Tamunoemi

VC Apprentice

[FFmpeg @FFmpeg]

FFmpeg plays basically every proprietary video format ever created because of reverse engineered video codecs.

Now the same game is happening for still images. It will end the same way.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Let’s take AI predictions from blog posts, podcasts and tweets and move them to betting markets, our state of the art in truth.

My struggle has been coming up with good, concrete, resolvable predicates. Ideally, predicates related to industry metrics and macroeconomics. Eg naively one might think GDP but I’m not super sure that works great (eg see “productivity paradox”). I also think evals are not amazing predicates because we see over and over that they are incomplete and hackable.