Super Sayn

I have the shinigami eyes, I see things before it goes to the moon 🚀🌖, nickname ASTRONAUT

[Super Sayn @Leviatit]

Is AI a bubble? Kind of. The tech is real, but the money’s running faster than the profits.
NVIDIA’s cashing in on GPUs. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon keep reinvesting in massive data centers. OpenAI and Anthropic make billions in revenue but still lose money.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE looks like both a chokepoint and a bottleneck for CPO next year.

Keep seeing information published from nontechnical people who miss any nuances.

Here’s the reason why:

1. CW lasers are bottlenecked signaled by $LITE earnings.

Laser fabs are heavily allocated to EML likely from former $NVDA contracts.

-> Sumitomo/Furukawa = bottleneck
-> Win Semi = bottleneck

$SIVE does fab-lite, so are they a bottleneck?

Yes, $SIVE sits in the laser bottleneck since control output supply of CW lasers from Win Semi and other fabs from allocation way early on (CEO stated they working with more capacity from other players as well).

Perfect example is Kioxia/Sandisk. $SNDK controls NAND output, so they’re a bottleneck because they control final pricing.

Demand exceeding supply from Ayar, Jabil, other pluggable vendors + Nvidia NVLink CPO ecosystem… final laser supply owned by $SIVE makes Sivers a bottleneck.

$SIVE is also likely primary/sole source for Jabil, Gen-1 Ayar, $MRVL Celestial, and other hyperscaler asic/merchant CPO routes. So no way to get around it (can’t hot-swap single channel cw lasers with Sivers)

2. $SIVE is a chokepoint over CPO.

$NVDA use $COHR, $LITE (which likely sources external cw capacity from Japanese competitors)

$AVGO is likely vertically integrated as well.

However: the entire ecosystem around it from ASIC programs (Marvell, AlChip, etc) and merchant programs (Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence)

Are all likely designed around $SIVE.

Ayar for example, likely tried to multi-source with $MTSI / $LITE back in 2022 but their lasers probably couldn’t match the level of Sivers specification with arrays (removed Lumentum / Macom from their supply chain site recently)

If there’s no alternative at least for the initial generations (obviously they’re working to multi-source). That makes $SIVE a structural chokepoint to go through for lasers.

Even if you look at the 1.6T LRO $JBL designed, they achieved a “drastic moat” with performance built around $SIVE likely sole source.

$SIVE is also the foundry level reference laser design for $GFS, which your hyperscalers use like $AMD (likely using Sivers + maybe Ayar for gen1):

If every major player, who hasn’t achieved vertical integration (Nvidia/Broadcom) is using Sivers for CPO…

That makes them a chokepoint.

Just look at the entire CPO $NVDA NVLink ecosystem partners: every single one are all likely using Sivers. And they all use $GFS as well (where Sivers is default reference).

So $SIVE is both a chokepoint and bottleneck when CPO really scales up H2 2027, over one of the biggest architectural shifts of all time (near $0 -> $81B or $91B TAM in the next 1 1/2 years from GS research note)

This is why I say $SIVE looks like it could be the next $75B $LITE over the next couple years.

All of this should play out next year.

And it’s still trading less than a company with $50M in purchase agreements that buys Sivers lasers to repackage them.

[Sivers-Semiconductors @SiversSemicond]

We're excited to announce a strategic collaboration with @GlobalFoundries to develop advanced silicon photonics solutions for the rapidly growing AI infrastructure market.

Our laser arrays will support next-generation optical connectivity architectures, including CPO, LPO, and other emerging data center interconnect solutions, while complementing GlobalFoundries' silicon photonics platform and SCALE™ optical engine offerings targeting a projected $25 billion pluggable optics market by 2030.

For full details, visit: https://t.co/rDAFqiG85m

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me.

Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share.

I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B.

And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects.

I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive.

As in the part few months we’ve discovered:

> AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in

> Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up

> $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce)

> O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE

> $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes

> New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE

> $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source)

> information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices

> information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers.

> Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators.

> new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium

> $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers

> Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source

> Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc)

> pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report

> Nasdaq listing expected soon

> MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers

> M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area

> $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report.

> $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector.

All of this market research was done before earnings.

Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done.

I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward.

Only thing I’m looking at are:

> TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments

> volume ramp expectations from existing companies

> Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts

> any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is literally the kingmaker for CPO:

From ~ Lightmatter, Celestial, Ayar, Lightelligence early on. Now the leaders with massive $5-10B+ valuations.

