Ben Lawrence

Markets. Geopolitics. Plumbing. I source everything, check the timestamps, and show the work. Substack ↓

[Yardeni Research @yardeni]

Ed Yardeni on the Fed meeting: The bond market is signaling that the central bank needs to stay more vigilant on inflation.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

🌅 Morning Macro Brief July 31, 2026

• Amazon rose 13% on a chips beat, Apple fell 9% on soft China
• Brent $88, WTI $85, 10Y 4.73%, DXY 100.4, BTC $63K
• Liquidity Distinction: Nasdaq rose 1.3% as BTC fell nearly 3%. One bid, not the whole risk complex

#macro #markets

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

Two venues now hold 77.8 percent of tracked perp open interest, a series high climbing four reports straight: 73.1, 73.7, 77.2, 77.8. Hyperliquid alone is 58.6 percent. Concentration is not a routing choice. If either venue breaks, the market has fewer places left to go.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

Microsoft and Meta guided 2026 AI capex to the same $130 to $145 billion. Microsoft rose about 15 percent, Meta fell about 10 percent. Same number, opposite tape. The market stopped pricing the AI story. It is pricing which one can turn the spend into cash flow it can sell.

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

Hearing unverified reports of partial bitcoin wallet thefts that correspond to odd on-chain fund movements. Root cause is unclear at this time. Please check your wallet balance and report back if you notice any loss of funds - more information is needed to aid the investigation!

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

@DavidAFrench Court no, individual justices.....

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

🌅 Morning Macro Brief July 30, 2026

• Fed held 9 to 3, three presidents dissented for a hike, not a cut
• 10Y 4.70%, DXY 101.2, BTC $64K, ETH $1,920
• Doctrine vs Plumbing: the Fed held, the bond market tightened for it. Nasdaq now 10% off its high

#macro #markets

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Tariffs were pitched as the fix for America’s trade deficit.

Instead…
Last 18 Months: –$1.80 trillion deficit in Goods.
18 Months Prior: –$1.74 trillion deficit in Goods.

The deficit didn’t shrink. It increased 4%.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

🌅 Morning Macro Brief July 29, 2026

• US and Iran resumed strikes. Oil bounced 4%, paring a 16% slide over three sessions
• Brent $88, WTI $82, 10Y 4.62%, BTC $64K, ETH $1,910
• F.I.R.E. Chain: the disinflation the oil slide handed the Fed is now unwinding

#macro #markets

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

On Ethereum two numbers point opposite ways. Aave borrows hit a fourth straight record, $8.18B to $8.83B across four reports, while the chain's stablecoin base net drained. Productive layer growing, settlement layer shrinking. TVL up 13 percent is a price mark hiding both.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

Fed decides at 2 pm ET. Odds of a hike today went from 1 in 10 to 1 in 3 in two weeks. This is a live meeting, not a priced hold. Warsh guides less and there is no dot plot, so the signal is the dissent count, not the adjectives. Watch who votes to hike.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

🌅 Morning Macro Brief July 28, 2026

• Iran and Oman opened Hormuz talks. Oil, yields, and crypto all lower
• Brent $88, WTI $83, 10Y 4.62%, BTC $63K, ETH $1,878
• Selective Passage: tape prices the chokepoint as open. Risk premium unwinding, not war ending

#macro #markets

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

Stablecoin flow this window: Ethereum -$496M, still below the $149B re-arm line. Solana held above the $16B floor. Base's leak paused. Hyperliquid nudged up. Price led on ETH and SOL. Every DEX tape contracted. The plumbing is not where the tape is.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

FOMC Wednesday. Sep hike odds jumped past 80 percent in a week. A credibility-first Fed does not need to hike; the market did the work. A hold reads as stealth tightening. The signal is in Warsh's presser and what stays in the statement.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

🌅 Morning Macro Brief July 27, 2026

• Houthis hit Aramco refineries Saturday. Brent down 8% this morning
• Brent $90, WTI $84, 10Y 4.64%, BTC $65K, ETH $1,963
• War Scorecard: the tape closed the war before the war did. Pause outweighed the refinery hit

#macro #markets

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

It looked like a rotation. Ethereum shed a billion in stablecoins the week Solana added $1.28B. The per-asset data says two events, not one. Ethereum was a USDT redemption. Solana was a USDC mint. Two issuers, two days. Chain totals invite a story the asset data refuses to back.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

The Fed meets Wednesday and the hold is not the story. In a week a September hike went from a coin flip to the base case. The trigger was an oil spike already reversing. Energy moved rates before it moved inflation. That is the chain, running in order.

[Steve Rattner @SteveRattner]

I previously reported that the growth rate and composition of Trump's wealth gain in office are unprecedented in recent history.

Upon request, here is the data on the relative size of Trump's presidential windfall. The extent of his self-enrichment is even more striking.

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

🌅 Morning Macro Brief July 24, 2026

• Section 301 tariffs landed overnight: 10 to 12.5% on 99.4% of US imports
• Brent $98, WTI $88, 10Y 4.68%, BTC $65K
• Passive Funds Mirage: capex outran cash flow. Mag 7 shed $797B in a day. The flywheel spins both ways

#macro #markets

[Ben Lawrence @LawrenceMacro]

Ethereum is running two capital stories at once. Aave v3 deposits marched $10.69B, $11.00B, $11.41B across three reports, two records in a row. The stablecoin base shed $1.06B over the same span. Sticky collateral compounding inside a churning settlement stock. Watch the spread.