$BTC
One of the more interesting patterns I've found from backtesting 8.5 years of Bitcoin data is how often the monthly high or low is established during the first 10 days of the month.
Over 102 monthly candles:
• 42.2% printed their monthly high in the first 10 days.
• 45.1% printed their monthly low in the first 10 days.
Both are materially higher than the 33.3% you'd expect if highs and lows were randomly distributed throughout the month.
Even more interesting, every one of the last five months has established its monthly high or low within the first 10 days.
That makes the first third of July particularly important.
If this range is going to produce another capitulation flush, history suggests there's a higher-than-random probability it happens early in the month.
Likewise, if BTC spends the first 10 days defending support and setting the monthly low, then the probability of a stronger second half of July begins increasing.
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$BTC
For the first time, BTC is currently testing the highest monthly close from the previous cycle top.
We never saw that happen in either the 2018 or 2022 bear markets.
In those cycles, BTC never came back to test the highest monthly closes from the 2014 or 2017 cycle tops.
So, I think July is going play quite a large role in shaping the rest of this bear market.
This is a reasonable area to see monthly support hold and produce some counter-trend action.
Apart from the 2021 cycle top, this region also acted as a major base throughout 2024 before BTC eventually rallied toward $126K.
Therefore, we have a considerable amount of historical price action and liquidity sitting at this level.
If we continue following prior bear market behaviour, July has typically been where the final Q3 relief rally begins before the latter stages of the bear market.
The ideal scenario would be a wick below this monthly support into the mid-$50Ks, setting the monthly low for July, before reclaiming the level and closing the month green.
That would fit the historical pattern almost perfectly.
But if July continues the downtrend and closes below this pivot, then we're looking at something structurally very different.
BTC would be losing a monthly support level it has never had to defend before, while also breaking the historical pattern of the mid-cycle rally beginning in that period.
That would be one of the most bearish structural developments we've seen this cycle.
And in my opinion, it would open the door to testing the boundaries of $50K and below.