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[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I'll let this revenue projection graph I made for $AAOI do the talking. Price at $70 I find genuinely riduclous if they deliver on their projections.

Rate hikes/macro trims a lot of forward valuations. But the selloff way overshot, which I'd argue is amplified by hedge fund risk/forced deleveraging before month end reporting.

Rather than something individually wrong with the company.

[Bill Brooklyn @BillBrooklyn10]

I’m 60 years old and retired from JPMorgan. My monthly income is $105,000.
Unwritten rule for the stock market:
1. If the price drops 10%, just hold.
2. If the price drops 20%, add 10%.
3. If the price drops 30%, add 20%.
4. If the price drops 40%, add 30%.
5. If the price drops 50%, add 50%.
6. If the price rises 10%, just hold.
7. If the price rises 20%, still hold.
8. If the price rises 30%, sell 10%.
9. If the price rises 40%, sell 20%.
10. If the price rises 50%, sell 30%.
11. If the price rises 60%, sell 40%.
12. If the price rises 100%, sell everything.
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[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just this hour:

BlueCrest Capital Management and its Billionaire Michael Platt crossed the threshold and disclosed a 5.6% stake in $CCXI.

I knew Agility Robotics would be popular…

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Agility Robotics is literally the #1 humanoid player in the US in terms of commercialization today imo.

Personal Rankings:

1. Agility Robotics via $CCXI
2. $TSLA Optimus ($1T+ company)
3. Figure at $39B from 2025, likely higher now.

With Tesla likely taking the lead a year from now. So at $16, you have a ~$4B MC pre-money humanoid player.

Which is already inside $AMZN and $MELI (ideal use cases to start out, before step-functioning to general-use), with $AMZN, $NVDA, Softbank, Foxconn, and others as investors.

NFA, but at those valuations... there's direct exposure for the first ever humanoid player today, that's likely further ahead than Figure for commercialization.

No hard feelings about Robostrategy, but it's over 4x+ NAV:

Which would value Figure at $156B...

While there's the #1 commercialized humanoid player with Agility at $4B today.

So my personal preference is $CCXI.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Just dropping these 3 slides from Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) presentations.

For the US robotic program doomposters:

1. “75% of parts” - sourced from the USA

2. Just eyeballing the graph, looks like <$30k BOM mass production.

People were just looking at the ~$145K cost.

3. 10,000 RoboFab capacity, and they build in Salem/Pittsburgh/Fremont (USA).

So looks like majority US supply chains with targets of <$30K mass production

It does help they’re backed by $AMZN / SoftBank / Foxconn / $NVDA as investors to get this done.

Just personal thoughts as a shareholder in $CCXI (NFA):

My personal biggest fear were US humanoid leaders like $TSLA were just building out their entire supply chains in China.

So US robotics could just be export controlled/halted down the road.

eg. South China Morning Post: ‘Optimus chain’: Chinese suppliers form the backbone of Tesla’s humanoid robot initiative and engaged with hundreds of Chinese component suppliers.

And that Western companies are not able to lower costs to a competitive level + are forced to use Chinese components.

I'm still not sure how they're going to do it but if Agility can achieve those mass production targets with that BOM cost in the USA/West.

It would be a great validation for Made in America US robotics programs.

IMO the top 5 US humanoid programs right now in terms of commercialization potential are:

1. Tesla Optimus
2. Figure
3. Agility Robotics
4. Boston Dynamics (yeah KR parent)
5. Apptronik

Tesla is a $1T+ company. Figure is private and valued around ~$39B. Owning Boston Dynamics through Hyundai is a bit messy.

And I’d prefer not to invest in adversarial programs just as a personal preference.

So I’ve been personally excited for Agility to be listed as early as September.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

For robotics companies, I have a favorable view on Unitree and Agility Robotics, two humanoid players.

And I have largest concentration in Agility Robotics, since I personally prefer US humanoid players.

For upstream component exposure, I currently own:

- Harmonic Drive (6324) given high content BOM on things like harmonic reduction gear.
- Vishay Precision for sensors and a possible candidate for Telsa Optimus.

LeaderDrive (688017) and Schaeffler I have favorable views on but don't own personally.

Many of the other AI DC players, I have indirect exposure to robotics like memory.

Don't recommend anyone to copy, just sharing personal positions/thoughts.

Humanoid sector is large, and as seen with Goldman Sachs report that "Korean companies will command a 30% direct and indirect share of global humanoid robot production".

Lot of players out there globally. This was an older report but just linking it again since you see all of them pop up in GS institutional reports + what they cover.

Agility Robotics is my personal favorite as of now.

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