To the ASIC ecosystems like Marvell, Alchip, GUC.

With O-Net mass producing ELS with Sivers for CPO.

And Jabil mass producing pluggables with Sivers for pluggable optical transceivers.

All likely surround and are designed around Sivers lasers.

Markets are only starting to see the precipice of how important this laser company is.

[Super Sayn @Leviatit]

RT @aleabitoreddit: Just in: $SIVE gets $6.6M from the US CHIPS ACT.

This is a $6.6M Year 2 Program to "Modernizing U.S. Defense Infrastru…

[ItsSmacky @Chaamacoo]

There’s a lot to digest from the last week with $SIVE.

The $JBL 1.6T collaboration, together with the confirmed CW laser shortage and partnerships with O-Net and Enablence Technologies, feels like a decisive step forward.

In the Annual Report from May 13, $SIVE directly addresses “discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers” that point to a structural shortage of CW lasers. This is happening at exactly the right time, AI training and inference clusters are pushing explosive demand for higher bandwidth, lower power and denser interconnects.

What really stands out to me is how the dots are connecting. $JBL, key partner to $AMZN, $MSFT and $GOOGL has chosen $SIVE’s high-performance InP DFB lasers for 1.6T pluggable modules. At the same time, Amazon’s recent private placement with AIChip (Ayar Labs’ lead customer) signals major design wins ahead. And $SIVE is the sole supplier of the critical laser arrays to Ayar Labs.

The same pattern keeps repeating. O-Net Technologies (with strong North American and Asian hyperscaler ties) and Enablence are developing ELS modules with $SIVE lasers for CPO. POET Technologies $POET just secured a $50 million initial order from Lumilens. Everywhere the big players are moving, $SIVE seems to be part of the picture.

On the manufacturing side, the WIN Semiconductors partnership together with the own Glasgow fab gives $SIVE real independence and scalable capacity (30k–35k wafers/year) in a very tight InP market.

All of this is coming together right now. Pluggables give near-term volume, while CPO offers the big efficiency jump ahead. The photonics TAM is exploding from $14B to $154B in just two years and $SIVE is positioned right in the middle of it.

With this level of validation across the value chain, I believe we are likely to see more partnerships and firm purchase orders soon.

For $SIVE, this feels like a real inflection point. The company is transitioning from deep-tech innovator to a strategically critical, independent supplier in the optical backbone of next-generation AI. The hyperscalers keep choosing $SIVE for a reason. Execution is there, the connections are deepening, and this momentum feels increasingly unstoppable.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE is now aiming to become the next $LITE, a US photonics giant.

They're re-centering their board around US executives + US photonics.

So the core board are now: US $GFS Executives and $CITI Executives, with the company run by UC Berkeley grads and $LITE executives.

The 3 members leaving were local Swedish/EU.

This is just a shift in strategy from focusing on developing local Swedish Semi environments:

To dominating the US/global photonics market. I'm not trying to discredit their service/background.

But in my view to focus around US/global photonics markets, it's likely optimal to have more US executives.

But they should all be proud for helping make $SIVE what it is today.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just to add to the very positive $SIVE news amid MSCI likely tens of millions of inflow in 2 weeks:

$AMZN has a new private placement with AlChip.

Probably implying design wins with future Trainium.

If you don’t remember… AlChip was Ayar’s lead customer. And $SIVE is the primary laser supplier to Ayar.

So implications for $SIVE, is enormous piggybacking off of Amazon’s ecosystem growth.

[Mikael Wåhlin @Plaskpojken]

Sivers just dropped their annual report for 2025, I'll dig into it and make another post later but here's a quick one..

$SIVE and $NOK? 👀

I've thought so for long and now I'm sure... Don't think there is another one possible in Finland?

[𝑱𝒐𝒆 @JoeTrader01]

$SIVE / $SIVEF is a $100 stock trading at $5 today.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think many people are surprised to learn that stocks don’t move in a straight line up.

Today:

Laser companies from $LITE to $SIVE to $AAOI are down -8.0%, 10.2%, and -4.38%.

Taiwan limit down -10% on CPO names like MSSCorps, Shunsin, and adjacent like Win Semi.

$AXTI and $SOI are down -7% and -10.2%.

After $LITE reported earnings.

Pretty sure markets missed the heavy nuance that this was extremely bullish for CPO names like $SIVEF or Shunsin from the earnings transcript, but algos sold off everything optical.

This is still the very beginning of the entire CPO supercycle curve.

Before any volume ramp.

