This is a great lesson.
Our generation has to choose from an extremely volatile & geopolitical +25% vs. and extremely smooth +7% sitting in bonds or SPX (that barely is enough to stay ahead of the monetary dilution and cost of living).
The smooth +7% is incredible for boomers with a lot of capital assets and no childcare costs.
For the rest of us, the less risk you take, the more you are like a turkey the day before Thanksgiving.
You have to remember that the fiscal impulse will always be at your back because we need nominal growth to pay the debts on the govt balance sheet-that is bipartisan from here on out.
Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore the downside is very little with an asymmetric payout if there is a crisis. I am very long.