Citron is Short $SNDK — They Don't Ring a Bell at the Top
We don't need Anthropic to announce they're making NAND. Samsung is already the 800-pound gorilla, and they've been running this playbook for 30 years.
While TV pundits pound the table herding retail into cattle cars, Western Digital, the long time investor, sold a significant portion of its holdings days ago, 25% lower.
Ask yourself why. Because they know the cycle is approaching a peak, and they're not waiting for the bell.
The market is pricing SanDisk like it's $NVDA. There's one problem: NVIDIA has a moat. SanDisk sells a commodity.
We've seen this movie before 2008, 2012, 2018. It's never different this time. Memory is a cycle, and cycles peak.
Samsung has a 30-year history of choosing market share over margins. They wait for pure-plays like SanDisk to get comfortable at 50% gross margins, then flip the switch. But this time it's worse. Every $SNDK bull should read attached article Samsung just told the world they won't sell anything under 50% margins and they're moving their best chips into the same premium SSD market SanDisk calls home. They're not just the capacity gorilla anymore. They're going after SanDisk's best customers with cheaper, newer technology. And the only thing keeping supply tight right now? Samsung's temporary yield problems in another product line.
That bottleneck has an expiration date.
With double the capacity of the 2018 peak waiting in the wings, this "shortage" is a supply mirage that can vanish in a single earnings call.
Hockey shout-out: Shorting $SNDK is skating to where the puck is going. By the time the cycle normalizes, this stock will already be much lower. https://t.co/2BYMxB2ekI
@0xBADB01E@0xcarlisle Yeah, I think he’s correct.
That was my immediate reaction on reading your post thread yesterday:
This tracks almost perfectly with what $QCOM announced a month or two ago…
@heyitscaseymae I see your pole on the edge of this photo.
If you need one more in your life I >Would< take my chances with your grip 🥰
By the way, your swimsuit fits perfectly, in my opinion. 🔥
@DeanTTraining@RoyDaRappah Facts. Potatoes are elite nutrition.
It’s why everybody was so trim 50 years ago. They ate fucking potatoes every day & not fucking french fries.
If they did eat french fries, they were fried in beef tallow. Win - win.
@TradexWhisperer The barrier to entry for a CPU is a TSM reservation.
The barrier to entry for memory, is $50 billion, IP, and three years lead time, minimum. 🤔
@smartertrader These people are so stupid. They think making current generation DRAM, let alone HBM, is the equivalent of making moonshine in the garage.
There’s a reason why memory has been consolidating. It’s a hard business, with huge capex, and multi year lead times.
@SoskaKyle Sorry your take is so retarded and idiotically wrong that I have to mute you. I can’t have shit like this polluting my timeline.
How can anyone possibly be this stupid?