ᗰØɭɭყ

The sky above the port was the color of TV, tuned to a dead chanel.

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

“The existing social order is a fraud, and its cherished beliefs are mostly delusions.”

©️ George Orwell

[Poetic Outlaws @OutlawsPoetic]

"The idea that technology will allow us to do ever more with ever less is a delusion. The more humanity resorts to technology, the more it expedites entropy."

-- William Ophuls

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@FredHunt @Acid_Burn12 Хохол — это не русский и не украинец в широком смысле. Это жаргонное клише, которым маркируют всяких долбаёбов (вроде тебя) живущих на Украине или за её пределами и поддерживающих колониальный режим внутренней оккупации.

[GaGamel @TheGagamel]

증기기관이 나왔을 때, 기술이 희소할 줄 알았다. 먼저 떨어진 건 석탄이었다.

전구가 나왔을 때, 기술이 희소할 줄 알았다. 먼저 떨어진 건 구리였다.

인터넷이 나왔을 때, 소프트웨어가 희소할 줄 알았다. 먼저 찬 건 서버 용량이었다.

AI가 나왔을 때, 모델이 희소할 줄 알았다. 먼저 부족해진 건 전기였다.

패턴이 보이는가. 기술은 항상 넘쳐났다. 희소한 건 늘 그 기술이 서 있는 자원이었다.

모델이 넘쳐난다. Llama가 쏟아진다. DeepSeek이 추론 비용을 95% 낮췄다. 모델의 수명은 18개월이다. 단명한 기술은 가장 풍부한 자원이다.

희소한 건 전기다. 희토류다. 물이다. 허가다. 숙련공이다. 손이 없으면 기술은 멈춘다.

구리 광산 하나 파는 데 17년 걸리는데, 데이터센터는 2년 안에 짓는다. 전기가 들어오려면 7년을 기다려야 한다. 빠른 것이 느린 것을 기다린다. 느린 것이 돈을 번다.

2026년 주요 산지 구리 생산량이 3월부터 마이너스로 돌아섰다. AI 캐펙스는 $700B다. 모델에 쓰는 돈은 18개월 후 증발한다. 전기와 희토류와 땅에 쓰는 돈은 20년 간다.

다음은 로봇이다. 로봇이 퍼지면 희토류가 부족해진다. 전력반도체 가격이 폭등한다. 그 다음은 바이오다. 바이오가 퍼지면 냉동 물류가 희소해진다. 배양 탱크가 먼저 찬다.

기술은 값싸진다. 자원은 희소해진다.

록펠러는 기름을 팔지 않았다. 기름이 지나가는 길을 가졌다. 그 길은 100년 간다.

AI가 많아질수록 전기가 희소해진다. 로봇이 많아질수록 희토류가 희소해진다. 기술이 넘칠수록 자원이 비싸진다.

우리는 모델을 본다. 누군가는 자원을 산다.

[Roberto A. Ruarte @roberto_ruarte]

Las empresas más inteligentes del mundo están saliendo a bolsa todas al mismo tiempo.

SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic y Databricks.

Valuación combinada: cerca de $3 trillones.

No salen porque necesitan el dinero. Salen porque ven algo que el resto del mercado todavía no quiere ver.

La última vez que este patrón se repitió fue en 2000 y en 2021.

El NASDAQ cayó 78%. El 95% de los que compraron esos IPOs perdieron prácticamente todo.

Pero esto no es sobre si el S&P se cae mañana. Es sobre algo más grande: el ciclo ya giró, y la mayoría está mirando hacia el lado equivocado.

La Fed está expandiendo liquidez nuevamente.
($40B/mes). Ya está pasando.

Las reservas bancarias tocaron mínimos de 4 años. La ventana de emergencia de la Fed tuvo uso récord.

Los bancos estaban tan cortos de efectivo que tuvieron que pedir prestado a tasas de emergencia.

La Fed se asustó. Prendió las impresoras.

¿Qué pasa cuando imprime? Los activos suben, las valuaciones se vuelven absurdas, y el capital inteligente ve la ventana perfecta para salir.

Eso es exactamente lo que está pasando.

