hiring is expensive
firing is awkward
other people just set up hermes agent
> drop one task on the board
> it splits into research, draft, publish
> specialist agents claim the pieces
> whole thing runs without you
same open source framework sitting in a github repo you scrolled past
they just stopped managing and started orchestratin
while you ask claude to write your captions
other people gave it hands
> it pulls the podcast
> finds the moment
> cuts the vertical
> burns the captions
then it goes on pages that get paid per view
same claude you have open right now
they just stopped using it like a search bar
this is how you create codex maxis
not by pretending the tool never breaks
by owning the broken run, resetting the limits, and treating builder time like it matters
Hi. Over the last 24 hours we had three separate small incidents that affected Codex reliability. Those are three too many and we are taking active steps for them to not reproduce.
I have reset usage limits for Codex across all paid plans. May the tokens flow again.
claude's only real edge was design
codex just shipped a product design plugin and quietly closed that gap
now it:
▹ audits your ui
▹ turns any idea (or url) into a working prototype
▹ one prompt ➪ 3 directions
▹ a clickable prototype you can actually tap through
▹ exports to figma with editable layers
▹ a live url for the whole team
ai is no longer one universal assistant
it's starting to work like a specialist
$1200 of chatgpt pro for free
takes 4 steps:
1/ active github
real repos, real commits
2/ profile thin?
ship a small project or contribute to open source first
3/ apply to codex for open source
drop your github
4/ wait for review
they approve pretty loosely
openai just gave me 6 months of chatgpt pro for free
~$1200
not a giveaway
not a referral
they're paying devs who actually build in open source
active github
real repos
real commits
the 2 months i went quiet
just paid for itself
openai just gave me 6 months of chatgpt pro for free
~$1200
not a giveaway
not a referral
they're paying devs who actually build in open source
active github
real repos
real commits
the 2 months i went quiet
just paid for itself
i was quiet for 2 months because i was deep in ai
not reading takes
not pretending to be early
building workflows, testing tools, turning prompts into things i can actually use
profile finally caught up today
celtics vs hawks - nba
i'm leaning hawks
why hawks:
▹ 16-3 post all star, elite form
▹ 12 straight home wins
▹ tatum out ➪ -primary creation for boston
▹ boston on b2b ➪ drop in pace and defense
▹ atl plays through tempo + chaos ➪ increases variance
market still pricing boston as a full-strength team
how to grab profit on the dhs shutdown while the crowd believes in empty political promises
prepared a deep audit of inefficiencies:
✘ "signed by the president" trap
▹ oracle rules require official enactment of the law, not just a news announcement of a deal
▹ the enrolling process for the final text after the vote takes 24 to 48 hours, which physically pushes the resolution date past march
✘ constitutional lag
▹ article 1, section 7 of the us constitution gives the president 10 days to sign a bill
▹ trump has no incentive to sign the law instantly while he uses the shutdown as leverage to push the save america act
✘ procedural deadlock
▹ debates over the save america act block the possibility of a quick vote, and senate rules require time for cloture
✘ lack of pressure
▹ the administration has separate multi year funding for deportations through obbva, so trump's main priority doesn't suffer from the shutdown
risks:
the only risk is a unanimous consent agreement in the senate and the house waiving the 72 hour review rule
which theoretically allows the law to be passed and signed within 24 hours
my plan:
entering "yes" on the "after march 31" outcome at 38 cents
will the fed raise rates in 2026
analyzed the current market on polymarket
prepared a detailed audit of why the crowd is dead wrong right now:
✘ the trump warsh trap
▹ the crowd believes that kevin warsh's nomination as fed chair guarantees rate cuts but ignores his reputation as an inflation hawk
▹ market participants project the president's desires onto the independent regulator forgetting about the fomc's "hawkish" wing that will block easing
✘ the energy trigger
▹ a 50% spike in oil prices due to the war with iran and the blockade of the strait of hormuz make a new inflationary shock inevitable
▹ rising fuel prices will add at least 0.8% to the pce index forcing the fed to conduct a "protective" rate hike to save its reputation
✘ institutional lag
▹ professional rate futures already price a 35% risk of a hike while polymarket is stuck at 13%
✘ system resilience
▹ with unemployment at 4.4% and gdp growth above trend the fed has no immediate reason to save the market despite inflationary pressure
risks:
the main risk is "demand destruction" where extreme oil prices trigger an immediate recession and push unemployment above 4.8% forcing the fed to cut rates
my plan:
entering "yes" on a rate hike at 13 cents
man city vs real madrid - ucl
i'm looking at man city on polymarket
why city
▹ they need to come back from 3 goals - this forces an all in game script
▹ at home, city almost always dominate and generate a high volume of chances
▹ real madrid will likely sit deep and play on counters - giving initiative to city
▹ even in a bad scenario, city can win the match but still not qualify
this isn't about who's better
it's about game structure
will oil reach $100 by the end of march and how to make money on it
analyzed the current market on polymarket
prepared a detailed audit of why the crowd is dead wrong right now:
✘ settlement trap
▹ the oracle only counts the price in a narrow 120 second closing window not intraday peaks
▹ on march 9 oil spiked to $119 but the settlement price was only $94.77
✘ rollover trap
▹ on march 18 the active month on polymarket shifts to the may contract
▹ due to backwardation it's $1 cheaper than the april one which automatically moves the price further from the target
✘ reserves factor
▹ g7 and iea countries have already started a coordinated release of oil from strategic reserves which completely covers the iranian deficit
✘ trump de-escalation
▹ the president's statement about ending the war has already tanked quotes by 11.9% in a session
▹ the prediction market is stagnant and is still pricing in old fear
✘ supply surplus
▹ global production surplus is 3.1m bpd
▹ fundamentally holding the price above $100 by the expiration time is practically impossible
risks:
the only real risk is an iranian kinetic attack on saudi refineries which would create a deficit that reserves can't cover
my plan:
▹ entering "no" on strikes above $100 at 59 cents
▹ taking "yes" on a drop below $80 at 71 cents as a bet on a return to fundamental values