ InP executive order protection
→ $MACOM £45M strategic anchor
→ $LITE LTA
→ Point72. Artisan. Lombard Odier. T. Rowe.
→ £448M market cap
This doesn't trade here once the market figures it out.

The catalyst is Thursday.
$IQE FY2025 results May 28.
Defense positioning. MACOM investment. Photonics ramp. All formally presented post-fundraise for the first time.
Thursday is the moment.
$IQE $RTX $MACOM $LITE $MTSI

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@mkfilko @mouou74541 Love that you’re so bullish $IQE, only validates the thesis that much more imo. 🤝

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@mkfilko Let’s get some news and fly!

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@otigart @DeepValueBagger @TradexWhisperer So you’re buying $MU here?

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@FeroceResearch What are your key areas to focus away from memory?

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

You need to be more bullish on $SNDK, $MU, SK hynix & Samsung...

Semiconductor Market Forecast (WSTS):

-> 2026: $1.5 trillion (+90% YoY) - due to memory demand
-> 2027: $1.9 trillion (+27% YoY) - mainly memory-driven again

-> Memory forecast:
2026: $800B (+250% YoY)
2027: $1.1 trillion (+32% YoY)

I don't see a viable situation rn where memory slows down.

Huge demand + supply shortage = pricing power = rocket fuel.

-> Also in 2027:

Optoelectronics: accelerating 5% growth to $46.4B (vs. 2.7% fcst in 2026).

Includes some of your favourite photonics names like $LITE / $COHR / $AAOI / $SIVE at chip level.

And $IQE / $AXTI at substrate level.

Always good to see other data sources + forecasts to backup overall bullishness.

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@SixSigmaCapital Get pissed when Morningstar is the only name with reports on a company. Bucketshop shit, will take the opposite of their opinion

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

@NBA_NewYork Looks like they said something about his hairy shoulders #knicksin4

[Lawn Chair Capital @LawnChairCap]

The strength here today is noted for $IQE

$IQE $AAOI $LITE $SIVE $TSEM

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

Still bullish $IQE btw:

£81M fundraising is now complete + all fundraising shares were admitted on 1 June.

So 332M new shares, taking share count: 980M -> 1,312M.

Around 80% of that is strategic/insider: $MTSI (152M shares) + noteholders (115M shares).

That leaves just 65M new shares as flowback material (~5% of enlarged capital).

So imo any declines are probably profit-taking - everyone in the raise sits on ~2.4x the 19.8p issue price.

especially since short interest is effectively 0.

Regardless, I don't think it matters too much in the long-term.

$MTSI investment de-risks balance sheet significantly + gives IQE a cornerstone customer/partner.

From earnings last week:

CEO: "Accelerating demand for our InP solutions supporting data centre and AI markets is expected to be a material growth driver throughout 2026 and beyond"

So a very clear inflection point coming up.

Just important to remember that at some point, most companies need to raise fresh capital to fuel growth.

Even $GOOGL are doing it rn to fund their AI expansions.