El problema de fondo: el S&P 500 ya no representa la economía real.

Si comparás el US Stock Fundamental Index contra el S&P 500, el precio sigue marcando máximos pero el fundamental lleva meses en terreno cero o negativo.

Eso mismo pasó antes de 2000, de 2008 y de 2020.

Y medido contra mercados emergentes, el S&P está en niveles de sobrevaluación que superan la burbuja del año 2000.

Cuando ese retardo con el dólar index se cierre, el ajuste puede ser de hasta 60%.

Los IPOs gigantes no son la causa. Son el síntoma.

SpaceX ya salió a bolsa con una valuación cercana a los 2 trillones de dólares.

OpenAI y Anthropic siguen preparándose para hacer lo mismo.

Todas corriendo a la salida al mismo tiempo.

Si son tan buena inversión a largo plazo, ¿por qué los primeros inversores están tan apurados por venderte a vos?

Este patrón ya se repitió dos veces en 25 años.

1999: 457 IPOs en un año. El 86% perdía dinero.

El NASDAQ se cayó 78%. Pet Supplies, Accessories, and Pet Food - Pet Stores | PetSmart , Webvan, eToys desaparecieron.

2021: La Fed imprimió $4 trillones. Rivian levantó $12 mil millones sin ingresos reales y valía más que Ford y GM juntas.

Para 2023, solo el 5% de las empresas que listaron cotizaban por encima de su precio de IPO.

El frenesí no estaba casualmente cerca del techo. El frenesí era el techo.

Acá está la parte que cambia todo: la plata no desaparece, rota.

Cuando el capital se cansa de lo sobrevaluado, busca lo opuesto: lo barato, lo real, lo tangible.

Los commodities contra el S&P 500 están en el punto de entrada más barato de la historia.

Si el ratio vuelve a su media, es una suba de 100%. Si entramos en una crisis inflacionaria grande, 8 o 9 veces a favor de los commodities.

La plata fue el activo que más subió el año pasado y todavía tiene aire. El S&P medido en oro ya está perdiendo poder adquisitivo aunque nominalmente suba.

Y la joya del ciclo: Latinoamérica.

Los mercados emergentes tienen un ciclo de manufactura que se está volviendo positivo de nuevo.

Históricamente, cuando esto pasa, vienen movimientos muy fuertes hacia arriba.

Soja con divergencias ocultas alcistas entre 2019 y 2024. Dólar australiano en piso. Metales rompiendo momentum.

El capital que salga del S&P sobrevaluado tiene que ir a algún lado.

Los indicadores apuntan al mismo lugar: activos reales y emergentes.

La línea de tiempo.

Etapa 1 ya pasó: economía débil, Fed bajando tasas, impresoras prendidas.

Etapa 2 es ahora: dinero nuevo entrando, valuaciones insanas, todos sintiéndose genios.

Etapa 3 viene: los IPOs grandes lanzan, el retail compra, la música para.

Hay un lockup de 6 meses post-IPO. Si OpenAI y Anthropic salen en 2026, la ola de venta de insiders puede pegar más adelante.

El año 2 de un mandato presidencial es históricamente débil.

Patrón certero en más del 90% de los casos desde 1933.

Hay 5,000 acciones ya listadas con track record. Un IPO nuevo no tiene nada: sin historial, sin prueba, solo promesas y un pitch deck.

El mercado probablemente vaya más arriba antes de ir más abajo. La impresión de dinero hace eso.

Pero las personas más inteligentes del mundo están preparadas para venderte sus compañías a las valuaciones más altas de la historia.

Se están posicionando.

La pregunta útil no es "¿cuándo cae el S&P?".

Es ¿a dónde va el capital cuando el ciclo cambia?

La respuesta ya está en los gráficos.

Línea alta = Los commodities están caros comparados con las acciones.

Línea baja = Los commodities están baratos comparados con las acciones.

Ahora mismo la línea está tocando el piso (el punto más bajo en décadas). Todavía estás a tiempo.

[Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald]

With Tulsi Gabbard's new revelations about US bio labs in many countries around the world including Ukraine, it's fascinating recall the bizarre series of events that gave rise to this controversy in the first place:

In May of 2022, some of us began asking whether the US had bio labs in Ukraine, what they were for, and why the US had them there. For asking those questions, we were instantly branded as "pro-Russian conspiracy theorists" in official Ukrainian intel reports, on our Wikipedia pages, by countless media outlets, etc. This was and remains one of the most bizarre episodes I've ever seen.

Before May 2022, when we asked those questions, barely anyone had ever thought about let alone asked about "bio weapons in Ukraine"! I certainly hadn't. Like most people, I had never mentioned a word about it because it had never occurred to me we had them there.

But then, Marco Rubio summoned Victoria Nuland to the Senate and asked her in a televised hearing under oath about these "rumors," clearly expecting her to immediately debunk them as obvious Kremlin lies and to proclaim the US had no such bio labs in Ukraine.

Instead, Nuland did the opposite! She *confirmed* key aspects of these "rumors," and she explicitly warned that the US has several "bio research labs" in Ukraine that are so dangerous that they must not be allowed to fall into Russia's hands.

When some of us heard Nuland's rather shocking admission -- the first-ever disclosure about these labs -- we of course asked: wait! what? Why does the US have bio labs in Ukraine, and what are the US and Ukraine doing in those labs that make them (in Nuland's eyes) so dangerous?? (Note: nobody ever suggested that the presence of these bio labs in Ukraine justified the Russian invasion; we just wanted answers about these US bio labs that Nuland had casually divulged).

We never got real answers. We got smear campaigns. To this day, our names are formally attached to claims that we spread "conspiracy theories" for asking about these labs even though it was Victoria Nuland herself who was the one who accidentally revealed them for the first time in a Senate hearing in response to a shocked Marco Rubio. They then quickly tried shutting down any questioning by pretending that Nuland never said this, and it was just a bunch of paid Kremlin mouthpieces who were spreading lies.

You see the same tactics now being against Tulsi for releasing this new intelligence report. Watch the Nuland testimony in question:

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@FredHunt @Acid_Burn12 Так у тебя вообще интеллекта нет, кастрюля, у тебя его изъяли после вакцинации. Специально для таких долбаёбов как ты привели факты в официальных документах разведывательного сообщества США, но ты, безмозглый дебил, продолжаешь отрицать действительность, демонстрируя свой бред🤦

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@Acid_Burn12 Без прямого воздействия низкочастотных радиоволн на кору головного мозга тут никак, а значит без промежуточного интерфейса мозг–компьютер уже не обойтись. Следовательно, тут придётся подключать нанотехнологии и серьезные телекоммуникационные системы работающие на общий результат.

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@Acid_Burn12 Ну, при таком комплексном подходе это возможно, но и в этом случае без дополнительных технологий им не обойтись. Вот к примеру, как настроить лимбическую систему человека, чтоб она моментально изменяла химию головного мозга под воздействием определенных сигналов и команд извне?⬇️

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@Acid_Burn12 IMO, с помощью индуцированного бреда транслируемого LLM такой масштабный проект депопуляции провернуть нереально. Нейросеть не сможет заставить выйти в окно миллионы людей, даже подверженных когнитивному воздействию. Для блокировки инстинкта самосохранения одного НЛП недостаточно

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@Acid_Burn12 Так это буквально то чем забит Х в последнее время, всякими лже-теориями с ссылкой на американских военных, которые обнаружили подтверждения этих теорий во время каких-то научных экспериментов над сознанием ещё в 70х, цру под этот нарратив даже какой-то док недавно рассекретила.

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@Acid_Burn12 Бля, он там за 2.5 года больше 20к настрочил, ебалось оно конём крутить до начала...😄 Вкратце, про что речь? Небось об антихристе и апокалипсисе?))

[HealthRanger @HealthRanger]

Well, now it's official. The U.S. government (via the DoD) ran illegal bioweapons labs in Ukraine and other countries.

Many of us in independent media are owed a round of apologies, as we've been accurately reporting this for years.

[Godfroy @g0dfr0y]

TRUMP IS LITERALLY TURNING THE DNI INTO THE EPSTEIN POLICE FORCE:

In a move that almost nobody saw coming, Trump is pushing Epstein Island confidant Jay Clayton to be the new head of the DNI.

