Liberaali

I'm a Pacifist.

Suomalainen pasifisti joka ei halua ajaa valtiota konkurssiin.

[Reuters @Reuters]

EXCLUSIVE: US has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war, sources say https://t.co/1rXWjY3i00 https://t.co/1rXWjY3i00

[Theti Mapping @ThetiMapping]

There’s an acute Ukrainian manpower shortage along the Velykyi Burluk direction. I would separate this theater into three smaller sectors: the eastern flank approaching Vilkhuvatka, the northern flank along the Vovcha River, and the western flank approaching Bilyi Kolodyaz.

Here are rough estimates for the number of accessible combat forces (infantry/rifle/assault elements) on the ground and in the rear that are currently deployed.

East: (orange)

129th Heavy Mechanized Brigade
3rd Heavy Mechanized Brigade
Sibir Battalion

1,150–1,350

North: (purple)

3rd (517th) Battalion, 1st Special Purpose Territorial Defense Brigade
1st Mobile Border Guard Brigade “Hart”
94th Chop Border Detachment
420th Unmanned Strike Battalion “HORT”

1,300-1,500

West: (yellow)

159th Mechanized Brigade
11th Forpost Border Guard Brigade
113th Territorial Defense Brigade
127th Heavy Mechanized Brigade
57th Motorized Brigade
710th Guard Brigade, State Transport Special Service 9th Reconnaissance Battalion

3,250-3,500

For a 130km span of the front line there is only a readily accessible pool of 5,700-6,350 ground forces to hold the perimeter, conduct active defense against Russian assault squads, and clear the rear of DRGs. This thin infantry deployment is compounded by the porosity of the northeastern Kharkiv front.

Note my estimates don't include auxiliary roles such as headquarters staffers, logistics, engineers, etc. It does include infantry attached to brigades that are active along this part of the front but are currently rotated out.

Depending on the measuring points, there is a 9.5-10km gap between the Vovcha River line and Bilyi Kolodyaz. There are very few built-up hamlets in the interim that can serve as forward positions for even a modest number of defenders in cellars or basements.

The large gap between the front line and Ukraine’s makeshift rear positions consists of balkas, gullies, ravines, treelines, ponds, dirt/gravel roads, and open field plots that feed directly into Bilyi Kolodyaz and adjacent towns. There is a scant amount of trenches, dragon’s teeth, anti-tank ditches, and barbed wire in this gap, but it was not built in a unified manner and largely focuses on protecting the perimeter of BK itself.

The lack of fortifications is even more pronounced on the “northern flank,” which spans from the Vovcha to the Plotva Rivers (upwards of a 20km gap). This sector covers ~75km of the front line, making it extremely difficult to defend in its entirety with two understaffed Border Guard brigades, one TDF battalion, and one drone unit.

Deep Russian infiltrations in this broader sector became apparent by July 22nd, yet we have not seen any notable reinforcements moved in to ameliorate this saturation-laden front. Instead, the Commander-in-Chief and General Staff have so far opted to keep the 79th, 80th, 82nd, and 95th Air Assault Brigades deployed on the Dnipro/Donetsk/Zaporizhzhia borderlands to continue counterattacks at a time when urgent replenishments are also needed in the Dobropillia, Druzhkivka, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk directions.

The easiest solution is for Ukraine to further diminish its presence in Kupyansk and on the eastern bank of the Oskil River in order to free up manpower for more critical clashes unfolding further north. Some units that could be moved include the 101st Guard, 151st Mechanized, 5th National Guard, 12th Heavy Mechanized, and 6th Border Guard Detachment brigades, these are the ones deployed closest to the Kharkiv “northeastern corner.”

[Heyman_101 @SU_57R]

🇷🇺🇺🇦 @AMK_Mapping_ reports that Russian frontline bombers (SU-34s) have begun to operate within 15km of the frontline. Several days ago, sorties were recorded within 10km.

The attrition of Ukraine's air defense capability has not only left the city of Kyiv open to ballistic missile attacks, but also allows Russian bombers to have almost complete air superiority along the frontline.

I first noticed the shift back in June when Russia began a campaign of airstrikes against the city of Zaporozhye, indicating the city's lack of air defense capabilities. We are now seeing reports of Pavlovgrad being targeted by glide bombs and we will likely soon see Dnepropetrovsk aswell. Additionally, Russia has begun flying strike "packages" towards the city of Odessa. Several SU-34 bombers are being accompanied by a pair of SU-35s, sometimes even solo, when conducting missile strikes over the Black Sea towards Odessa.

I doubt this rate of attrition continues, but if it does, it could get very ugly for Ukraine.

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@WAServers @patriottakes @WhiteHouse But you people said that Trump fixed everything months ago?

[Heyman_101 @SU_57R]

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian Geran-4 drones continue to strike Ukrainian cargo ships in the ports of Odessa and Mykolaiv.

Also, several ships were struck in the Black Sea.

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@sentdefender Iran war has proven they cannot fight China. US would run out of SAM's in a week or less

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

The U.S. Army has used up “virtually all” of its stockpile of highly accurate long-range missiles during the last five months since the start of the Iran War - munitions which would be crucial in any conflict with China - including most of its stock of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), three people familiar with the data tell Reuters.

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@pvesterbacka Miksi se hajoaisi?

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@lshredder42 @CallunaVulgaria @ZedSoxs Were Mr. Bibis parents born in Israel?

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@jounituovinen Persuja ei ole järjellä siunattu. Kotimainen vastine magailijoille.

[Alan MacLeod @AlanRMacLeod]

Incredible: The Economist literally wants China to "apologize" for economically outcompeting the US 🙃🇨🇳

[Carl Zha @CarlZha]

Beyond parody

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@JayTC53 Isn't that the guy who gave Trump new Air Force One?

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@DystopianSuns @MemoryOffline You mean those Nvidias anime filters?

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

The end of the end of history.

The Economist now sees Leninism as the reason for China’s competitiveness. Wasn’t a whole-of-state approach supposed to be doomed? China’s escape from shock therapy was the first existential blow to neoliberalism. This is the nail in its coffin.

[Jostein Hauge @haugejostein]

Turns out socialism doesn't stifle innovation after all.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

ENTRY-LEVEL JOBS ARE VANISHING: NO-EXPERIENCE HIRING PLUNGES 73% IN JUST 4 YEARS

[The Golden Age @thegoldenaged]

Times have changed

[Liberaali @LiberalWorlds]

@Phil6gbrt @AMK_Mapping_ Finnish news dont even mention that Ukraine is now more or less landlocked country. They only report that Ukraine is taking back land and Russians are running away.