暴躁的黃豆

一个抽象且神经的大格调肌霸

[少女审判 @1lkcii9]

https://t.co/4GWAWlxtDM

[人间落叶🍂 @WannakaLeaf]

【野生小散成为职业交易员的路径和方法-中】没资源/资金/背景，想靠交易实现阶级跃迁；需要依次解决哪些问题？
这个专题拆成【上中下】三集放送；
本专题不涉及任何技术分析指标或者战法，也不涉及任何无脑操作的系统；
如果不打算靠交易阶级跃迁的别看； 因为没有这种决心，很难在万念俱灰的日子里撑过来；
打算靠交易只是赚小钱的别看； 因为这条路径到最后赚的都是大钱；不符合你的期待；

[Ringo @RingoDontpanic]

https://t.co/x6XCGp89WL

[Smartpig @Smartpigai]

卧槽，居然有人在 GitHub 上做了一个美股崩盘风险监测仪！

它把：

巴菲特指标
席勒市盈率（CAPE）
美债收益率曲线
200日均线乖离
恐慌与贪婪指数

全部塞进一个模型，最后算出一个 Crash Risk Score（崩盘风险分数）。

目前支持 VOO 和 QQQ。

当然，它不可能精准预测哪天崩盘，但拿来当一个美股风险仪表盘，真的很有意思。

https://t.co/rtoPKCRN8t

做美股的建议收藏。

[Roan @RohOnChain]

GPT-6 Astra builds the most powerful trading agents

i wrote a 6-page research paper on exactly how to find profitable strategies 24/7 with Astra, along with the COMPLETE CODEBASE

here is how you set it up:

1. the 4 mispricing categories every hedge fund actually hunts (statistical arbitrage, volatility surface, factor decomposition, insider clusters) with the exact formulas for each

2. the 8 bot architecture that maps to every function of a real fund, one bot per role, with maker checker separation so nothing grades its own output

3. the 300 agent monitoring layer that watches order books, options flow, SEC filings, macro releases, and central bank X accounts in parallel

4. the hypothesis generator that reads filtered candidates and codes new strategies every night in Python, backtests them, and throws out anything below Sharpe 1.5

5. the exact validation thresholds every strategy has to pass before deployment. Sharpe above 1.5, drawdown below 15%, hit rate above 55%, t stat above 2.0

6. the Telegram alerts that ping your phone with instrument, strategy, confidence score, Sharpe, drawdown, action window, and Kelly sized position

this is the exact system I have been running for the past 3 days:

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

😊

[Lord William｜UK @LordWilliamUK]

比特币熊市结束了吗？还有最后一跌吗？10年有效的MVRV指标告诉你

参考下图，2014年以来，3轮大熊市有效的指标MVRV Z-Score指标显示， $BTC 可能还有最后一跌，才能见周期大底。

MVRV Z-Score 通过标准化市场价值和已实现价值之间的差额，来评估比特币相对于其公允价值是被高估还是低估。

当市场价值显著高于已实现价值时，通常表明市场已见顶（红色区域）；当市场价值显著低于已实现价值时，则通常表明市场已见底（绿色区域）。

另外，UNPL、AVIV等指标也显示，目前还没到周期大底。

最理想的走势，在今年第四季度， $BTC 走出最后一浪下跌，在55K左右见底，开启新一轮牛市。

但最后一浪，需要事件和宏观驱动，2022年的最后一浪下跌是FTX交易所挤兑破产引发的恐慌抛售导致的。

有没有指标显示，大底已经到了？ 如果没有最后一浪，怎么操作？

下一个帖子，我分析下。

Has the Bitcoin bear market ended? Or is there still one final leg down? A 10-year-proven MVRV indicator has the answer.

As shown in the chart below, the MVRV Z-Score—an indicator that has successfully identified bottoms across the last three major bear markets since 2014—suggests that $BTC may still have one final decline before reaching its cycle low.

The MVRV Z-Score measures how far Bitcoin's market value deviates from its realized value, normalized by historical volatility, to determine whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its fair value.

When the market value is significantly above the realized value, it has historically signaled cycle tops (the red zone).
When the market value is significantly below the realized value, it has historically marked cycle bottoms (the green zone).

Other on-chain indicators, including NUPL and AVIV, also suggest that the market has not yet reached a major cycle bottom.

My ideal scenario is for $BTC to complete one final wave lower in the fourth quarter of this year, bottoming around $55K, before launching the next major bull market.

However, that final leg down would likely require a macro or market catalyst. In 2022, the last capitulation wave was triggered by the panic selling that followed the FTX collapse.

But what if the bottom is already in?

Are there indicators suggesting the cycle low has already been established? And if there is no final selloff, how should we position ourselves?

I'll break that down in my next post.

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

@kirakira_diaa 好大的实力

[Imran Lakha | Options Insight @options_insight]

Most gamma tools sell you a GEX-by-strike number. I basically ignore it, and here's why.

Dollar gamma on a single strike is a moving target. It changes based on how close spot is to that strike, so the number explodes as you approach it and collapses as you drift away. Read it through the day and it's just reacting to price, and that lack of stability is hard to trade around.

What I actually look at is the net position size at each strike, in contracts. That's more stable intraday. It only changes when someone genuinely trades that strike, adds or closes. And I look at the net of calls and puts together, because once a market maker delta-hedges, a call and a put on the same strike are the same thing to them. It's all just gamma.

So a strike with 878 puts short and 282 calls long is a net 596 short, and that's the number that matters.

Then for the big question, is the street long or short gamma overall, I only trust the total aggregate. Per-strike GEX on just 0DTE can't answer that.

I prefer stable position data over a GEX number that noisy and distorted by spot swings.

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

@siterlee @neotrade123 感謝您的回復

[Jason @3PeaksTrading]

VVIX + VIX Term Structure - The Ultimate Volatility Trading System

🧵 Combining VVIX levels with VIX term structure creates a 3-dimensional view of volatility

This system has 75%+ win rate on volatility trades

Here's the complete framework and how I use VVIX in addition to VIX analysis to evaluate what volatility regime the market is in👇

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

@siterlee @neotrade123 順哥的群組裡面，您這裡7月12日之後就停止更新了

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

@siterlee 詩詩老師，這個是您新建的DC群組嘛

[DiscusFish @bitfish]

再加一条: 窃天之智，为我所用

[美研芒格君 @Kay2289123]

https://t.co/IPFgvD81sv

[火山哥🕊️ @huoshan007]

兄弟们今天给大家免费分享一个斯坦福这课。

直接把 Claude 和 ChatGPT 的内部工作原理，拆开讲了 1 小时 30 分钟，而且是免费的。

很多人天天用 AI，其实连 10% 都没榨出来。

不是模型不行，是你根本不知道它脑子里怎么转的。

这种课建议直接收藏。

你少刷一小时短剧，把这 1 多小时啃完，明天醒来可能就多了一门能赚钱的路径。

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

@KathleenRi5558 确实压抑😂

[0xkevin (🖤 , 💙) @0xKevin00]

康宁用玻璃解决了AI算力的最后一厘米

难怪川沐重仓康宁 $GLW ，玻璃桥这个技术除了康宁还没有其他人能做

原来的光纤虽快，但光信号插进芯片一直又贵又慢又容易出错。康宁的玻璃桥在特种玻璃里预先刻好光通道，把穿针引线变成插插头，AI数据中心的光互联才能真正大规模落地

光模块重大更新，一条视频给你讲清楚👇

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

@kandaidaiqiao 好完美的腰线

[暴躁的黃豆 @Lee70525981900]

@yu_jin91444 身材真好🥹