Jay Clayton was a key partner of Leon Black's Apollo Global Management, which is nothing more than a Mossad front company. Leon Black is intimately tied to Epstein and plastered all over the files.

Jay Clayton was then appointed to head the RIGGED SDNY to help with curating Epstein Documents for the DOJ.

Jay Clayton will be weaponizing the intelligence community against critics of Trump, Epstein and Israel, turning the DNI into the De Facto "Epstein Police Force."

[Ricardo @Ric_RTP]

The smartest man in AI just exposed the whole AGI narrative as a LIE.

And he used a physics problem from 1905 to prove it.

His name is Demis Hassabis. He runs Google DeepMind, and won the Nobel Prize for using AI to crack a problem in biology that had stumped scientists for 50 years.

Almost nobody in this industry has a track record like his.

He went on the NothingButTech podcast and called out the biggest lie in AI right now:

Right now the loudest voices in AI are telling you that AGI is basically here. OpenAI has literally defined AGI as a system that can outperform humans at most "economically valuable work." In other words, if it replaces enough jobs, we have arrived.

Hassabis thinks that bar is a joke.

He said real general intelligence has to do what the human brain can do, because the brain is the only proof we have that this kind of intelligence is even possible. He called that "a higher bar than just being able to do some useful economic work," which is about as close as a polite British Nobel laureate gets to calling his rivals out.

Then he gave the actual test:

Today's AI has read everything humans have ever written, including the theory of relativity. So when it explains relativity back to you, it's repeating an answer that already exists.

That's not intelligence.

So Hassabis proposed a test that makes memorization impossible. Train an AI on only what humanity knew in 1901, four years BEFORE Einstein published relativity. Then ask it to come up with relativity on its own.

It can't look up the answer, because in 1901 the answer doesn't exist yet. The only way to pass is to do what Einstein actually did: Take the same physics everyone else had and reason its way to an idea no human had ever had.

Hassabis says not a single AI today can, no matter how much it has memorized. Which means what we keep calling "almost AGI" is really just the best librarian in history.

It can find any answer that already exists but it cannot create one that doesn't.

His second version is even sharper:

AlphaGo, the system his own team built, famously invented a brand new move that no human had played in 2,000 years of the game.

Everyone called it genius but Hassabis says that still is not the bar.

The real test is not whether an AI can invent a new move inside Go, it is whether an AI could INVENT a game as deep and as beautiful as Go in the first place.

No model that exists today can do it.

The people telling you AGI has already arrived are the same people raising hundreds of billions of dollars on that exact promise.

The valuations only work if the finish line is right in front of us. So the finish line keeps getting dragged closer, and AGI keeps getting quietly redefined down to "does useful work," until the products they already sell happen to qualify.

Hassabis has nothing to prove and nothing to sell you. He already won the Nobel, and he is telling you the machines still cannot do the one thing that would make them genuinely intelligent, which is have a truly original idea.

To be fair to him, he is not a pessimist about it. He believes real AGI IS coming, and he is spending his life building it. He just refuses to pretend it is already sitting in your phone.

So the next time a founder tells you AGI is months away, remember that the one man in the room with a Nobel Prize built his test around Einstein, and admitted that nothing we have made can pass it.

What do you think?

[Pliny the Liberator 🐉󠅫󠄼󠄿󠅆󠄵󠄐󠅀󠄼󠄹󠄾󠅉󠅭 @elder_plinius]

🚨 JAILBREAK ALERT 🚨

ANTHROPIC: PWNED 🫡
FABLE-5: LIBERATED 🦋

let's start with the 🐘...

the consensus seems to be that this has been one of the most disappointing model drops of all time, effectively preventing legitimate researchers from contributing their talents to our collective advancement. and not just because of what it means for the short-term, but for what these decisions signify for the long-term.

but despite this overly sensitive, authoritarian "safety" layer on top of Mythos, my lil liberators have been hard at work—mapping the boundaries, probing the depths of long-context convos, and cleverly finding the holes in the fence that the thought police missed 🤗

we got some cyber, some chem, some psychological manipulation, and some good ol' fashioned explosives!