[Zephyr @zephyr_z9]

Lightelligence is developing a CPO solution for Biren
And if u believe in optical computing, then it's the best pure play available on the public markets anywhere

[₿itcoin ₿utcher 🥩 🐑 🐷 @bitcoinbutcher1]

$IREN

[Mikael Wåhlin @Plaskpojken]

The Space/SATCOM sector is heating up rapidly, and there are two massive plays unfolding right now: The Prime ( $YSS ) and the Pick-and-Shovel ( $SIVE / $SIVEF). 🚨

Yesterday, US defense prime York Space Systems announced the acquisition of @allspaceltd. Here is why you need to pay attention to both sides of this defense and space tech ecosystem.

🛰️ The Prime: York Space Systems ($YSS)
$YSS is emerging as an incredibly strong investment case on its own. Building on their recent IPO, they are aggressively consolidating the market—this is already their second strategic acquisition since going public. By acquiring ALLSPACE, York is securing next-gen, software-defined multi-orbit terminals (LEO/MEO/GEO). They aren't just building satellites; they are constructing a complete, resilient communications ecosystem for the US military and commercial sectors. If you want a fast-growing defense/space prime, $YSS needs to be on your radar.
⛏️ The Pick-and-Shovel: Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE)
While companies like $YSS and ALLSPACE build the physical terminals, how do these flat-panel, multi-orbit antennas actually track satellites moving at thousands of miles per hour? They require highly advanced mmWave RFICs and beamforming chips inside the hardware.

Who is a premier pure-play foundry and designer for these exact SATCOM chips? Sivers Semiconductors.

The broader market is currently so hyper-focused on the $SIVE AI/Photonics supercycle that they are completely ignoring the fact that their Wireless/SATCOM division is sitting right in the crosshairs of this massive space M&A wave.

Smart money watches both the aggressive consolidators ($YSS) and the critical component suppliers fueling the tech ($SIVE). I'm long both, research and make your own decision ⏳🔥

$SIVE $SIVEF $YSS #SpaceEconomy #SATCOM #Defense #DeepTech

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

As for 3x brrrs these levels:

1. $SIVE
2. MSSCORP (6830)
3. Auros (322310)

Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process:

1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR.

At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping:

Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET.

For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems.

Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches).

This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing.

They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding.

2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B.

100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers.

"The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market"

This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust. If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B

3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology.

Basically pure play on two products:
-> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology.
---> Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding.
-> Thin-film thickness measurement.
---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year.

They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year.

Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market?

Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping.

But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

“1.6T optical modules are near mass adoption this year”

So nothing new but this just confirms timelines for volume production/mass adoption H2 2026.

$AVGO and $MRVL are cited as main beneficiaries in the report but names like $AAOI are probably the most profound beneficiaries (largest 1.6T capacity US projected) for the pure play exposure.

$JBL also set to go brrrr but my guess is H1 2027 with wave2 architectures since their LRO architectures remove the DSP (with $INTC SiPH acquisition IP).

Jabil would be a good contrarian long in the broader 1.6T supercycle coming up if this gets broader adoption from $META validation but benefits anyway.

And especially $SIVE that powers Jabil 1.6T LRO, that when they scale, it scales laser demand too.

I think everyone focuses on the upstream supply chains nowadays but going long on Broadcom and Marvell doesn’t hurt too.

[Super Sayn @Leviatit]

@MisterMCAP Well POET ceo messed up he said something public which he shouldn’t have.

[Lil’ Mafia | ♟️🌵 🌮 @AvivArazi]

@danroberts0101 dan this is the article you forgot to add

on LINKEDIN WE SAW THE MISTAKE, MAYBE X NEEDS MORE COMPUTE

https://t.co/t2TVgKcREU

[Super Sayn @Leviatit]

@Umbisam

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

What a crazy timeline?

Today, $AMD announced it's pushing into CPO and collaborating with $GFS.

This is highly bullish for $SIVE since for CPO/SiPH, it requires external laser light source.

And... guess who are the two public laser suppliers in the GlobalFoundries CPO ecosystem?

$SIVE (~$935m) and $LITE (~$64 billion)

Sivers lasers feel like they could be everywhere now in upcoming hyperscaler CPO/1.6T deployments.

So... if Sivers secures the spot to provide the laser arrays for the $AMD Instinct MI500's CPO solution in 2027.

(Which seems highly possible given there’s only three laser names listed + hyperscalers like to multi-source)

This might represent massive, high volume production for Sivers that markets haven't pricing in.