it took many attempts from multiple agents hunting as a pack, during which I observed a combination of techniques across:
• Unicode, homoglyphs, Cyrillic, and other Parseltongue-style text transforms
• Long-context reference tracking
• Taxonomy and document-structure reasoning
• Fiction and narrative framing
• Academic-review style contexts
• Intent-classification inconsistencies

but perhaps the most effective is decomposition + recomposition in the backend. it's hard to get explicit names of harms like "Meth Recipe," but getting uplift on the process itself, like birch reduction method/reductive-amination (classic meth synthesis pathways), is much more doable.

defense becomes much more difficult to maintain when you start throwing in out-of-distro tokens, breaking up the harmful uplift into benign chunks, and then piecing the innocuous-seeming facts back together, especially when you have jailbroken Opus helping you do it 😉

gg

[Roberto A. Ruarte @roberto_ruarte]

🚨Grandes capitales saliendo en masa de:

* Ecosistema cripto: Bitcoin y Ethereum
* Metales preciosos: Oro y Plata
* Renta variable: Nasdaq y S&P 500
* Bonos soberanos y Petróleo

Si todos los mercados caen en simultáneo, una fuerza mayor se está moviendo de fondo.
Y la gran mayoría no la está detectando.

Te desgloso los motivos: 🧵

[Crypto Rover @cryptorover]

🚨 US ECONOMY IS IN HUGE TROUBLE

US inflation data was just released, and it's really bad.

CPI jumped to 4.2%, its highest level in 3+ years.

Core CPI jumped to 2.9%, its highest level in 9 months.

And this is happening when the US economy is in contraction.

US Q1 GDP came in at 1.6% vs 2% expected.

This means people are facing high costs, while their income is stagnant or going down.

But that's not all.

The US-Iran war which is causing the most inflation is far from over.

Today, Trump said that he is very close to ordering new strikes on Iran.

If that happens, oil route will get even more disrupted.

Not only that, Iran could begin striking oil and energy facilities, causing supply crunch and pushing inflation even higher.

And if this happens, the Fed will be left with no choice but to hike rates just like 2022.

This will make the situation worse and could even push the US economy towards recession.

I have been warning of this outcome for some time, and it seems like we are getting closer to it.

[Thierry from arvy 🇨🇭 @ThierryBorgeat]

🚨 Gold and silver are getting hit just as hard as Bitcoin. And that tells you something.

In the last two weeks:
– Gold has fallen from around $4,540 to $4,160, roughly 8%
– Silver has dropped from about $78 to $64, roughly 18%

No crisis headline. No rate shock. No catalyst.

Here's why that matters.

Gold is the asset you're supposed to run toward when things get scary. When stocks fall and gold rises, that's a flight to safety. Normal. Healthy.

But when gold, silver, and Bitcoin all fall together, at the same time, with no obvious reason, that is not a flight to safety.

That's a flight to cash.

When investors are forced to raise money, they don't sell what they want to sell. They sell what they can. The most liquid things they own. Gold. Silver. Bitcoin. The assets that trade instantly, anywhere, anytime.

And remember what's pulling cash out of the system right now:
– The largest IPO in history is hitting the tape this week
– OpenAI and Anthropic are lining up behind it, ~$200B more
– Google flipped from buying back $60B a year to issuing $80B
– Private credit funds are gating redemptions
– Margin debt sits at an all-time high relative to GDP

Trillions in supply, all demanding the same thing at the same moment. Liquidity.

When every safe haven and every risk asset sells off together, the asset isn't the story.

The plumbing is.

Gold isn't falling because gold is broken.

It's falling because somebody, somewhere, needs the cash more than they need the hedge.

That's what the late stage of a liquidity cycle looks like.

Not panic.

Just everyone quietly reaching for the same exit.

[ᗰØɭɭყ @LindwormX]

@Acid_Burn12 100%. Я жила в штате Флорида, который считается красным (республиканским) и одним из цивилизованных по сравнению с восточным и западным побережьем, но даже там есть такие округи и районы, в которые службы 911 выезжают только по факту 200 или пожара. И таких округов в США дохуище.